MMT Chart (December Edition)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (December Edition)

Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Thursday’s rally and as the BOJ rate decision was no worse than feared

The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps, as expected, but gave no indication when rates might rise again and the yen weakened 1% vs. the dollar.

Today focus will remain on economic data via another important inflation report, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and some growth data: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.15 million), Consumer Sentiment (E: 53.4).

The best outcome for stocks remains that the data generally hits expectations and it’s not so good it encourages the hawks to push back on further rate cuts, nor so weak it raises growth concerns.  Most of the data we’ve received this week (and really the last few weeks) has been that way and Goldilocks data is absolutely helping support this market.

 

December Market Multiple Table – Deterioration Across Market Influences

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • December Market Multiple Table – Deterioration Across Market Influences

Futures are seeing a solid rebound thanks to strong tech earnings and positive AI news.

Micron (MU) beat earnings estimates (stock up 11% pre-open) and, more importantly, gave robust guidance and that’s helping to reinforce AI Enthusiasm and lift tech and the entire market this morning.

Today will be a busy day of central bank decisions and economic data.  The most important economic report today is CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y), followed by Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and Philly Fed  (E: 2.2).  CPI needs to come in at or under expectations to push back on the hawkish Fed narrative and help support stocks.  Other economic data, meanwhile, needs to stay solidly positive to imply stable economic activity.

On the central bank front, we get a BOE Rate Decision (E: 25 bps cut) and ECB Rate Decision (E: No change) and as long as there are no hawkish surprises from either, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, some reports we’re watching today include:  ACN ($3.74), KMX ($0.32), DRI ($2.09), NKE ($0.37), FDX ($4.05), KBH ($1.79).

 

A “Santa Rally” Chart for Clients

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Interesting Chart to Show Clients: Santa Tends to Arrive in the Second Half of December
  • Economic Data Takeaways: November BLS, October Retail Sales, & December Flash PMIs

Futures are higher as cooler-than-anticipated inflation data in Europe is offsetting an uptick in geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West as leaders jawbone about ceasefire negotiation details.

Economically, Eurozone CPI cooled to 2.1% vs. (E) 2.4% while U.K. CPI fell to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.4%, both of which supported dovish money flows overnight.

Looking into today’s session, we will get another look at the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the bell with the November Retail Sales report due to be released (E: 0.2%) while data on Business Inventories (E: 0.2%) will also be reported. The former will be the key economic focus and investors will be looking for a healthy, “Goldilocks” print to support a relief rally.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and the stronger the demand measures are in each, the better for stocks and bonds today.

There are also three notable Fed speakers today: Waller (8:30 a.m. ET), Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), and Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET), and the more dovish their collective tone is, the better for risk assets.

Finally, there are some late season earnings still trickling in with quarterly reports due from JBL ($2.27), GIS ($1.02), TTC ($0.86), and MU ($3.67) today. Obviously, weak earnings could fuel a further decline in equities today while strong results would be well received.

 

Why Do Markets Like Warsh Over Hassett?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Do Markets Like Warsh Over Hassett?
  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are trading lower with global equities this morning thanks to soft economic data out of Europe overnight with focus shifting to the November BLS jobs report today.

Economically, the EU Flash Composite PMI fell to 51.9 vs. (E) 52.8 in December from 52.8 in November while the U.K. Unemployment Rate rose to a 4+ year high of 5.1%; both data points raised concerns about the health of the global economy.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the November BLS Employment Situation Report (E: 40K Job-Adds, 4.5% Unemployment Rate, 3.6% Wage Growth) and Retail Sales (E: 0.2%) due to be released ahead of the bell, both of which have the potential to move markets.

Additionally, data on Business Inventories (E: 0.2%), Housing Starts (E: 1.325M), the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.0) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.9) for December will also be released and could move markets.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and earnings season is slowing down materially with just one quarterly report due today: LEN ($2.23) which will leave investors primarily focused on the key economic data due out early in the day.

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter and Technicals

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who want to use the remainder of their 2025 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report research offering), please email: info@sevensreport.com.

 

Updated Market Outlook Post Fed Decision & AI Disappointment (Still Bullish?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook Post Fed Decision & AI Disappointment (Still Bullish?)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Data Stay Goldilocks (And Further Fuel RSP over SPY?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Report Tomorrow is the Key Event

Futures are solidly higher on rising hopes that Kevin Warsh, not Kevin Hassett, would be the next Fed Chair.

President Trump said that Fed Governor Warsh had moved to the top of his Fed Chir list and that’s positive as markets view Warsh as more independent then Hassett.

Economically, Chinese data disappointed as retail sales, industrial production and Fixed Asset Investment missed estimates.

