What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

Futures are slightly higher despite mixed mega-cap tech earnings and negative headlines on Iran.

Mega-cap tech earnings aren’t moving markets as they were mixed and largely offset one another.

On Iran, reports continue to surface about an extended blockade of the Strait and that is boosting oil prices.

Today will be another busy day of economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) and given growing concerns about higher rates, this number needs to meet expectations.   Important growth metrics today include Advanced Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%) and Jobless Claims (E: 212K).

On earnings, it’s another important day and four reports we’re especially watching are: AAPL ($1.92), SNDK ($13.66), CAT ($4.55) and MA ($4.40) as they will give us insight into the state of AI and consumer/business spending.  As has been the case, the stronger the results, the better.

 

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Understanding Why OpenAI Concerns Hit the Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why OpenAI Concerns Hit the Market
  • More Non-Confirmation from Treasuries and Oil

Stock futures are little changed ahead of today’s Fed decision and multiple widely anticipated Mag-7 earnings releases.

There were no market moving economic reports overnight and the U.S.-Iran ceasefires talks remains deadlocked.

Today, there are several important economic reports to watch including Durable Goods (E: 0.4%), Housing Starts (1.40M), and International Trade in Goods (E: $-87.8B).

From there, markets are likely to be quiet leading into the conclusion of the April Fed meeting with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) being the primary focus of today’s session.

After the market close, some of the most important earnings of the season will be released and the results could meaningfully move markets in after-hours trade. Those reporting today include: MSFT ($4.07), AMZN ($1.60), META ($6.71), GOOGL ($2.64), HUM ($9.97), ABBV ($2.62), ADP ($3.28), SOFI ($0.12), QCOM ($1.90).

 

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

Futures are in the red with tech leading the way lower after a WSJ article revealed OpenAI missed both revenue and user targets overnight which is dragging the broader market lower.

Meanwhile bond yields are rising globally on the combination of higher oil prices amid no progress towards a U.S.-Iran peace deal and hawkish central bank policy headlines (including a split BOJ decision).

Looking into today’s U.S. session there are a handful of noteworthy economic reports due to be released including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 89.4).

The April FOMC Meeting begins today which should begin to limit intraday volatility as a sense of “Fed Paralysis” starts to grip the market.

However, earnings season remains in full swing with SPOT ($3.72), UPS ($1.06), KO ($0.81), BP ($0.91), GM ($2.61), HOOD ($0.40), BE ($-0.02), V ($3.09), and BKNG ($1.10) all due to report quarterly results today.

 

Could Earnings Be More Important than War This Week?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Could Earnings Be More Important than War This Week?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Will Earnings Be Strong Enough to Offset any Geopolitical Disappointment?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed Decision on Wednesday (Will They Still Point to Rate Cuts?)

Futures are little changed despite no ceasefire meeting between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.

There were no additional ceasefire talks over the weekend but markets still view the ceasefire process as ongoing, so the “no meeting news” isn’t hitting stocks.

Economically, the only notable report was German Gfk Consumer Climate and it missed estimates (-33 vs. (E) -30).

This week could be very important for the rally as we have critical earnings, a Fed decision on Wednesday and potential progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz all looming. But, the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today, so any U.S./Iran ceasefire deal headlines should continue to drive markets.

On earnings, this is the most important week of the reporting season (especially Thursday) and some results we’re watching today include: VZ ($1.22), DPZ ($4.29), CLS ($1.98), NUE ($2.79) and UHS ($5.29).

 

Technical Take: Important Levels to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Take: Important Levels to Watch

Futures are mixed despite strong tech earnings and a three-week extension of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire.

Intel (INTC) surged 26% pre-market on blow out earnings and guidance and that’s helping to support futures.

Geopolitically, Israel and Lebanon extended the ceasefire but there was no more information on when the next U.S./Iran face to face talks will occur.

Today there is one economic report, Consumer Sentiment (E: 48.0) and some notable earnings, PG ($1.56), CHTR ($9.97), NSC ($2.51), HCA ($7.19), but geopolitics will remain the primary driver of markets.

To that point, while the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire is a positive, the market still only cares about the Strait of Hormuz reopening and because of that, when the next U.S./Iran talks occur will be the biggest potential catalyst today and the sooner, the better for markets.

 

A Tale of Three Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets await the next steps in the U.S./Iran ceasefire process while tech earnings underwhelmed overnight.

