What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy (And What Does It Mean for Markets?)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy and What Does It Mean for Markets?
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways

Futures are sharply higher amid positive geopolitical news and more strong mega-cap tech earnings overnight with AMD reporting blowout Q1 results (shares up ~25%).

Oil futures are down 10%+ and bond yields are off 8+ bp after Axios reported a U.S.-Iran peace deal that would result in the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will primarily be on the positive geopolitical developments but “jobs week” kicks off this morning with the release of the ADP Employment Report (E: 85K) pre-market.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (9:30 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, earnings season continues with DIS ($1.49), NVO ($0.87), UBER ($0.71), IONQ ($-0.55) and APP ($3.40) all scheduled to release quarterly results today.

 

Why the Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines Didn’t Hit Markets More on Monday

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines Didn’t Hit Markets More on Monday
  • How Is the Consumer So Resilient (Low Unemployment)

Futures are solidly higher this morning and oil prices are down 2%+ as there were no further geopolitical escalations following Iran’s missile strikes on the UAE yesterday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates 25 bp to 4.35% but signaled policy rates are likely to remain “on hold” at current levels, limiting the hawkish impact on global bond markets.

Today, there are several noteworthy economic reports to watch including International Trade in Goods (E: $-60.4B), New Home Sales (E: 668K), ISM Services Index (E: 53.9), JOLTS (E: 6.8 million). Investors will want to see more signs of solid growth/employment and limited inflation pressures (specifically in the ISM release).

Additionally, there are two Fed officials speaking: Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barr (12:30 p.m. ET) and a handful of noteworthy earnings releases with investors still primarily focused on the tech names. Earnings today include: SHOP ($0.22), PYPL ($1.27), ET ($0.38), AMD ($1.06), SMCI ($0.55), and AMC ($-0.32).

 

The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Resilient Economic Data Keep Supporting Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Week (Jobs Report on Friday)

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest the latest U.S./Iran headlines, including the implication of “Operation Freedom” and a report a U.S. Naval vessel was attacked.

On Sunday, President Trump announced “Operation Freedom,” an operation whereby the U.S. military will help escort trapped tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s reaction to this is unclear, but there are unconfirmed reports a U.S. naval vessel was hit by Iranian missiles and oil is rallying in response (and futures are slipping).

Today headlines from the Gulf will dominate markets and if there’s a resumption of attacks between the U.S. and Iran, expect oil to spike and stocks to drop.  Outside of geopolitics, New York Fed President Williams speaks (12:50 p.m. ET) and for markets, the more dovish he is, the better.

 

How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

Futures are flat as markets digest Thursday’s big rally following generally “fine” earnings overnight and no changes to the U.S./Iran situation.

Apple (AAPL) posted solid results and the stock is up 3% pre-market, capping an overall strong Q1 reporting season.

Geopolitically, there was no new news on U.S. and Iran and markets still believe a ceasefire agreement is forthcoming.

Today focus will remain, as it has been, on geopolitics and economic data. On U.S./Iran, put simply, any ceasefire agreement will be a market positive (and help reinforce current gains) while any resumption of attacks would be a substantial negative (expect oil to spike 10% or more).

Economically, the key report today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.0) and markets will want to see Goldilocks data of solid headline activity and only modest price increases.  If we get a spike in the price index, it could offset any strong headline number.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but some important report to watch today include: CVX ($0.92), XOM ($1.07), CL ($0.95), MRNA ($-3.02).

 

What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

Futures are slightly higher despite mixed mega-cap tech earnings and negative headlines on Iran.

Mega-cap tech earnings aren’t moving markets as they were mixed and largely offset one another.

On Iran, reports continue to surface about an extended blockade of the Strait and that is boosting oil prices.

Today will be another busy day of economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) and given growing concerns about higher rates, this number needs to meet expectations.   Important growth metrics today include Advanced Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%) and Jobless Claims (E: 212K).

On earnings, it’s another important day and four reports we’re especially watching are: AAPL ($1.92), SNDK ($13.66), CAT ($4.55) and MA ($4.40) as they will give us insight into the state of AI and consumer/business spending.  As has been the case, the stronger the results, the better.

 

Sevens Report Alpha: How to Find Value When the Market Looks Fully Priced

In our latest Sevens Report Alpha issue, released Tuesday, we tackled a challenge many advisors face right now: helping clients see opportunity when major indexes are sitting at all-time highs. The report offers a framework for doing exactly that, including several underappreciated areas of the market we believe deserve a closer look.

