Market Update: Trading One Source of Uncertainty for Another

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Update: Trading One Source of Uncertainty for Another
  • Weekly Market Preview: Another Test for AI Enthusiasm (Micron Earnings on Wednesday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: First Real Look at June Economic Growth This Week

Futures are slightly lower on digestion of Thursday’s rebound and some volatile (but not negative) geopolitical headlines over the weekend.

U.S./Iran headlines were volatile over the weekend but we ended it with the ceasefire still in place and negotiations on a nuclear deal ongoing (meeting market expectations).

Geopolitically, UK PM Starmer announced he will resign and that could put more upward pressure on global yields (which isn’t needed right now).

Today there are no economic reports and while Iran headlines will remain plentiful and likely conflicting, it should continue to fade as a market influence as neither side wants to escalate.

For today, that leaves a speech by the Fed’s Waller (9:00 a.m. ET) as the potential market moving event and if he comes out as hawkish or hints at possible rate hikes, that should put at least a mild headwind on stocks.

 

What the Warsh Fed Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Warsh Fed Means for Markets (Hawkishness vs. Uncertainty)

Futures are bouncing solidly as markets further digested new Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference and after the U.S. and Iran signed the ceasefire agreement.

New Fed Chair Warsh injected uncertainty into Fed operations/policy, but there were no substantial changes made yet and that’s helping stocks rebound this morning.

Geopolitically, the U.S. and Iran signed the ceasefire, two days earlier than expected, ending the conflict.

Today focus will return to economic data and the key reports today are:  Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 10.0) and Leading Indicators (E: 0.1%).  Given rising hawkish Fed concerns, the more Goldilocks the data (solid activity/low prices) the better for markets.

 

Sevens Report Alpha Webinar: Updated Macro Outlook (Post Iran War)

Yesterday marked the first Fed decision under Chair Warsh, while markets continue to digest a rapidly changing outlook for rates, inflation, and growth. At the start of the year, investors expected rate cuts, easing inflation, and steady economic growth. Today, the conversation has shifted toward the possibility of no rate cuts, persistently elevated inflation, and a hotter-than-expected economy.

In today’s Alpha Webinar, we will break down what the latest Fed decision means for markets, assess the current outlook for inflation and growth, and outline the key bullish and bearish scenarios investors should be considering as we enter the second half of 2026. If you want a clearer understanding of the macro forces likely to drive stocks and bonds in the months ahead, this is a webinar you will not want to miss. Learn more and register here: Sevens Report Alpha

Why Are “AI Stocks” Trading at Such Low Multiples? Ask ORCL (The AI Bear Case)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are AI Semiconductor and Memory Stocks Trading at Such Low Multiples? Ask ORCL (The Bear Case)

Futures are slightly higher in cautious pre-market trade as investors await the first Warsh-led FOMC decision today with oil holding near 3-month lows while the 10-Yr yield hovers near a 1-month low after mostly benign inflation data overnight.

Economically, Japanese Machinery Orders rose to +15.6% vs. (E) +9.9% y/y while U.K. CPI held steady at 2.8% vs. (E) 3.1% y/y and EU HICP met estimates at 3.2% y/y.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will be on consumer spending data early with Retail Sales (E: 0.5%) due to be released ahead of the bell.

Data on Business Inventories (E: 0.5%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%) will also be released shortly after the open which could impact markets but not likely meaningfully ahead of the Fed decision this afternoon which will likely result in quiet, choppy trading through the middle of the day.

Regarding the FOMC meeting the meeting statement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET before focus turns to Fed Chair Warsh’s first press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The more dovish the tone and favorable the commentary on the economy is in the wake of this week’s Fed meeting, the better for markets with the potential for a volatile move in either direction given the uncertainty risk surrounding the stance of the new Trump-appointed leader of the FOMC (“Fed Independence” remains a simmering source of concern).

 

Another Busy Week (Geopolitics and the Fed)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Weekly Market Preview: Two Headwinds Possibly Removed? U.S./Iran War and Fed Rate Hikes
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Does the Warsh Fed Give Markets a Dovish Surprise?

