What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways
  • Chart: Copper Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as the two-day gain to start 2026 is digested ahead of more U.S. economic and the all-important Consumer Electronics Show where NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang will speak at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Economically, the Final Eurozone Composite PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.5 vs. (E) 51.9 in December which mildly dented global soft landing optimism overnight.

Looking into the U.S. session, the Final U.S. Composite PMI (E: 53.0) and data on Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.7 million) are due to be released today while there is one Fed official speaking ahead of the bell: Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy expectations, however it will be most important to see a Goldilocks PMI print ahead of the most widely anticipated event of the day, the Consumer Electronics Show, where NVDA’s CEO is the keynote speaker scheduled to deliver remarks just as markets close (but futures will continue to trade as he speaks).

 

How Venezuela Could Impact Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Venezuela Could Impact Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Economic Data Start 2026 Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The Big-Three Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are modestly higher despite more geopolitical volatility as the U.S. shocked the world and infiltrated Venezuela and arrested President Maduro.

Market reaction to Maduro’s arrest has been generally muted, however, including in the oil markets where oil is only slightly higher, as political change in Venezuela likely will mean more oil production, not less.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on geo-politics (any continued fallout from the Maduro arrest) and economic data, as we get our first important economic report of 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.4).  Stability remains the key for economic data as we start the new year, so an in-line or slightly better number will be welcomed by markets.

 

Putting the S&P 500’s Strong Three-Year Run in Context

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting the S&P 500’s Strong Three-Year Run in Context
  • The Q4 2025 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Will Be Delivered Today to Subscribers

Futures are starting the new year with moderate gains following more tariff reductions.

The Trump administration reduced tariffs on several import categories including pasta and furniture as the aggregate tariff burden on the economy declined further.

Economically, EU and UK Flash manufacturing PMIs both missed expectations, falling to 48.8 vs. (E) 49.2 in the EU and 50.6 vs. (E) 51.2 in the UK.

Today focus will be on economic data via the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.8) and markets will want to see a Goldilocks reading near expectations to start off the new year.  A very weak reading (close to 50) or a very strong number (above 53) would either 1) Slightly increase slowdown worries or 2) Reduce rate cut expectations, both negatives for the markets.

 

Investor Sentiment Update (Not as Bullish as One Would Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: Not Nearly as Bullish as One Would Think
  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index – An Upside Surprise
  • December FOMC Meeting Takeaways

U.S. futures are lower along with global markets after a mostly quiet night of news as the solid 2025 stock market advance continues to be digested into year-end.

Economically, China’s CFLP Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in December from 49.5 in November vs. (E) 49.7 but the strong data print failed to generate any market enthusiasm overnight.

Today, there is one final noteworthy economic report before the end of the year: Jobless Claims (E: 218K) and investors will be looking for a Goldilocks print to shore up soft-landing expectations.

Additionally, the Treasury will hold auctions for 4-Week, 8-Week and 4-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and markets will want to see healthy demand to support dovish Fed policy expectations for 2026.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today and the bond market will close early (2:00 p.m. ET) ahead of the New Years Holiday as markets cap off another solid year of stock market returns.

 

The Value of International Investing Revisited

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Interesting Table to Show Clients: The Value of International Diversification
  • Don’t Dismiss Tax-Loss Harvesting This Year

Stock futures are mildly lower as year-end profit taking continues while global equity markets were little changed overnight amid mostly quiet financial market news wires.

Economically, South Korean data was positive as Industrial Production steadied and Retail Sales beat estimates.

Looking into today’s session there are a handful of “second-tiered” economic reports including the Chicago PMI (E: 39.5), the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), and the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%) but none are likely to materially move markets.

There is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Yesterday’s short-duration Treasury auctions saw yields come off their intraday lows which appeared to weigh on stocks modestly, a dynamic that could repeat itself today.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today, however, the December FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which will likely be the most widely-followed catalyst of the day as traders assess still uncertain Fed policy rate expectations for 2026.

