FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower this morning as oil rises near $100/bbl after attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure while investors await the start of the Fed meeting.

Oil is rising after strikes on energy facilities overnight in Iraq and the UAE while uncertainty remains around a U.S.-led effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Eurozone ZEW both missed estimates, but that’s not moving markets.

The Treasury will hold a 6-Week & 52-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. however, they won’t likely move markets meaningfully.

Finally, earnings season continues with quarterly reports due from ASO ($1.99), TME ($0.21), and LULU ($4.77) today.

 

3 Market Headwinds, 3 Indicators to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Market Problems, Three Indicators to Watch
  • Weekly Market Preview: De-escalation or Not?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Decision the Key Event

Futures are modestly higher after several tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, raising hopes the key oil route could reopen.

Rhetoric from both sides continues to downplay the chances of near-term negotiations while reports say the U.S. may form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), and the NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 37). Markets will want to see stable growth data as investors monitor oil prices.

Beyond the data, the Treasury will auction 3 & 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET while earnings today include DLTR ($2.53) and BEKE ($0.07).

 

Market Multiple Table Chart: Similarities to March 2025

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart: Similarities to March 2025

Futures are little changed as markets digest the rise in oil and as there were no material new attacks on oil infrastructure overnight.

Rhetoric from both sides (U.S. and Iran) continue to downplay the chances for a cease-fire in the near term.

Economically, EU Industrial Production missed estimates (-1.5% vs. (E) 0.5%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will remain first and foremost on geo-political headlines and we can expect stocks to continue to trade inversely to the price of oil.

Beyond geopolitics, there are several notable economic reports today including, in order of importance, Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 3.0% y/y), JOLTS (E: 6.75 million), Durable Goods (E: 0.5%), Final Q4 GDP (E: 1.4%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 56.2).  If Core PCE and the growth data are better than expectations, that will help support this market.

 

March Market Multiple Table: Two New Risks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • March Market Multiple Table: Two New Risks

Futures are moderately lower on higher oil prices as Iran continued attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Iran attacked additional oil tankers overnight, setting at least two tankers ablaze off Iraq and that pushed oil back above $90/bbl, which weighed on futures.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will stay on the war and put simply, the sooner hostilities abate and ships move through the Strait of Hormuz again, the better for markets.  Any progress towards that will pressure oil and boost stocks and any increased attacks on tankers will boost oil and pressure stocks.

Outside of the conflict, there are two notable economic reports today, Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and Housing Starts (E: 1.34M) and the stronger the numbers, the better as the last thing this market needs is a sudden growth scare.

Finally, earnings continue today and some important reports include: ADBE ($4.85), ULTA ($7.99), DG ($1.61) and DKS ($3.36).

 

Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Stagflation Risks Rising

Futures are slightly higher as investors weigh the prospects of an emergency oil reserve release by G7 members against news that Iran attacked multiple oil tankers overnight ahead of key U.S. inflation data.

Economically, German CPI held steady at 2.0% vs. (E) 2.0% in February which is serving to ease global inflation worries.

Looking into today’s session, domestic inflation data will be in focus early with CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y) due to be released ahead of the bell. Additionally fresh insight regarding the state of the U.S. fiscal situation will be delivered in the afternoon with the release of the Treasury Statement (E: $-308.0B).

There is one Fed speaker scheduled to speak today: Bowman (8:30 a.m. ET) and investors will be looking for any signs of caution regarding rate cuts due to the still tense geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East and the subsequent impact on oil prices/inflation.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be closely watched as a proxy for any shift in the growth/inflation outlook by bond investors in recent weeks.

Finally, there are a few earnings releases to watch today including CPB ($0.57), PATH ($0.12), and WOOF ($-0.02), however, the market’s primary focus will remain geopolitical headlines which have proven to be meaningful intraday catalysts this week. Any signs of a sooner-than-later end to the U.S.-Iran military conflict will be well received and support a further relief rally in risk assets.

 

Will “TACO” Work This Time?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Will “TACO” Work This Time?

Futures are tracking global equities higher this morning amid optimism surrounding a sooner-than-later ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran war after President Trump hinted the conflict could end “very soon” late yesterday afternoon.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down -0.5 points to 98.8 vs. (E) 99.7 in February.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 3.88 million) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

The Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be closely watched as a gauge for the market’s outlook on inflation risks and future Fed policy expectations.

