January Market Multiple Table (Rising Negative Pressure)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • January Market Multiple Table (Rising Negative Pressure on Market Influences)

Futures are modestly higher on dual de-escalation of recent Fed attacks and geopolitical tensions overnight.

President Trump stated last night he didn’t plan on firing Fed Chair Powell and downplayed the chances of a strike on Iran, de-escalating two negative market influences.

Today focus will be on economic data and earnings.  Starting with data, the key reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 212K), Philly Fed (E: -3.5) and Empire Manufacturing (E: 1.0) and stable readings that meet expectations will be the best-case scenario for stocks.  On the Fed front, there are three speakers today, Bostic (8:35 a.m. ET), Barr (9:15 a.m. ET) and Barkin (12:40 p.m. ET) and the more dovish they are, the better for markets.

Finally, turning to earnings, TSM ($2.82) already posted blow out numbers and that’s helping tech, but other reports we’re watching today include GS ($11.77), BLK ($12.41), MS ($2.41) and JBHT ($1.79).

 

Implications of Powell’s Criminal Investigation

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Implications of Powell’s Criminal Investigation
  • CPI Data Takeaways

Futures are moderately lower due to ongoing geopolitical angst and growing concerns about Japan’s fiscal situation ahead of snap elections announced for February.

Economically, Chinese trade data was strong overnight with Imports +5.7% vs. (E) -0.1% and Exports +6.6% vs. (E) +3.0%.

Today, investors will get a look at some delayed economic data from Q4’25 including PPI (E: 2.7% y/y), Core PPI (E: 2.6%), Retail Sales (E: +0.2%), and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.23 million). Investors continued to look for strong, but not “hot” growth numbers and “cool” inflation data.

There are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Paulson (9:50 a.m. ET), Miran (10:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (12:00 p.m. ET), and Williams (2:10 p.m. ET) with markets likely most focused on “Fed Independence” and any shifts in tone regarding 2026 rate cuts.

Finally, earnings season is continuing to ramp up with reports due from WFC ($1.66), C ($1.65), and BAC ($0.95) today.

 

Cutting Through the Policy Headline “Noise”

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Implications of Recent Policy Headlines
  • A Closer Look at Credit Card Limits and Defense Company Shareholder Return Policies

Futures are lower thanks to ongoing geopolitical tensions overseas and “Fed independence” concerns ahead of a key U.S. inflation report due ahead of the bell as well as the unofficial start of earnings season today.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index firmed by 0.5 points to 99.5 vs. (E) 99.4 in December which is being viewed as a modest positive this morning.

Starting with the critical pre-market catalyst, investors will be focused on the release of December CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and the all-important Core CPI figure (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y). An in-line to cooler-than-expected print would be ideal for the stock market rally to continue.

Shortly after the open, the delayed November New Home Sales data (E: 714K) will be released but is not likely to move markets as the report is dated at this point.

Looking into the middle of the day, the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong auction results yesterday offered the market a modest tailwind, helping the S&P 500 end positive, so investors will be looking for more strong demand in today’s auctions.

With the Fed in focus amid the Trump-Powell drama from the weekend, the two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barkin (4:00 p.m. ET) will likely be closely watched for any commentary regarding “Fed Independence.”

Finally, today marks the unofficial start to Q4’25 earnings season with quarterly results due from JPM ($5.01), DAL ($1.53), and BK ($1.97) and with rather optimistic earnings/revenue estimates for 2026, investors will be looking for strong results to support the equity rally.

 

How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Treasury Yields Remain Stable? (CPI, Possible SCOTUS decision, Fed concerns)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus This Week

Futures are moderately lower following the announcement of a federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell.

On Sunday night the government confirmed it had opened a criminal investigation focused on Fed Chair Powell and the construction of the Fed’s new headquarters.  The net impact of the news is to further pressure Fed independence and that is why futures are declining moderately.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on Washington, first via more details of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell and then on a potential Supreme Court IEEPA tariff decision.  Regarding the Fed, any news that further raises concerns about the loss of Fed independence will send Treasury yields higher and stocks lower.

There are also three Fed speakers today, Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (6:00 p.m. ET) and any dovish commentary from the three should help support markets (Williams is the most important speaker today).