 

Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Year-End Window Dressing Push Stocks Higher?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Another Quiet Week, But The Labor Market Will Stay in Focus

Futures are modestly lower following a mostly quiet weekend of news and as the Trump/Zelensky meeting failed to produce material progress on peace in Ukraine.

Geopolitically, markets were hopeful that the Trump/Zelensky meeting over the weekend would yield a formal agreement, but it did not (just more “progress”) and oil prices are rising moderately (2%) in response.

Notably, gold, silver and copper are all down 2% – 4% pre-market but that’s likely due to year-end positioning.

Today the calendar is generally quiet so focus will be on any signs of geopolitical progress (Russia/Ukraine). Oil remains the best barometer for geo-political concerns and despite the bounce in oil this morning, geo-political concerns from the market remain low (despite numerous unsettled situations including Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan and, now, Venezuela).  There is also one economic report today, Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

Futures are little changed in quiet trading following the Christmas holiday, as most European markets are closed for St. Steven’s Day.

There was no notable foreign economic out overnight.

On AI, Nvidia announced a partnership with AI Groq that is being positive received by markets (and boosting AI Enthusiasm).

Today should be a quiet trading day barring any geopolitical surprises as there are no economic reports, no meaningful earnings nor any Fed speak.

Hard vs. Soft Data: A Growing Economic Disconnect

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard vs. Soft Data: A Growing Economic Disconnect
  • Durable Goods and GDP Data Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are modestly lower in thin holiday trade as this week’s market advance to fresh all time highs is digested amid mostly quiet newswires.

Economically, Taiwan Industrial Production rose 16.42% in November, up from 14.5% in October but the data is having a limited impact on markets this morning.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic release ahead of the bell: Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and markets will be looking for ongoing resilience in the labor market via a steady to lower than expected headline print to help shore up soft landing hopes.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Week and 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and as has been the case recently, the stronger the demand the better.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and no noteworthy earnings releases which will result in a likely quiet holiday trading session with the NYSE closing early at 1:00 p.m. ET.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (November Launches)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (November Launches)

U.S. futures are flat while overseas equity markets were little changed overnight amid mostly quiet newswires and thinning attendance ahead of the Christmas holiday with focus on the slew of U.S. economic data due out today.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight and limited market moving headlines.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will be on the long list of economic reports due to be released in the U.S., including Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.5%), Q3 GDP (E: 3.2%), Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 91.9), and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -7.0).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on investors’ outlook for Fed policy (the stronger the demand, the better).

Bottom line, with thinning attendance and light volumes given the holiday trading week, markets are likely to remain quiet today, however, if economic data meaningfully misses expectations and weighs on growth expectations, a decent pullback could easily occur.

 

Sevens Report Q4 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming Next Friday  

It was another strong year for stocks, but it will be a different environment as we start 2026 with 1) Concerns about an AI bubble rising, 2) The Fed rate-cutting cycle potentially ending and 3) The unemployment rate hitting a multi-year high.

Those are factors that could make 2026 more volatile than expected and we will address those risks (and celebrate 2025’s strong performance) in the upcoming Q4 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter).

The letter will be delivered to subscribers next Friday, January 2nd. 

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is a turnkey client communications solution. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis and
  • Strengthen client relationships with little-to-no work from you!

You can view our Q3 ’25 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price), please click this link and if you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

 

Can the Market Rally Without AI and a Dovish Fed?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Market Rally Without AI and a Dovish Fed?
  • Weekly  Market Preview: Santa Rally On?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Insight on Growth

Futures are marginally higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a quiet weekend of news, as AI linked tech stocks continued to rebound.

Both gold and silver hit new all-time highs on rising geopolitical tensions as U.S. forces boarded another oil tanker bound for Venezuela, further increasing tensions.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was United Kingdom Q3 GDP, which met expectations rising 0.1% q/q and 1.3% y/y.

Market and economic calendars are mostly quiet this week and that includes today as there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers.  That said, geo-politics remains a potential market mover this week, if we see a further increase in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.