Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview

Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report and following solid tech earnings overnight.

Semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) beat estimates and offered bullish guidance and the stock is up 9% pre-market and that’s helping to lift futures.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates, felling –2.9% vs. (E) 0.5%.

Focus today will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  E: 77K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate, 3.8% Wage Growth.  Any job adds number in the mid to low 100k range would be ideal for stocks as it would keep rate cut expectations high but also signal a stable labor market.  Conversely, if job adds drop close to zero (or even go negative even with revisions) it’ll increase concerns the labor market is cooling, boost slowdown fears and likely hit stocks.

 

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are slightly higher despite underwhelming earnings and mixed economic data overnight.

Salesforce (CRM) guidance was underwhelming and the stock is down –7% pre-market, adding to pressure on tech.

Economically, UK retail sales missed estimates (-0.5% vs. (E) -0.1%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on two of the three remaining important events of the week:  The ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and Broadcom (AVGO) earnings after the close.  Ideally, markets will want to see the ISM Services PMI move higher and not drop below 50, while strong AVGO earnings ($1.35) and guidance will help push back on some of the recent tech sector weakness that’s been a headwind for the S&P 500.

Other notable events today include ADP Employment (E: 68K), Jobless Claims (E: 232K) and two Fed speakers: Williams (12:05 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (7:00 p.m. ET).  Broadly speaking, the stronger the two employment reports and the more dovish the Fed speakers, the better for this market.

Finally, other earnings today include LULU ($2.84) and DOCU ($0.23).

 

How the “Degenerate Economy” Can Help Us Navigate This Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How the Degenerate Economy Can Help Us Navigate This Market
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

U.S. stock futures are solidly higher this morning, led by tech shares with GOOGL up 6%+ after a favorable court ruling saw the company avoid severe antitrust penalties while international stocks were mixed as bonds steadied in the wake of an early week spike in yields.

Economically, the final Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 51.0 vs. (E) 51.1 in August due to a weak Services index revision but the data is not materially moving markets focused on renewed tech sector strength this morning.

Today, focus will be on economic data early as jobs week kicks off the July JOLTS report (E: 7.375 million) while Factory Orders data from July will also be released mid-morning (E: -1.4%).

There are two Fed speakers today: Musalem (9:00 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:30 p.m. ET). As far as stocks are concerned the more dovish their tone, the better as investors are pricing in a September rate cut with a high degree of certainty.

Finally, late seasons earnings continue to be released with quarterly reports from DLTR ($0.38), HPE ($0.36), M ($0.19), CPB ($0.57), CRM ($2.12), AEO ($0.20), and AI (-$0.81) all due out today.

 

Three Key Market Variables to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Key Market Variables to Watch
  • Thoughts on the Appellate Court Decision (Why It’s Not a Positive for Stocks)
  • Weekly Economic Preview: “The Big Three” Reports Are Due This Week

U.S. stock futures are tracking global equity markets lower this morning as bond yields rise and gold hit fresh record highs amid a fresh sense of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Economically, the EU’s Narrow Core HICP Flash (CPI equivalent) held steady at 2.3% vs. (E) 2.2% in August which was not a big “miss” but is continuing to keep inflation worries elevated.

Looking into today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak but two economic reports to watch with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.7) and Construction Spending (E: +0.1%) data both due to be released.

Additionally, the Treasury will hold 6-Week, 3-Month, 6-Month and 52-Week Bill auctions simultaneously at 11:30 a.m. ET. The wide range of Bill durations being auctions could shed fresh light on the market’s outlook for Fed policy between now and yearend as well as H1’26.

Finally, some late season earnings continue to be released with quarterly reports due from both ZS (-$0.02 and SIG ($1.21) today.

Bottom line, if economic data is “Goldilocks” and supports the case for a soft-landing and Treasury auctions go smoothly (healthy demand), pointing to a September Fed rate cut, equities could recover early losses as focus turns to labor market data due out later in the week. If not, we could see a volatile start to September today, but follow-through selling is unlikely ahead of the key jobs report Friday.

 

Breakeven Inflation Rates: Powell Has a “Price Problem”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Breakeven Inflation Rates:  Powell Has a “Price Problem”

Futures are modestly lower following a night of underwhelming earnings.

Earnings overnight were bad as tech companies DELL (–6% pre-market) and MRVL (-15% pre-market) both posted disappointing results, as did retailer GAP.

Economically, German retail sales missed expectations (-1.5% vs. (E) 0.0%) but that isn’t moving markets.

Today focus will be on inflation via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and to keep things simple, if this number is “hot” (so Core PCE Price Index above 3.0% y/y) that will increase inflation concerns, push back on rate cut hopes and, likely, pressure stocks further.  The other notable economic report today is Consumer Sentiment (E: 58.6) and focus will be on the inflation expectations inside the report.  The less they rise from last month, the better.

 

Market Technical Assessment: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Technical Assessment:  Bitcoin vs. Ethereum

Futures are flat following very slightly underwhelming NVDA earnings amidst an otherwise quiet night of news.

