Last Week in Economics – 4.10.17 The two important economic numbers came out Friday when markets were closed, so they didn’t receive much attention, although they should have. Both numbers (CPI and Retail Sales) further eroded the reflation trade thesis and will increase worries the economy is losing momentum. Starting with retail sales, the headline […]
Did Trump Just Kill The Reflation Trade? An excerpt from today’s Sevens Report. President Trump, in an interview with the WSJ yesterday, appeared to change his policy on the Fed and interest rates. Specifically, Trump said he thought the dollar was getting too strong, that he favored a low interest rate policy, and he was […]
Geopolitical risk has reared its head over the past week, but while the potential military showdowns in Syria or North Korea are the focus of the media headlines, in reality these events aren’t so much direct risks on stocks as they are a reminder of just how priced to perfection the stock market is right […]
An excerpt below from today’s subscriber edition of Sevens Report. Fed Balance Sheet Primer Markets remain consumed by politics and geopolitics, but really the biggest macro surprise so far for 2017 came from the Fed last week, with the realization that they could begin to shrink their balance sheet in 2017. That event has potentially […]
I was a guest on Adam Johnson’s podcast “The Bell” last week. We talk auto sales, free tuition, and a lot more. We were also joined by Dan Wiener, editor of the The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, who shares his 5 favorite funds and most “liquid” investment. Get a free two-week trial of Tom Essaye’s Sevens Report—everything […]
Last Week in Economics – 4.3.17 Signs of a slight loss of economic momentum continued last week, and while on an absolute level growth remains “fine,” stocks need consistently better data to off-set lack of action in Washington, and that’s simply not happening right now. As a result, stocks are “stuck” at the current levels […]
For the second month in a row the major issue for tomorrow’s jobs report is simple: Will it cause the Fed to consider more than three rate hikes in 2017? If the answer is “yes,” then that’s a headwind on stocks. If the answer is “no,” then stocks should comfortably maintain the current 2300-2400 trading […]
This is an excerpt from today’s Sevens Report—everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. One of the reasons I watch all asset classes so closely is because I’ve learned that other sectors often will confirm (or not confirm) a move in the stock market. […]
Below is an excerpt from today’s Sevens Report. Cut through the noise and understand what’s truly driving markets, as this new political and economic reality evolves—start your free two-week trial today. Economic data was the major influence on markets yesterday, and while most of the focus was on the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Markit manufacturing […]
“Last Week and This Week in Economics”—an excerpt from today’s Sevens Report: everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Last Week Economic data was sparse again last week, but what data did come beat expectations (although it didn’t do a lot to bridge the gap between survey-based indicators […]