 

“That leaves very little room for error” – Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

/in , /by

High valuations raise the stakes for U.S. jobs data to come in just right, according to Sevens Report Research

Stocks face their first real test of 2026 with Friday’s pivotal jobs report and possible tariff ruling

On Friday, investors will receive the U.S. Labor Department’s first jobs report of 2026, which covers the month of December. There are potential risks for investors whether the data come in stronger or weaker than expected, said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

That leaves very little room for error, Essaye said. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the report to show 73,000 new jobs were created last month; that would be an improvement from just 64,000 in the initial reading for November. The unemployment rate also is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%.

“As was the case for the last two jobs reports, a ‘Goldilocks’ number that shows solidly positive jobs growth and stable unemployment is the best-case scenario for stocks, and the number that can keep this rally going,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day (and Potential Tariff Decision)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day (and Potential Tariff Decision)

Futures are little changed ahead of today’s jobs report and the potential announcement of the Supreme Court’s IEEPA tariff decision.

Economic data was better than expected overnight as German Industrial Production and EU Retail Sales both beat expectations.

Today focus will first be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  E: 55K Job-Adds, 4.6% Unemployment Rate, 3.6% Wage Growth.  A Goldilocks number that shows job adds in line and no increase in unemployment will be the best case for stocks.

In addition to the jobs report, we could get the SCOTUS IEEPA tariff ruling today and if so, the key will be the 10-year Treasury yield.  If the yield jumps on the decision, that will be a new headwind on stocks.  Finally, there are two Fed speakers today, Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barkin (1:35 p.m. ET) and the more dovish they are, the better for markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

Futures are modestly lower on further digestion of the administration’s potential interference in industries.

The administrations’ proclamations on housing and defense company dividends/buybacks are weighing on markets as investors will only welcome so much government interference in business.

Economic data overnight was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders and EU Unemployment both beat estimates.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and given labor market anxiety, the stronger the claims number, the better.  There are two other economic reports today, Q3 Productivity & Costs (E: 3.6%, 0.8%), Consumer Credit (E: $9.7B), but they are unlikely to move markets especially given tomorrow’s jobs report looms just over 24 hours away.

 

What Could Make Markets Decline in 2026? (Three Events)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Make Markets Decline in 2026? (Three Events)
  • U.S. Composite PMI Commentary Notes “Cracks in the Economy”

U.S. futures and global markets are lower as traders digest the latest rally to all-time highs, weighing an uptick in geopolitical tensions in Asia against Goldilocks economic data out of the EU overnight.

Economically, the German Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 6.3% in November, as expected, while the Eurozone Core HICP (CPI equivalent) favorably fell to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% which has invited a bid into global bond markets.

Looking into today’s session, we will get the first look at important December labor market data in the U.S. via the ADP Employment Report (E: 47K) ahead of the bell and JOLTS (E: 7.65MM) shortly after the open.

Additionally, the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.2) will be an important release to watch after the open, along with Factory Orders data (E: -1.2%) while there is one Fed official scheduled to speak mid-day: Bowman (11:30 a.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that will offer a fresh look at bond traders’ assessment of the morning’s flurry of U.S. economic data and subsequent impact on Fed policy expectations (the stronger the demand the better).

 

What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways
  • Chart: Copper Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as the two-day gain to start 2026 is digested ahead of more U.S. economic and the all-important Consumer Electronics Show where NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang will speak at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Economically, the Final Eurozone Composite PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.5 vs. (E) 51.9 in December which mildly dented global soft landing optimism overnight.

Looking into the U.S. session, the Final U.S. Composite PMI (E: 53.0) and data on Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.7 million) are due to be released today while there is one Fed official speaking ahead of the bell: Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy expectations, however it will be most important to see a Goldilocks PMI print ahead of the most widely anticipated event of the day, the Consumer Electronics Show, where NVDA’s CEO is the keynote speaker scheduled to deliver remarks just as markets close (but futures will continue to trade as he speaks).

 

How Venezuela Could Impact Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Venezuela Could Impact Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Economic Data Start 2026 Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The Big-Three Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are modestly higher despite more geopolitical volatility as the U.S. shocked the world and infiltrated Venezuela and arrested President Maduro.

Market reaction to Maduro’s arrest has been generally muted, however, including in the oil markets where oil is only slightly higher, as political change in Venezuela likely will mean more oil production, not less.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on geo-politics (any continued fallout from the Maduro arrest) and economic data, as we get our first important economic report of 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.4).  Stability remains the key for economic data as we start the new year, so an in-line or slightly better number will be welcomed by markets.