Technical Take – All Time Highs (Bull vs. Bear Case)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Take – All Time Highs (Bull vs. Bear Case)

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news as markets digested the new highs.

There was no notable news on the U.S. and Iran overnight and the consensus view is that the ceasefire will be extended with an announcement coming any day.

Today focus will remain on Iran although as mentioned, a ceasefire extension is already priced in so if/when that’s announced, it likely won’t be an incremental positive catalyst.

Away from geopolitics, there are three notable economic reports including: Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Philly Fed (E: 12.0) and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).  Given stagflation fears, solid activity that’s near expectations will be welcomed by markets.  There are also two Fed speakers today, Williams (8:35 a.m. ET) and Miran (10:35 a.m. ET), with Williams the more important of the two (he’s part of Fed leadership).  If he’s a bit hawkish, that could marginally pressure markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to heat up with several important results today including: TSM ($3.31), ABT ($1.14), PEP ($1.55), NFLX ($0.76), AA ($1.60).

 

Not All Markets Are Signaling an “All-Clear” Yet

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Aren’t Treasuries or Oil Confirming The Rally in Stocks?
  • Return Table – Not All Markets Are Signaling an “All-Clear” Yet…
  • Producer Price Index Takeaways – Cooler Than Feared

Futures are slightly lower on mixed geopolitical headlines since yesterday’s close.

Overnight, Iran threatened to halt trade through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea if the U.S. Naval blockade of Hormuz continued, however the AP reported progress in ceasefire talks with a deal potential imminent.

Today, there are several noteworthy economic reports to watch in the U.S. including the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -2.0), Import & Export Prices (E: 2.1% m/m, 1.7% m/m), the latest Housing Market Index release (E: 37).

Additionally, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. and two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barr (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bowman (1:45 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to get underway with notable companies reporting today including ASML ($7.72), BAC ($1.00), MS ($3.06), PGR ($4.77), PNC ($4.12), and JBHT ($1.45).

 

Why Didn’t Stocks Fall Yesterday?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Didn’t Stocks Fall Yesterday?

Futures are tracking global shares higher amid hopes that continued U.S.-Iran talks this week will yield a lasting ceasefire and end to the war in the Middle East, critically including a sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell -3.0 to 95.8 vs. (E) 97.5 amid a spike in the Uncertainty Index.

Today, focus will remain on any news or developments regarding plans for the U.S. and Iran to resume ceasefire negotiations with rumors that President Trump may be in attendance and directly involved in the talks.

Additionally, we will get another important inflation report in the form of the March Producer Price Index release ahead of the bell (E: 1.2% m/m, 4.7% y/y) and there is a  52-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on bond traders’ Fed policy expectations.

There are also two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Goolsbee (12:15 p.m. ET) and Barr (12:45 p.m. ET) but they are unlikely to move markets.

Finally, Q1 earnings season continues to get underway with multiple big banks and large cap U.S. companies reporting quarterly results today including JPM ($5.46), BLK ($11.96), C ($2.64), WFC ($1.57), JNJ ($2.67), and ACI ($0.39).

Investors will be looking for favorable geopolitical news, “cool” inflation data, and strong earnings today in order for the robust April rally to continue.

 

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We continue to get feedback about how it is saving advisors time and helping them communicate with clients in this volatile environment!

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What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Dual Focus This Week on Iran but Also Key Bank Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

Futures are moderately lower as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.

The ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran yielded no material progress and, in response, President Trump ordered a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is boosting oil prices (up 8%) and weighing on futures.

Economically,  there were no notable reports over the weekend.

Today focus will stay on the Strait of Hormuz and specifically if the partial blockade goes into effect and, if so, whether that reignites direct conflict (if so, that would be an incremental negative).

Outside of geopolitics, this is an important week for earnings as we get major banks reporting this week (among other notable companies) and that starts today via GS ($16.34), FAST ($0.30) and FBK ($1.13) results.  In this environment, the stronger the earnings and guidance, the better for stocks.

Finally, there is one economic report today, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.07 million), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Sevens Report – MMT Chart (April Update)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (April Update)

Futures are little changed as markets tread water ahead of tomorrow’s U.S./Iran peace talks.

Despite conflicting headlines, the U.S./Iran ceasefire is holding enough for markets to remain stable ahead of face to face meetings Saturday morning.

Economically, the only notable report was German HICP which met expectations (2.8% y/y).

Today geopolitics will remain the dominant force on markets but as long as the face to face meeting Saturday morning isn’t cancelled, geopolitics shouldn’t weigh on markets too much.

Outside of the U.S./Iran war, we get important economic data today via CPI (E: 0.9% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y).  With inflation concerns rising, investors will want to see a better than expected Core CPI reading and if that does not happen and Core CPI spikes, it’ll be an additional negative on the market.

There are two other economic reports today, Consumer Sentiment (E: 52) and Factory Orders (E: -0.3%), but neither should move markets.

 

Market Multiple Table: Renewed Optimism (Maybe a Little Too Much)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table: Renewed Optimism (Maybe a Little Too Much)

Futures are modestly lower on digestion of Wednesday’s big rally, as there was no negative news overnight.