Finally, some late season earnings continue to trickle in with ORCL ($1.34), FNV ($1.68) and KSS ($0.85) due to report quarterly results today. ORCL, being the legacy tech behemoth that it is, will be the key report to watch as its results could either bolster, or pour cold water on, the still fragile AI-narrative this week.

The Two Specific Reasons Stocks Dropped Last Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Two Specific Reasons Stocks Dropped Last Week
  • Weekly Market Preview: Will Oil Keep Rising? (The Sooner the Strait of Hormuz Reopens, the Better)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: CPI in Focus on Wednesday (Markets Need a Tame Number)

Futures are sharply lower on surging oil prices (oil is above $100/bbl) as there was no progress on a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran selected the Ayatollah’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as supreme leader, confirming that headliners are still in charge and reducing hopes of a near term ceasefire.

Iran damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain, continuing attacks on neighbor’s energy and general infrastructure (this is contributing to the rise in oil).

Today there are no economic reports so focus will remain squarely on Iran.  Any headlines that imply de-escalation should trigger a solid rebound from the early lows while any new attacks on energy infrastructure will boost oil prices and weigh on stocks.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day

Futures are moderately lower on more warnings about potentially extended disruption in Gulf oil production.

Qatar’s energy minister warned that Gulf states could be forced to fully halt oil production within weeks, a move that could send oil to $150/bbl.

Economically, the only notable report was Euro Zone GDP which sightly underwhelmed (0.2% vs. (E) 0.3%).

Today focus will stay on geopolitics but there’s also an important economic report via the February jobs report. Expectations are as follows:  60K Job-Adds, 4.4% UE Rate, 3.7% Wage Growth.  A “Goldilocks” jobs report will help support markets despite negative geopolitical headlines while a “Too Hot” or “Too Cold” report will add to downward pressure.

Away from the jobs report, we also get Retail Sales (E: -0.4%) and one Fed speaker, Hammack (1:30 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Why the Strait of Hormuz Problem Likely Isn’t Solved Yet

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Strait of Hormuz Problem Likely Isn’t Solved Yet
  • Jobs Report Preview (Economic Data Is Key for this Market)

Futures are flat as there were no new significant headlines from Iran overnight while tech earnings beat estimates.

Geopolitically, investors are focused on when transit resumes through the Strait of Hormuz and there was no new news overnight.

Broadcom (AVGO) beat earnings and that’s helping to further fuel a tech rebound.

Focus today will remain on geopolitical headlines and any progress towards a cease-fire or increased transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be a positive for stocks.

Away from geopolitics, there are two notable economic reports today, Challenger Layoffs (Last: 108k) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K).  The stronger these numbers, the better, as they reinforce growth is solid (and that’s an important support for this market).

Finally, there is one Fed speaker, Bowman (1:15 p.m. ET) and some notable earnings:  MRVL ($0.62), COST ($4.55), IOT ($-0.01).

 

Defensive Playbook (Three Places to “Hide”)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Defensive Playbook for a Protracted Geopolitical Conflict (and Higher Oil Prices)
  • Is Apple a Potential Hedge for AI-Disruption and Geopolitical Uncertainty?

U.S. futures are enjoying a modest relief rally along with EU stocks while risk-off money flows continued to grip Asian equities overnight after yesterday’s volatile session on Wall Street.

Economically, China’s February Composite PMI came in “hot” with the Services Index jumping to 56.7 vs. (E) 52.3 while the final EU Composite PMI rose to 51.9 vs. (E) 51.8. Additionally, EU Unemployment edged down while headline PPI jumped well above expectations in January which is contributing to today’s rise in global yields.

Today kicks off February “jobs week” with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 43K) due out before the open while one of the more important economic data points of the week, the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.3) will be released shortly after the bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could move short-term interest rates and subsequently impact equity markets in mid-day trade.

Finally, Q4 earnings continue to trickle in with a few noteworthy companies reporting results today: ANF ($3.56), AVGO ($1.67), and OKTA ($0.29). AVGO being a critical AI stock will be the most important release to watch.