There was no new U.S./Iran news overnight as markets await the details of the next in-face U.S./Iran talks.

On earnings, IBM (down 7%) and TSLA (down 3%) underwhelmed on earnings and that’s weighing on futures.

Today focus will stay on U.S./Iran and key events now are 1) When the next face to face meeting happens (chatter implies this weekend) and 2) The dual naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz (any hint they could end would be positive).

Away from the Strait of Hormuz, there are important economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 210K), the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.5) and the Flash Services PMI (E: 50.0) and the stronger the data, the better as it’ll push back on stagflation concerns.

Finally, earnings season continues to heat up and two important reports today are AXP ($4.03) and INTC ($-0.11).

 

Sentiment Update: Stronger Than You Might Think

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: Stronger Than You Might Think
  • Warsh Confirmation Hearing Takeaway
  • Retail Sales – Resilient Consumer Spending Continues

Futures are bouncing back from yesterday’s geopolitically-fueled, late-session losses as President Trump declared an indefinite ceasefire with Iran after the close.

Economically, UK CPI met estimates at 3.3% Y/Y while Core CPI cooled 0.1% to 3.1% vs. (E) 3.2% in March, the latest release to suggest the U.S.-Iran war has not yet had a material impact on inflation pressures globally.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. However, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and influence equities today.

Finally, earning season continues with GEV ($1.79), BA ($-0.86), T ($0.55), ELV ($10.68), PM ($1.82), IBM ($1.81), LUV ($0.45), and the first Mag-7 name of the season, TSLA ($0.21) due to report today.

 

Why Are Markets Ignoring Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines Again?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Markets Ignore Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines (Again)?
  • Chart: Oil Prices Remain Subdued Despite Geopolitical Escalations

Futures are higher on hopes that another last-minute U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal will be reached before tomorrow’s deadline with slim chances of a U.S. extension this time around.

Meanwhile, domestic traders are awaiting Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill today as any hints at the potential futures policy path (particularly dovish commentary) could move markets.

Economically, U.K. Unemployment fell to 4.9% vs. (E) 5.2% in April while the German ZEW Survey badly missed estimates, however global market focus remains largely on the fragile geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

There are two notable economic reports due out in the U.S. today with Retail Sales (E: 1.4%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%) scheduled to be released this morning.

In addition to Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing (beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET), Waller will speak this afternoon (2:30 p.m. ET) and there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET, all of which have the potential to impact bond yields and subsequently influence equity markets.

Finally, earnings season continues with UNH ($6.48), GE ($1.63), MMM ($2.02), ISRG ($1.63), UAL ($1.08), and COF ($4.61) all due to release quarterly results today.

 

How Is the Market at All-Time Highs?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Is the Market at All-Time Highs?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Earnings and Economic Growth Continue to Support This Market?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Flash PMIs the Key Report This Week (More Insight into Stagflation Risks)

Futures are moderately lower on higher oil prices (up 5%) as Iran backtracked on its commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

Iran fired on two commercial ships transiting the Strait while the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, escalating tensions between the two countries.

Despite that escalation, ceasefire talks between the two countries are still expected to occur on Tuesday and markets still fully expect a lasting ceasefire to be agreed to in the relatively near future.

Today, focus will stay on geopolitics and as long as the ceasefire talks in Pakistan aren’t cancelled, markets should mostly ignore any negative geopolitical headlines.

Earnings season also rolls on this week and some notable reports today include: CLF ($-0.40), ALK ($-1.61), STLD ($2.79).

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (March Launches)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (March Launches)

Futures are modestly higher overnight on general optimism towards falling geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

President Trump continued to post encouraging comments about the U.S./Iran ceasefire and investors now fully expect a lasting agreement in the coming days.

The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is adding to the optimism, pushing oil modestly lower (down 3%).

Today will again be driven by geopolitical sentiment and there are reports the U.S. and Iran may meet in person over the weekend.  Confirmation of that meeting would be an incremental market positive.

Outside of geopolitics, there are no economic reports but there are three Fed speakers including Daly (11:30 a.m. ET), Barkin (12:15 p.m. ET) and Waller (2:00 p.m. ET) and the more they frame any inflation spike is temporary, the better for markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to roll on with a focus on regional banks today including: TFC ($0.99), FITB ($0.84), RF ($0.61) and STT ($2.58).