MMT Levels Chart: Concentration Risks Rise Again

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Targets – S&P 500 Chart
  • “Concentration” Approaches ATHs Amid Overbought Conditions

Futures are higher amid strength in tech/semiconductors on news that NVDA’s CEO Huang would join President Trump’s trip to China along with other big tech executives, contradicting previous reports.

Meanwhile oil and bond markets steadied overnight amid no material geopolitical headlines.

Economically, the Q1 Eurozone GDP Flash met estimates at +0.8% Y/Y, down from +1.2% in Q4 while EU Industrial Production fell from -0.6% to -2.1% vs. (E) -1.8% in March underscoring a loss of momentum in global growth underway in 2026.

Looking ahead to today’s session, trader focus will be on the second important inflation print of the week with PPI (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.8% y/y) due out ahead of the bell. A cooler-than-feared release would help ease this week’s upside pressure on bond yields which would be favorable for equities today.

Additionally, there are a pair of Fed officials scheduled to speak: Collins (11:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:15 p.m. ET) as well as a 30-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:30 p.m. ET (the stronger the demand metrics the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings continue to be released with BABA ($1.02) and CSCO ($0.86) two notable reports to watch today, however the market will be largely focused on Trump’s trip to China and any noteworthy progress towards a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

 

May MMT: Fundamental Improvement But What’s Next?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • May Market Multiple Table: Fundamental Improvement But What’s Next?

Futures are lower amid “risk-off/war-on” money flows (oil and yields higher) with no reported progress towards a U.S.-Iran ceasefire ahead of key U.S. inflation data today.

Economically, German CPI met estimates at 2.9% Y/Y while the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was little changed at 95.9 vs. (E) 96.1 in April, however the data is not materially moving markets with geopolitics remaining in focus.

Looking ahead to today’s session, the U.S. CPI (E: 0.6% m/m, 3.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) release will be one of the more important domestic data points released this week, and if the number comes in hot, a sharp rise in yields could weigh heavily on stocks.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker to watch: Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to impact bond markets and influence equity price action today.

Finally, a few earnings reports to watch today include SE ($0.70), JD ($0.43), and QBTS (-$0.10). As has been the case this earnings season, the better the quarterly results, the better in this market environment.

 

What Could Go Wrong for This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Go Wrong for This Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the ceasefire finally happen?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A big week for inflation

Futures are little changed despite no incremental progress on an official U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

On Sunday night President Trump declared Iran’s response to the ceasefire terms “totally unacceptable” and oil is rallying as a result, although markets still believe a ceasefire agreement will be reached (so stocks aren’t down much).

Economically, Chinese CPI rose more than expected (1.2% vs. 0.9% y/y) reflecting the inflationary effects of higher energy prices.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics as there’s only one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05M), and it shouldn’t move markets.  Regarding the U.S. and Iran, as long as the U.S. does not initiate widespread attacks on Iran again, markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire (and it shouldn’t be a material negative for stocks).

 

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Can a Run Hot Economy Turn into Stagflation?

Futures are modestly higher as President Trump downplayed the latest strikes on Iran.

President Trump called Thursday’s strikes on Iran a “love tap” and reiterated the ceasefire was still in place, easing markets concerns.

German Industrial Production slightly missed estimates (-3.0% vs. (E) -2.5% y/y) but that’s not moving markets.

Focus today will be on the April jobs report and expectations are as follows:  63K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 3.8% Y/Y Wage Growth.  The best case for markets remains a Goldilocks number that combines a solid jobs number modestly above estimates and stable wage growth at or below estimates.

Geopolitically, the market continues to ignore headlines about limited U.S./Iran strikes and likely will continue to do so as long as the administration says the ceasefire is still in place.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers this evening including Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee & Waller (7:30 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

Futures are little changed as markets digest Wednesday’s new highs following a generally quiet night of news.

Iran reportedly has agreed to transfer enriched uranium to a third country for storage and, if confirmed, that would be a major step towards a ceasefire agreement.

Economic data was solid overnight as German Manufacturers Orders rose more than expected (5.0% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Today geopolitics will continue to influence markets although at this point an agreed to ceasefire is mostly priced in, so an official announcement shouldn’t spark a material rally.