This is not about chasing what has already worked. It is about identifying areas that may still offer attractive risk/reward and using that as a practical way to discuss opportunity with clients even in a market that feels expensive on the surface.

Learn more and start a risk-free Alpha trial: Sevens Report Alpha 

 

Understanding Why OpenAI Concerns Hit the Market

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why OpenAI Concerns Hit the Market
  • More Non-Confirmation from Treasuries and Oil

Stock futures are little changed ahead of today’s Fed decision and multiple widely anticipated Mag-7 earnings releases.

There were no market moving economic reports overnight and the U.S.-Iran ceasefires talks remains deadlocked.

Today, there are several important economic reports to watch including Durable Goods (E: 0.4%), Housing Starts (1.40M), and International Trade in Goods (E: $-87.8B).

From there, markets are likely to be quiet leading into the conclusion of the April Fed meeting with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) being the primary focus of today’s session.

After the market close, some of the most important earnings of the season will be released and the results could meaningfully move markets in after-hours trade. Those reporting today include: MSFT ($4.07), AMZN ($1.60), META ($6.71), GOOGL ($2.64), HUM ($9.97), ABBV ($2.62), ADP ($3.28), SOFI ($0.12), QCOM ($1.90).

 

FOMC Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

Futures are in the red with tech leading the way lower after a WSJ article revealed OpenAI missed both revenue and user targets overnight which is dragging the broader market lower.

Meanwhile bond yields are rising globally on the combination of higher oil prices amid no progress towards a U.S.-Iran peace deal and hawkish central bank policy headlines (including a split BOJ decision).

Looking into today’s U.S. session there are a handful of noteworthy economic reports due to be released including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 89.4).

The April FOMC Meeting begins today which should begin to limit intraday volatility as a sense of “Fed Paralysis” starts to grip the market.

However, earnings season remains in full swing with SPOT ($3.72), UPS ($1.06), KO ($0.81), BP ($0.91), GM ($2.61), HOOD ($0.40), BE ($-0.02), V ($3.09), and BKNG ($1.10) all due to report quarterly results today.

 

Could Earnings Be More Important than War This Week?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Could Earnings Be More Important than War This Week?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Will Earnings Be Strong Enough to Offset any Geopolitical Disappointment?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed Decision on Wednesday (Will They Still Point to Rate Cuts?)

Futures are little changed despite no ceasefire meeting between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.

There were no additional ceasefire talks over the weekend but markets still view the ceasefire process as ongoing, so the “no meeting news” isn’t hitting stocks.

Economically, the only notable report was German Gfk Consumer Climate and it missed estimates (-33 vs. (E) -30).

This week could be very important for the rally as we have critical earnings, a Fed decision on Wednesday and potential progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz all looming. But, the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today, so any U.S./Iran ceasefire deal headlines should continue to drive markets.

On earnings, this is the most important week of the reporting season (especially Thursday) and some results we’re watching today include: VZ ($1.22), DPZ ($4.29), CLS ($1.98), NUE ($2.79) and UHS ($5.29).

 

Technical Take: Important Levels to Watch

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Take: Important Levels to Watch

Futures are mixed despite strong tech earnings and a three-week extension of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire.

Intel (INTC) surged 26% pre-market on blow out earnings and guidance and that’s helping to support futures.

Geopolitically, Israel and Lebanon extended the ceasefire but there was no more information on when the next U.S./Iran face to face talks will occur.

Today there is one economic report, Consumer Sentiment (E: 48.0) and some notable earnings, PG ($1.56), CHTR ($9.97), NSC ($2.51), HCA ($7.19), but geopolitics will remain the primary driver of markets.

To that point, while the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire is a positive, the market still only cares about the Strait of Hormuz reopening and because of that, when the next U.S./Iran talks occur will be the biggest potential catalyst today and the sooner, the better for markets.

 

A Tale of Three Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets await the next steps in the U.S./Iran ceasefire process while tech earnings underwhelmed overnight.

There was no new U.S./Iran news overnight as markets await the details of the next in-face U.S./Iran talks.

On earnings, IBM (down 7%) and TSLA (down 3%) underwhelmed on earnings and that’s weighing on futures.

Today focus will stay on U.S./Iran and key events now are 1) When the next face to face meeting happens (chatter implies this weekend) and 2) The dual naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz (any hint they could end would be positive).

Away from the Strait of Hormuz, there are important economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 210K), the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.5) and the Flash Services PMI (E: 50.0) and the stronger the data, the better as it’ll push back on stagflation concerns.

Finally, earnings season continues to heat up and two important reports today are AXP ($4.03) and INTC ($-0.11).