Why the Strait of Hormuz Problem Likely Isn’t Solved Yet

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Strait of Hormuz Problem Likely Isn’t Solved Yet
  • Jobs Report Preview (Economic Data Is Key for this Market)

Futures are flat as there were no new significant headlines from Iran overnight while tech earnings beat estimates.

Geopolitically, investors are focused on when transit resumes through the Strait of Hormuz and there was no new news overnight.

Broadcom (AVGO) beat earnings and that’s helping to further fuel a tech rebound.

Focus today will remain on geopolitical headlines and any progress towards a cease-fire or increased transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be a positive for stocks.

Away from geopolitics, there are two notable economic reports today, Challenger Layoffs (Last: 108k) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K).  The stronger these numbers, the better, as they reinforce growth is solid (and that’s an important support for this market).

Finally, there is one Fed speaker, Bowman (1:15 p.m. ET) and some notable earnings:  MRVL ($0.62), COST ($4.55), IOT ($-0.01).

 

Defensive Playbook (Three Places to “Hide”)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Defensive Playbook for a Protracted Geopolitical Conflict (and Higher Oil Prices)
  • Is Apple a Potential Hedge for AI-Disruption and Geopolitical Uncertainty?

U.S. futures are enjoying a modest relief rally along with EU stocks while risk-off money flows continued to grip Asian equities overnight after yesterday’s volatile session on Wall Street.

Economically, China’s February Composite PMI came in “hot” with the Services Index jumping to 56.7 vs. (E) 52.3 while the final EU Composite PMI rose to 51.9 vs. (E) 51.8. Additionally, EU Unemployment edged down while headline PPI jumped well above expectations in January which is contributing to today’s rise in global yields.

Today kicks off February “jobs week” with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 43K) due out before the open while one of the more important economic data points of the week, the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.3) will be released shortly after the bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could move short-term interest rates and subsequently impact equity markets in mid-day trade.

Finally, Q4 earnings continue to trickle in with a few noteworthy companies reporting results today: ANF ($3.56), AVGO ($1.67), and OKTA ($0.29). AVGO being a critical AI stock will be the most important release to watch.

 

The Key Geopolitical Variable to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Key Variable to Watch in the U.S.-Iran Conflict
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

S&P 500 futures fell to fresh YTD lows in pre-market trade, oil prices surged, and yields jumped following an Iranian drone attack on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Economically, the EU’s Narrow Core HICP Flash figure for February spiked to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.2% which stoked inflation fears and introduced market risks of potential ECB rate hikes in 2026.

Today, there is one second-tiered economic report to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.3 million) and the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could impact Treasury yields and carryover to equity market money flows.

Additionally, there are three Fed speakers today with Williams (9:55 a.m. ET), Schmid (10:10 a.m. ET), and Kashkari (11:55 a.m. ET) all due to deliver comments.

Finally, there are a handful of noteworthy earnings releases to watch today: TGT ($2.17), BBY ($2.48), CRWD ($0.20), however the corporate results are likely to take a backseat to geopolitics until tensions between the U.S. and Iran begin to subside.

 

What the U.S./Iran Conflict Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the U.S./Iran Conflict Means for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Conflict Stay Contained?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: An Important Week for Growth (Jobs Report on Friday)

Futures are moderately lower on geopolitical concerns following the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend.

Oil (up 7%) and gold (up 3%) are sharply higher and global stocks are lower as markets price in greater geopolitical risk.  But, the moves are in line with expectations (so no worse than feared).

Economically, the UK Manufacturing PMI slightly missed estimates (51.7 vs. 52.0) while the EU reading met forecasts (52.0) but neither number is moving markets.

Today focus will be on geopolitics and specifically whether the U.S./Iran conflict widens.  If the conflict does start to widen (and bring in other countries and expand the number of combatants on both sides) that will be an incremental market negative.

Away from geopolitics, this is an important week for economic data and the first key report comes today via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.8).  Simply put, the stronger this number, the better as markets need solid growth more right now than they need a sooner than expected rate cut.

 

What is the “Smart Market” Telling Investors Right Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is the “Smart Market” Telling Investors Right Now?

Futures are modestly weaker on mixed tech earnings.

There were beats (DELL, ADSK) but also plenty of misses (CRWV, INTU) and the net result of the earnings is that they did not reduce AI disruption fears.

Economic data was mixed as Japanese Retail Sales beat estimates while Industrial Production missed.  In Germany, both the Unemployment Rate and CPI met expectations.

Today focus will be on inflation via the delayed January PPI report and expectations are as follows: 0.3% m/m, 2.8% y/y.  A better than expected number will help push back against sticky inflation fears and help support markets.

Other events today include two more economic reports, Chicago PMI (E: 52.5) and Construction Spending (E: 0.3%) and some earnings, UUUU ($-0.07), GSAT ($0.01), SQM ($0.75), but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Monitoring Private Credit Risk Through Credit Spreads

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monitoring Private Credit Risk Through Credit Spreads

Futures are little changed following mixed tech earnings overnight.