Away from Iran, we have Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 1.7%, 2.0%) along with several Fed speakers:  Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET), Hammack (2:05 p.m. ET) and Williams (3:30 p.m. ET).  For stocks to extend the rally, we will want to see stable economic data and Fed officials stressing that inflation is temporary (which means rate cuts remain a possibility later in the year).

 

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What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy (And What Does It Mean for Markets?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy and What Does It Mean for Markets?
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways

Futures are sharply higher amid positive geopolitical news and more strong mega-cap tech earnings overnight with AMD reporting blowout Q1 results (shares up ~25%).

Oil futures are down 10%+ and bond yields are off 8+ bp after Axios reported a U.S.-Iran peace deal that would result in the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will primarily be on the positive geopolitical developments but “jobs week” kicks off this morning with the release of the ADP Employment Report (E: 85K) pre-market.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (9:30 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, earnings season continues with DIS ($1.49), NVO ($0.87), UBER ($0.71), IONQ ($-0.55) and APP ($3.40) all scheduled to release quarterly results today.

 

Why the Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines Didn’t Hit Markets More on Monday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines Didn’t Hit Markets More on Monday
  • How Is the Consumer So Resilient (Low Unemployment)

Futures are solidly higher this morning and oil prices are down 2%+ as there were no further geopolitical escalations following Iran’s missile strikes on the UAE yesterday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates 25 bp to 4.35% but signaled policy rates are likely to remain “on hold” at current levels, limiting the hawkish impact on global bond markets.

Today, there are several noteworthy economic reports to watch including International Trade in Goods (E: $-60.4B), New Home Sales (E: 668K), ISM Services Index (E: 53.9), JOLTS (E: 6.8 million). Investors will want to see more signs of solid growth/employment and limited inflation pressures (specifically in the ISM release).

Additionally, there are two Fed officials speaking: Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barr (12:30 p.m. ET) and a handful of noteworthy earnings releases with investors still primarily focused on the tech names. Earnings today include: SHOP ($0.22), PYPL ($1.27), ET ($0.38), AMD ($1.06), SMCI ($0.55), and AMC ($-0.32).

 

The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Resilient Economic Data Keep Supporting Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Week (Jobs Report on Friday)

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest the latest U.S./Iran headlines, including the implication of “Operation Freedom” and a report a U.S. Naval vessel was attacked.

On Sunday, President Trump announced “Operation Freedom,” an operation whereby the U.S. military will help escort trapped tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s reaction to this is unclear, but there are unconfirmed reports a U.S. naval vessel was hit by Iranian missiles and oil is rallying in response (and futures are slipping).

Today headlines from the Gulf will dominate markets and if there’s a resumption of attacks between the U.S. and Iran, expect oil to spike and stocks to drop.  Outside of geopolitics, New York Fed President Williams speaks (12:50 p.m. ET) and for markets, the more dovish he is, the better.

 

How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

Futures are flat as markets digest Thursday’s big rally following generally “fine” earnings overnight and no changes to the U.S./Iran situation.

Apple (AAPL) posted solid results and the stock is up 3% pre-market, capping an overall strong Q1 reporting season.

Geopolitically, there was no new news on U.S. and Iran and markets still believe a ceasefire agreement is forthcoming.

Today focus will remain, as it has been, on geopolitics and economic data. On U.S./Iran, put simply, any ceasefire agreement will be a market positive (and help reinforce current gains) while any resumption of attacks would be a substantial negative (expect oil to spike 10% or more).

Economically, the key report today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.0) and markets will want to see Goldilocks data of solid headline activity and only modest price increases.  If we get a spike in the price index, it could offset any strong headline number.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but some important report to watch today include: CVX ($0.92), XOM ($1.07), CL ($0.95), MRNA ($-3.02).

 

What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

Futures are slightly higher despite mixed mega-cap tech earnings and negative headlines on Iran.

Mega-cap tech earnings aren’t moving markets as they were mixed and largely offset one another.

On Iran, reports continue to surface about an extended blockade of the Strait and that is boosting oil prices.

Today will be another busy day of economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) and given growing concerns about higher rates, this number needs to meet expectations.   Important growth metrics today include Advanced Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%) and Jobless Claims (E: 212K).

On earnings, it’s another important day and four reports we’re especially watching are: AAPL ($1.92), SNDK ($13.66), CAT ($4.55) and MA ($4.40) as they will give us insight into the state of AI and consumer/business spending.  As has been the case, the stronger the results, the better.

 

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