NVDA beat earnings and revenue estimates but guidance didn’t meet very elevated expectations.  NVDA is down –2% pre-market but results weren’t disappointing enough to shake broader AI enthusiasm (so the slightly underwhelming NVDA earnings shouldn’t impact the broader market).

Today focus will be on economic data and the key report is Weekly Jobless Claims (E: 230K).  Claims jumped last week and if that continues this week we’ll see a small uptick in labor market anxiety ahead of next Friday’s jobs report (which could put a headwind on markets today).  Other economic reports today include Revised Q2 GDP (E: 3.1%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.2%) while we also have one Fed Speaker, Waller at 6:00 p.m. ET.  However, barring a major negative surprise, all of that is unlikely to move markets.

On the earnings front, the reports continue and important results we’re watching today include: BBY ($1.22), MRVL ($0.51) and DELL ($2.09).

 

Why NVDA Earnings Are So Important

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why NVDA Earnings Are So Important
  •  Why Markets Shrugged Off the Trump-Cook Drama
  • Durable Goods and Case-Shiller Data Takeaways

Futures are flat after a mostly quiet night of news as global traders await AI-behemoth NVDA’s quarterly earnings (due out after the close today).

Economically, Australian CPI jumped from 1.9% to 2.8% vs. (E) 2.3% in July, the latest global inflation release to surprise to the upside which is adding to concerns about a resurgence in price pressures across major economies as a result of the trade war.

There are no noteworthy economic releases in the U.S. today and just one Fed official scheduled to speak: Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET).

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact markets (yesterday’s solid 2-Yr auction results added a tailwind to the afternoon equity rally) with investors looking for more signs of strong demand.

With the limited list of catalysts today, markets should be quiet and trade with a positioning-style tone as investors await earnings from KSS ($0.33), ANF ($2.27), RY ($2.36), NVDA ($0.94), SNOW (-$0.57), HPQ ($0.75), and CRWD (-$0.19).

NVDA’s results will clearly be the primary focus as the chip-making giant accounts for roughly ~8% of the entire S&P 500; a miss could spark meaningful volatility while a positive surprise would likely see the major indexes make a run at all-time highs.

 

Is the NOB Spread Signaling a “Run Hot” Economy?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the NOB Spread Signaling a “Run Hot” Economy?

Futures are in the red but off their overnight lows as traders digest President Trump’s latest efforts to “fire” Fed Governor Cook, rekindling “Fed independence” concerns.

Economically, French Consumer Confidence fell 2 points to 87 vs. (E) 89 in August while Prime Minister Bayrou has called for a confidence vote on September 8, surrounding budget concerns which introduces a renewed sense of market uncertainty in Europe.

Looking into today’s session there are multiple noteworthy economic reports to watch today including Durable Goods (E: -4.0%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.6%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.0%), and likely most importantly, Consumer Confidence (E: 96.4).

There is one Fed official scheduled to speak: Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) as well as a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which could impact Treasuries and impact equity market trading today.

Finally, a handful of late season earnings releases are due out including: BMO ($2.12), BNS ($1.28), and OKTA ($0.33), but the main earnings catalyst this week will be NVDA’s release later in the week.

 

Were Powell’s Comments Really That Bullish?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Were Powell’s Comments Really That Bullish?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Tech Pullback Continue? (NVDA Earnings on Wednesday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Focus on Inflation (Core PCE Price Index on Friday)

Futures are modestly lower mostly on digestion of Friday’s big rally and following a quiet weekend of news.

Economically, the only notable report was German IFO Business Expectations, which jumped to a one year high (91.6 vs. (E) 90.8).

There was no notable geopolitical news over the weekend.

Today there are two economic reports, Chicago Fed (Prior: -0.10), New Home Sales (E: 628K) and two Fed speakers, Logan (3:15 p.m. ET) and Williams (7:15 p.m. ET), but none of that should move markets as the economic reports shouldn’t change the outlook for growth while Powell largely acknowledged a likely rate cut in September (making other Fed commentary less important).

On earnings, there are two reports to watch today: PDD ($1.69) and HEI ($1.12).

 

The Most Important Fed Speech of the Year (So Far)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Most Important Fed Speech of the Year (So Far)
  • Takeaways from Yesterday’s Sector Performance

Futures are seeing a modest bounce following a generally quiet night of news and head of Powell’s 10:00 a.m. ET speech.

Economically, German GDP declined more than expected, falling –0.3% vs. (E) -0.1%, adding to other hints of stagflation in the global data this week, although Japanese CPI met expectations (3.1% y/y).

There are no notable economic reports today so all the focus will be on Powell’s speech at 10:00 a.m. ET.  Market expectations are that he will signal he’s open to a rate cut in September, essentially reinforcing current market expectations.  If he does not and pushes back on rate cut hopes or ignores policy in his speech altogether, it will be a new market negative.

Finally, mid-season earnings (which have been mixed) continue with two notable reports today: BJ ($1.10), GFI ($0.59).