Geopolitically, the U.S./Iran ceasefire is holding, for now, despite conflicting reports of violations.  The next key event is Saturday’s first round of negotiations.

Economically, German Industrial Production was slightly weaker than expected (0.0% vs. (E) 0.3% y/y).

Today the primary focus of markets will stay on geopolitics and whether the ceasefire holds.  While there are conflicting headlines, the key remains President Trump.  As long as he doesn’t post that the ceasefire is off, then regardless of other headlines, it’s still on (at least from a market standpoint).

Outside of geopolitics, we do get some notable economic reports including Jobless Claims (E: 213K), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and Final Q4 GDP (E: 0.7%).  Of the three, the Core PCE Price Index is the most important but it’s February data (so before the war).  That said, if it’s higher than expected, that will only further increase inflation anxiety (which will be a mild negative on this market).

 

What the Ceasefire Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Ceasefire Means for Markets
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Update (April)
  • Durable Goods Orders Takeaways

Stock futures are sharply higher, and oil is down a staggering 15%+ this morning after a last minute ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached late yesterday, triggering broad risk-on money flows globally.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released however, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will shed light on bond traders “real” reaction to the ceasefire agreement. It will be important to see strong demand in the 10-Yr auction to assure investors stagflation worries have eased amid the ceasefire.

Additionally, while there are no Fed speakers today, the March Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and any insight on timing (and direction) of the FOMC’s next policy rate move has the potential to move markets this afternoon.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings reports today including DAL ($0.61), RPM ($0.37), and STZ ($1.74), however, the primary market focus will remain on the ceasefire deal, and any geopolitical developments today, particularly negative ones that push back on the prospects that the deal is sustainable, could trigger a retracement of the massive overnight moves.

 

Oil Thresholds to Watch This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • All About Oil – Key Price Thresholds to Watch This Week
  • March ISM Services Index Takeaways – A Fresh Whiff of Stagflation

Stock futures reversed from modest overnight gains to trade with mild losses during the last hour as hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire faded ahead of tonight’s deal-deadline.

Geopolitically, news that Iran has “rejected any temporary ceasefire with the U.S.” saw oil turn higher from overnight lows with WTI revisiting YTD highs near $115/barrel in pre-market trade.

Economically, the Final EU Composite PMI fell to 50.7 in March from 51.9 in February, slightly above the Flash reading of 50.5 but the data is not materially impacting markets given elevated geopolitical angst.

Looking into today’s session, there are two notable domestic economic reports to watch: Durable Goods (E: -0.2%) this morning and Consumer Credit (E: $12.0B) this afternoon.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Goolsbee (12:35 p.m. ET) and Jefferson (5:50 p.m. ET) and a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction (1:00 p.m. ET). Either speaker or any unexpected strength/weakness in the auction has the potential to move bonds which could impact equities (falling yields are the best outcome for equities today).

 

Three Factors Supporting This Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Factors Supporting This Market
  • Weekly Economic Outlook – All Eyes on Inflation Data

Markets are trading with a tentative risk-on/”war-off” tone with U.S. equity futures modestly higher while oil prices are well off overnight highs thanks to hopes a last-minute ceasefire deal with be struck between the U.S. and Iran.

Geopolitically, President Trump reiterated threats to strike Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure if a ceasefire deal is not struck by an 8 p.m. ET deadline Tuesday.

However, Axios reported progress towards a 45-day ceasefire deal overnight which is bolstering hopes for a last-minute U.S.-Iran deal after military strikes persisted over the weekend with multiple U.S. aircraft notably being shot down by Iran.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight.

Today, geopolitical headlines will remain the primary market focus and any signs that a ceasefire deal is likely to be agreed upon between the U.S. and Iran has the potential to spark a continued relief rally, extending last week’s gains in equity markets.

There is however, one notable domestic economic report to watch, the ISM Services PMI (E: 55.4) and one Fed official scheduled to speak: Barr (9:10 a.m. ET) which traders will keep tabs on as they return to the desk after the long Easter weekend.

 

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

Our Q1 ’26 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers last Wednesday, complete with compliance backup and citations.

We’re already receiving feedback about how it is saving advisors time and helping them communicate with their clients in this volatile environment!

You can view our Q4 ’25 Quarterly Letter here. To learn more about the product (including price), please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

 

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are sharply lower on surging oil prices (up 7%) as President Trump pushed back on near term deescalation hopes in the U.S./Iran war during his prime time address.

President Trump reiterated a limited U.S. operation (lasting another few weeks) but warned of further near term escalation and gave no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing near term ceasefire hopes and sending oil higher.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics (anything that increases the chances of a U.S. ground assault will further boost oil and be incrementally negative for stocks) but we do get two important labor reports via Jobless Claims (E: 213K) and Challenger layoffs.  Given geo-political uncertainty, the stronger the labor market data, the better as it will push back on stagflation concerns (although the data won’t stop the selloff without positive geopolitical news).

There is also one Fed speaker today, Logan (10:15 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.