Nvidia (NVDA up 0.9% pre-open) posted strong earnings but only met market expectations while Salesforce (CRM down 3% pre-open) beat earnings but guidance was light.

Economically, Euro Zone Economic Sentiment slightly missed estimates (99.6 vs. (E) 98.3).

Today there is one economic report, Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and one Fed speaker, Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET) but market focus will be on software stocks and the U.S./Iran talks.

Investors will want to see software (so IGV) “hold up” despite soft CRM guidance and if it can, that could spur another rally.  If it can’t, and IGV rolls over it could be another ugly day.  Geo-politically, the U.S. and Iran host another round of talks today and any hints of de-escalation will be a positive for markets.

Finally, important tech earnings continue today with CRWV ($-0.61), DELL ($3.32) and INTU ($2.23).

 

Understanding AI Anxiety: Two Key Sources

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding the Two Sources of AI Anxiety – And How to Protect Against It
  • Chart: HALO Sectors (Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence) Are Handily Outperforming YTD

Futures are tracking global stocks higher after Trump’s SOTU address did not present markets with any material surprises while trader focus shifts ahead to the critical Q4’25 earnings release from NVDA after the close today.

Economically, Eurozone Narrow Core HICP (Core CPI equivalent) cooled to 2.2% from 2.3% in January, meeting expectations and offering fresh evidence that global disinflation trends remain intact in 2026.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there is one government-shutdown-delayed economic report due to be released: New Home Sales (E: 680K), and a handful of Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (9:35 a.m. ET), Schmid (11:00 a.m. ET), and Musalem (1:20 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 5-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. If demand is overly strong, or weak, for either, we could see a reaction in bonds that reverberates into equity markets (the stronger/more-dovish, the better).

Finally, there are a slew of important earnings reports today including multiple AI-sensitive/semiconductor names: TJX ($1.38), LOW ($1.95), NVDA ($1.45), CRM ($2.14), SNOW ($-0.65), and IONQ ($-0.48).

 

Re-Examining the Four Pillars of the Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Bad Sign from the Most Important ETF in the Market
  • Re-Examining the Current Market Setup – 4 Pillars of the Rally

Futures are mildly higher as traders digest yesterday’s “AI-disruption” selloff ahead of Trump’s State of the Union address this evening.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight.

Today, trader focus will be on economic data early with the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.3%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 88.0) reports all due to be released. As has been the case lately, the market will want to see “Goldilocks” data signaling resilient growth trends and cooling inflation pressures in order to mount a meaningful relief rally.

Additionally, there is a slew of Fed speak today as Goolsbee (8:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (9:00 a.m. ET), Collins (9:00 a.m. ET), Waller (9:15 a.m. ET), Cook (9:30 a.m. ET), and Barkin (3:00 p.m. ET) are all on the calendar scheduled to deliver comments.

Finally, there are a handful of noteworthy Q4 earnings due out today, including HD ($2.52), NRG ($1.17), MELI ($11.77), AXON ($-0.18), HPQ ($0.77), and GDDY ($1.58). In addition to solid economic data and less-hawkish Fed speak, strong earnings would offer another tailwind for markets in the wake of yesterday’s latest wave of selling pressure.

 

Is the Tariff Decision a Bullish Catalyst?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Tariff Decision a Bullish Catalyst?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About AI (Key AI Earnings This Week)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Inflation and Labor Market Insights

Futures are slightly lower are markets digest the SCOTUS tariff decision and despite reports of some de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran.

Fears of an imminent U.S. strike on Iran eased this weekend as the U.S. and Iran announced they will hold more negotiations this Thursday.

Economically, German Ifo Business Conditions slightly missed estimates (89.6 vs. (E) 90.5).

This week is a potentially important one with a lot of critical tech earnings reports, but it starts slowly as there is just one economic report today, Chicago Fed (E: -0.04) and one Fed speaker, Waller (8:00 a.m.) and neither are likely to move markets.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are little changed despite solid economic data and some hopes any Iran strikes by the U.S. could be limited.

Economic data overnight was good as the EU flash composite PMI (51,9 vs. (E) 51.4) and the UK flash composite PMI (53.9 vs. (E) 52.2) both beat estimates.

Geopolitically, reports overnight stated a U.S. strike on Iran could be limited and aimed and furthering negotiations.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics (and reduced chances of a strike on Iran will be positive for markets) and economic data, as there are several economic reports today.  They are, in order of importance:  Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.9), Core PCE Price Inde (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and Advanced Q4 GDP (E: 2.8%).  As has been the case, solid data that’s a bit better than expectations remains the best-case scenario for stocks as it reinforces solid growth.

Finally, on the Fed front, there are two speakers today, Bostic (9:45 a.m. ET) and Musalem (3:30 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.