Jobs Day (and Potential Tariff Decision)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day (and Potential Tariff Decision)

Futures are little changed ahead of today’s jobs report and the potential announcement of the Supreme Court’s IEEPA tariff decision.

Economic data was better than expected overnight as German Industrial Production and EU Retail Sales both beat expectations.

Today focus will first be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  E: 55K Job-Adds, 4.6% Unemployment Rate, 3.6% Wage Growth.  A Goldilocks number that shows job adds in line and no increase in unemployment will be the best case for stocks.

In addition to the jobs report, we could get the SCOTUS IEEPA tariff ruling today and if so, the key will be the 10-year Treasury yield.  If the yield jumps on the decision, that will be a new headwind on stocks.  Finally, there are two Fed speakers today, Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barkin (1:35 p.m. ET) and the more dovish they are, the better for markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

Futures are modestly lower on further digestion of the administration’s potential interference in industries.

The administrations’ proclamations on housing and defense company dividends/buybacks are weighing on markets as investors will only welcome so much government interference in business.

Economic data overnight was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders and EU Unemployment both beat estimates.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and given labor market anxiety, the stronger the claims number, the better.  There are two other economic reports today, Q3 Productivity & Costs (E: 3.6%, 0.8%), Consumer Credit (E: $9.7B), but they are unlikely to move markets especially given tomorrow’s jobs report looms just over 24 hours away.

 

What Could Make Markets Decline in 2026? (Three Events)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Make Markets Decline in 2026? (Three Events)
  • U.S. Composite PMI Commentary Notes “Cracks in the Economy”

U.S. futures and global markets are lower as traders digest the latest rally to all-time highs, weighing an uptick in geopolitical tensions in Asia against Goldilocks economic data out of the EU overnight.

Economically, the German Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 6.3% in November, as expected, while the Eurozone Core HICP (CPI equivalent) favorably fell to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% which has invited a bid into global bond markets.

Looking into today’s session, we will get the first look at important December labor market data in the U.S. via the ADP Employment Report (E: 47K) ahead of the bell and JOLTS (E: 7.65MM) shortly after the open.

Additionally, the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.2) will be an important release to watch after the open, along with Factory Orders data (E: -1.2%) while there is one Fed official scheduled to speak mid-day: Bowman (11:30 a.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that will offer a fresh look at bond traders’ assessment of the morning’s flurry of U.S. economic data and subsequent impact on Fed policy expectations (the stronger the demand the better).

 

What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways
  • Chart: Copper Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as the two-day gain to start 2026 is digested ahead of more U.S. economic and the all-important Consumer Electronics Show where NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang will speak at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Economically, the Final Eurozone Composite PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.5 vs. (E) 51.9 in December which mildly dented global soft landing optimism overnight.

Looking into the U.S. session, the Final U.S. Composite PMI (E: 53.0) and data on Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.7 million) are due to be released today while there is one Fed official speaking ahead of the bell: Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy expectations, however it will be most important to see a Goldilocks PMI print ahead of the most widely anticipated event of the day, the Consumer Electronics Show, where NVDA’s CEO is the keynote speaker scheduled to deliver remarks just as markets close (but futures will continue to trade as he speaks).

 

How Venezuela Could Impact Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Venezuela Could Impact Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Economic Data Start 2026 Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The Big-Three Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are modestly higher despite more geopolitical volatility as the U.S. shocked the world and infiltrated Venezuela and arrested President Maduro.

Market reaction to Maduro’s arrest has been generally muted, however, including in the oil markets where oil is only slightly higher, as political change in Venezuela likely will mean more oil production, not less.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on geo-politics (any continued fallout from the Maduro arrest) and economic data, as we get our first important economic report of 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.4).  Stability remains the key for economic data as we start the new year, so an in-line or slightly better number will be welcomed by markets.

 

Putting the S&P 500’s Strong Three-Year Run in Context

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting the S&P 500’s Strong Three-Year Run in Context
  • The Q4 2025 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Will Be Delivered Today to Subscribers

Futures are starting the new year with moderate gains following more tariff reductions.

The Trump administration reduced tariffs on several import categories including pasta and furniture as the aggregate tariff burden on the economy declined further.

Economically, EU and UK Flash manufacturing PMIs both missed expectations, falling to 48.8 vs. (E) 49.2 in the EU and 50.6 vs. (E) 51.2 in the UK.

Today focus will be on economic data via the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.8) and markets will want to see a Goldilocks reading near expectations to start off the new year.  A very weak reading (close to 50) or a very strong number (above 53) would either 1) Slightly increase slowdown worries or 2) Reduce rate cut expectations, both negatives for the markets.

 

Investor Sentiment Update (Not as Bullish as One Would Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: Not Nearly as Bullish as One Would Think
  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index – An Upside Surprise
  • December FOMC Meeting Takeaways

U.S. futures are lower along with global markets after a mostly quiet night of news as the solid 2025 stock market advance continues to be digested into year-end.

Economically, China’s CFLP Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in December from 49.5 in November vs. (E) 49.7 but the strong data print failed to generate any market enthusiasm overnight.

Today, there is one final noteworthy economic report before the end of the year: Jobless Claims (E: 218K) and investors will be looking for a Goldilocks print to shore up soft-landing expectations.

Additionally, the Treasury will hold auctions for 4-Week, 8-Week and 4-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and markets will want to see healthy demand to support dovish Fed policy expectations for 2026.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today and the bond market will close early (2:00 p.m. ET) ahead of the New Years Holiday as markets cap off another solid year of stock market returns.

 

The Value of International Investing Revisited

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Interesting Table to Show Clients: The Value of International Diversification
  • Don’t Dismiss Tax-Loss Harvesting This Year

Stock futures are mildly lower as year-end profit taking continues while global equity markets were little changed overnight amid mostly quiet financial market news wires.

Economically, South Korean data was positive as Industrial Production steadied and Retail Sales beat estimates.

Looking into today’s session there are a handful of “second-tiered” economic reports including the Chicago PMI (E: 39.5), the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), and the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%) but none are likely to materially move markets.

There is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Yesterday’s short-duration Treasury auctions saw yields come off their intraday lows which appeared to weigh on stocks modestly, a dynamic that could repeat itself today.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today, however, the December FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which will likely be the most widely-followed catalyst of the day as traders assess still uncertain Fed policy rate expectations for 2026.

 

Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Year-End Window Dressing Push Stocks Higher?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Another Quiet Week, But The Labor Market Will Stay in Focus

Futures are modestly lower following a mostly quiet weekend of news and as the Trump/Zelensky meeting failed to produce material progress on peace in Ukraine.

Geopolitically, markets were hopeful that the Trump/Zelensky meeting over the weekend would yield a formal agreement, but it did not (just more “progress”) and oil prices are rising moderately (2%) in response.

Notably, gold, silver and copper are all down 2% – 4% pre-market but that’s likely due to year-end positioning.

Today the calendar is generally quiet so focus will be on any signs of geopolitical progress (Russia/Ukraine). Oil remains the best barometer for geo-political concerns and despite the bounce in oil this morning, geo-political concerns from the market remain low (despite numerous unsettled situations including Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan and, now, Venezuela).  There is also one economic report today, Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

Futures are little changed in quiet trading following the Christmas holiday, as most European markets are closed for St. Steven’s Day.

There was no notable foreign economic out overnight.

On AI, Nvidia announced a partnership with AI Groq that is being positive received by markets (and boosting AI Enthusiasm).

Today should be a quiet trading day barring any geopolitical surprises as there are no economic reports, no meaningful earnings nor any Fed speak.