Is There Any Value Left in Tech?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is There Any Value Left in Tech?
  • Jackson Hole Powell Speech Preview
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly lower despite generally solid economic data overnight.

EU and UK August flash PMIs were mostly solid, with Composite PMIs rising for both regions and staying above 50.

Today is a busy day of economic data and the key reports, in order of importance, are:   Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.7), Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0), Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Philly Fed (E: 8.0), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.90 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  Especially with the flash PMIs, solid data that pushes back on any slowdown narrative will be welcomed by stocks.  There is also one Fed speaker today, Bostic at 7:30 a.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, notable retailer results continue today with WMT ($0.73), while there are some other notable reports as well: BILI ($0.08), ZM ($0.77), INTU ($1.30), WDAY ($0.80), ROST ($1.52).

 

Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention
  • Housing Starts Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower but off session lows as the recent tech-led stock market pullback is being digested as the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium comes into focus.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% on the headline and 2.3% on the core figure which is easing recently elevated concerns about a broad-based resurgence in global inflation pressures, subsequently helping equities bounce off the lows.

There are no economic reports today, however the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and investors will be scouring the details for any new insights on Fed policy plans for H2’25.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Waller (11:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (3:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on investor growth/inflation expectations (and therefore could most stocks).

Finally, retailers continue to dominate earnings news this week with multiple notable major corporations reporting quarterly results today including: TGT ($2.09), EL ($0.08), TJX ($1.01), LOW ($4.23), BIDU ($1.32), and COTY ($0.01). Evidence of ongoing consumer resilience would be a positive for risk assets and likely help stocks stabilize from the early week pullback today.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Market’s Perspective on Peace Efforts in Ukraine
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are slightly lower amid a “sell-the-news” reaction to the lack of a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine after President Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky.

There were no notable economic reports overnight leaving investors focused on geopolitics and retailer earnings.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.290M), and following yesterday’s soft Housing Market Index release, a soft number could weigh further on currently fragile, albeit still resilient, investor sentiment towards the economy.

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on conviction for a September Fed rate cut (the stronger the demand for the Bills, the better) while one Fed official is scheduled to speak in the afternoon: Bowman (2:10 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are some important retailer/consumer earnings this week with notables reporting today to include: HD ($4.71), MDT ($1.23), TOL ($3.59), SQM ($0.52). It will be important for earnings to continue to show consumer spending trends remain resilient, otherwise economic worries could weigh on markets this week.

 

Two Events That Could Actually Cause a Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Events That Could Actually Cause A Pullback
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About the Fed (Does Powell Signal A September Cut on Friday?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth Updates This Week (Do They Push Back on Stagflation Worries?)

Futures are slightly lower as the Trump/Putin summit produced no substantial changes in the war amidst an otherwise quiet weekend (market focus is on Powell’s speech Friday and whether he hints at a Sept rate cut, or not)

The Trump/Putin summit resulted in neither a ceasefire nor the threat of oil sanctions and as such, the market is largely ignoring the event.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Focus today will be on geo-politics with President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.  From a market standpoint, its focus remains on oil prices.  If the cease fire efforts fail and Trump again threatens oil sanctions on China and other countries buying Russian crude, that will push oil prices higher and put a headwind on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 34) and an important earnings report after the close (Palo Alto Networks, PANW ($0.50).  Given last week’s underwhelming tech reports, markets will want to see a solid result.

 

Why the Hot PPI Threatens Multiple Pillars of the Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Hot PPI Threatens Multiple Pillars of the Rally

Futures are little changed despite soft Chinese economic data and disappointing earnings.

Economically, Chinese data was soft as Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales all missed expectations.

On earnings, Applied Materials (AMAT) gave weak guidance and is down –15% pre-market, weighing on tech.

Today focus will be on economic data and for stocks to rally into the end of the week, we need to see solid reports (and avoid any weak reports that further stagflation anxiety).  The key report today is Retail Sales (E: 0.5%), although Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 0.5), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 62.1) are all notable as well.  Bottom line, solid growth data and tame inflation expectations in Consumer Sentiment would help stocks finish the week strong.

 

What Happens If AI Loses Momentum?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Happens if AI Loses Momentum?
  • Oil Update and Weekly EIA Takeaways

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news and as CSCO earnings largely met expectations.

Economically, data was mixed in Europe as UK GDP (0.4% vs. (E) 0.2%) and Industrial Production (0.7% vs. (E) 0.5%) beat estimates while EU GDP met estimates (0.1%) but Industrial Production missed (badly) (-1.3% vs. (E) -0.5%).

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are two notable reports today: Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y).  Of the two, PPI is more important and if it confirms the mostly tame CPI reading from Tuesday, it will further solidify rate cut expectations and support stocks.  There is also one Fed speaker today, Barkin (2:00 p.m. ET), and given recent conflicting commentary from voting members on the FOMC, the tone of each speaker will become more important.

Finally, mid-season earnings continue and some notable reports today include: JD ($0.44), AMAT ($2.34), NTES ($1.85), DE ($4.62), AAP ($0.59), NU ($0.13).

 

What About the Yield Curve?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What About the Yield Curve (Recession Signal “On Hold”)
  • What CPI Means for Markets

Futures are trading at record highs, tracking global shares higher as traders cheer the latest evidence of benign inflation pressures despite the global trade war.

Economically, German CPI was unchanged at 2.0% in July, meeting consensus analyst estimates.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today however there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on investor expectations of Fed policy rates between now and year-end which could move markets.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed speakers including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bostic (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, there are some late season earnings releases to watch: EAT ($2.43), CSCO ($0.80), EQX ($0.02) but none are likely to materially move markets today.

 

Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)
  • Gold Chart: Fragile Record Highs

Futures are flat as traders look ahead to today’s all-important CPI report.

Economically, the U.K.’s Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.7%, as expected, while the German ZEW Survey missed estimates, but the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 vs. (E) 98.9 from 98.6 in June.

Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

After the open, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET) and Schmid (10:30 a.m. ET), and any comments or insights they may offer in reaction to the CPI data could move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are a handful of companies due to report quarterly results today which could move markets, including: CAH ($2.03), SE ($0.72), RGTI ($-0.05), HRB ($2.81), CRCL ($-1.29), and ETOR ($0.49).

 

August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Clarity Coming on Geo-politics, Trade and Inflation?  (If so, it’d be Positive for Stocks)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Inflation and Growth Updates via CPI and Retail Sales

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

News flow was minimal over the weekend but investors are looking forward to another important week for geo-politics (Russia/Ukraine ceasefire?), trade (China tariff extension?) and stagflation (CPI and Retail Sales).

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Italian CPI, which met expectations (0.4% m/m, 1.7% y/y).

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on geopolitics and trade.  Any headlines that hint at a ceasefire in Ukraine and/or confirm an extension of current Chinese tariff rates will be a mild tailwind on stocks.

 

AI Bubble Watch: Part 2

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • AI Bubble Watch: Part 2

Futures are slightly higher following more mixed trade news.

Japanese stocks rallied after an announcement that the U.S. would “fix” an issue of tariff stacking that would result in some tariff reduction.

On gold, the U.S. may apply tariffs to Swiss gold imports, possibly disrupting to global physical gold trade.

Economically, there were no notable reports overnight.

There are no notable economic reports today but there are two Fed speakers, Musalem (10:20 a.m. ET) and Bowman, and if they join the growing “dovish” camp and hint at a September rate cut, that should help support markets.