Today focus will be on economic data via the first data point for December, Empire Manufacturing (10.6).  This is a volatile metric but as long as it’s mostly stable (so no big drop) it shouldn’t weigh on markets.

We also get the Housing Market Index (E: 38) and have two Fed speakers: Miran (9:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (10:30 a.m. ET).  Of the two, Williams is the most important and if he’s dovish, it should help support markets.

 

Post Fed Money Flows Highlight 2026 Positioning Risk

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Post Fed Money Flows Highlight 2026 Positioning Risk

Futures are mixed as tech stocks drop on more underwhelming earnings (AVGO) while the rest of the market trades higher.

Broadcom (AVGO) beat on earnings and revenue but concerns about the sustainability of the performance weighed on the stock and it’s down –6% pre-market.

Economic data slightly underwhelmed as UK GDP and Industrial Production both slightly missed estimates.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers: Paulson (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (8:30 a.m. ET and Goolsbee (10:35 a.m. ET).  Of the three, Goolsbee is the most important because he dissented on Wednesday and voted for no rate cut, so hearing his reasoning will be notable for markets (and if he’s more hawkish than expected it could be a mild headwind on stocks).

 

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets (Bullish Short-Term but Not Long Term)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets (Bullish Short-Term but Not Long Term)

Futures are moderately lower as disappointing ORCL earnings reversed Wednesday’s post Fed rally.

ORCL posted underwhelming quarterly results (ORCL down –11% pre-market) and did little to reduce fiscal concerns, further stoking AI skepticism and weighing on tech broadly.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was Italian Unemployment which met expectations (6.1%).

Today focus will be on economic data via Initial Jobless Claims (E: 220k) and an in-line number will be generally positive for markets as it implies solid growth.  Beyond economic data, important earnings loom after the close including, in order of importance:  AVGO ($1.49), LULU ($2.22), COST ($4.26) and RH ($2.13).  Solid AVGO earnings to help offset ORCL disappointment would help the market finish the week strong.

 

Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update
  • October JOLTS Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower while global stocks are mixed after a quiet night of news as today’s Fed decision comes into focus.

Economically, Chinese CPI met estimates of +0.7% Y/Y in November while PPI fell -2.2% vs. (E) -2.0% Y/Y.

Today, there is one economic report: Q3 Employment Cost Index (E: 0.9% m/m, 3.7% y/y) and one Treasury auction for 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET).

However, the main market focus will be the Fed today with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) both scheduled for the mid-afternoon.

Investors will be eyeing the Fed with hopes of a not-too-hawkish-cut, and if delivered, the S&P 500 could make a run at all-time highs while anything that disappoints the doves could weigh heavily on stocks in afternoon trade.

Outside the Fed, earnings season continues with CHWY ($0.12), ORCL ($1.29), ADBE ($4.39), and PL ($-0.07) reporting Q3 results. Investors will be keenly focused on the two big tech names specifically (ORCL and ADBE) for fresh insight on AI-industry guidance, and the stronger the reports the better for equity markets into year-end.

 

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

Equity futures are modestly higher thanks to a steadying bond market and better than feared economic data as trader-focus shifts to the December Fed meeting which begins today (decision/press-conference tomorrow).

Looking ahead to today’s session, there was one economic report early this morning, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which unexpectedly rose from 98.2 to 99.0 vs. (E) 98.0, and that is helping ease lingering worries about the current health of the economy.

Beyond the NFIB, we will receive one more report today: JOLTS (E: 7.2 million) shortly after the open and with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Fed policy, a surprise on the headline or details could move markets ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement.

There are no Fed speakers as the December meeting gets underway today, however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and any reaction in bonds is likely to move equity markets.

Finally, there are a handful of earnings releases today including: AZO ($32.24), CPB ($0.73), ASO ($1.00), and CASY ($4.92) and investors will be looking for continued strength, particularly from any tech-related companies.\

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter and Technicals

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2025 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free), or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report research offering), please email: info@sevensreport.com.

 

An Important Week for Two Pillars of the Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Important Week for Two Pillars of the Rally
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Fed Policy and AI News Fuel Push Markets to New Highs?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Labor Market Updates (Is It Stable?)

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet weekend of news and as investors look forward to important Fed and AI events later this week.

Investor focus, as we start the week, is on Wednesday’s Fed decision, ORCL/AVGO earnings and a Chat GPT update.

Economically, foreign data was better than expected as Chinese exports beat estimates (rising 5.9% vs. (E) 4.0%) as did German Industrial Production (1.8% vs. (E) 0.1%).

This week will be a busy one but today should be relatively quiet in the markets as there are no notable economic reports and just one earnings report after the close, TOL ($4.87).