Futures are sharply higher (up more than 1%) after the U.S. and Iran announced a peace deal that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Global shares are rallying solidly after both the U.S. and Iran finally announced an agreement to end hostilities and fully reopen the Strait, meeting market expectations.

Oil prices are falling around 5% on the news and at multi-month lows, although still far above pre-war levels.

Despite the peace deal announcement, geopolitics will remain an influence on the market because the deal still has to be signed on Friday (and as we’ve seen, things can change quickly in this situation).  However, barring a major set back, geopolitics should face as a market influence by the end of the week.

Today, focus will be on economic data via the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 12.5) and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%).  With the Fed looming, Goldilocks data that shows solid activity and no upward price pressures will be welcomed by the market and add fuel to the rally.

 

How The World Cup Can Deliver Short-Term Outperformance

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Goal! These 9 ETFs Are a Way to Invest in World Cup Fever

Tom Essaye, author of The Sevens Report market newsletter, noted on Thursday that the World Cup “could potentially deliver short-term outperformance” for the economies of the host nations of the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF and iShares MSCI Canada ETF could be good bets on a macro lift for these host countries, Essaye said. Essaye also noted that stocks based in the countries of World Cup winners may be a winning trade too.

Essaye added that there could be “ripple effects on particular corners of the stock market.” Essaye pointed to the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF, which owns DraftKings and Flutter as top 10 holdings as well as several casino companies. 

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on June 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why the NFIB Small Business Survey Matters to You

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the NFIB Matters to You and Your Clients
  • PPI Takeaways – More Evidence Inflation Will Prove to Be “Transitory”
  • Jobless Claims Extend Steady Rise off of 2026 Lows

U.S. equity futures are extending yesterday’s broad market rebound with small caps leading as bond yields continue to retreat with oil trading near ~2 month lows with optimism for an imminent U.S.-Iran peace deal continuing to build.

Economically, German CPI was unchanged in May at -0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, meeting consensus estimates and further supporting a rise in global bonds (yields retreating).

Looking into today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak as the FOMC remains in their “blackout period” ahead of next week’s policy meeting which will leaving traders primarily focused on geopolitical headlines with markets sensitive to any material moves in the oil market and/or bond yields.

There is one potential catalyst due out shortly after the open with the preliminary release of the June Consumer Sentiment report (E: 46.1, Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations: 4.8%) which has a history of impacting broader inflation expectations and therefore could move yields (and potentially roil equities if the print is “hot”).

Finally, there are no noteworthy earnings releases today which will leave geopolitical news in keen focus leading into the weekend.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in The Money Show

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Currency Roundup: Watch the Dollar and Yen if You’re Trading FX

The US dollar rose to a multi-month high in overnight trade Monday amid negative geopolitical headlines. But ultimately the greenback paired gains and ended slightly lower as risk-on money flows returned with dip buyers at work in the equity market. The Dollar Index ended down 0.08%, notes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The yen edged up 0.09%, a modest move that proved to be one of the larger fluctuations of the day in the foreign exchange space. Japanese GDP was revised up and the yen was close to the “currency intervention threshold” of 160 – where the government stepped in to defend the yen in recent weeks – scaring shorts out of the market.

In Europe, the euro rose 0.07% as traders fully priced in a rate hike from the ECB on Thursday. The pound was flat as traders digest mixed economic data with no BOE meeting to position into this week.

Looking elsewhere, the Aussie dollar edged up incrementally amid risk-on money flows and the Canadian loonie fell slightly despite firming oil prices. The sharp reversal in WTI and Brent from early session highs tamped down optimism for the nation’s largest export while currency traders digested news that the Canadian economy fell into a “technical recession” in Q1.

Bottom line: It was a quiet day in forex to start the week. But with several central bank decisions due later in the week, volatility in the space could pick up materially.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on June 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

How to Capitalize on the World Cup (5 Top ETFs to Buy)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Capitalize on the World Cup – 5 Top ETFs to Buy
  • CPI Takeaways – Inflation Rises, But Core Up Less Than Feared

Futures are higher with tech/semis leading as the U.S. called an end to the latest wave of military strikes against Iran which is offsetting a negative reaction to ORCL earnings (shares down ~8%) due to lofty cap-ex plans.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight leaving traders focused on the ECB meeting announcement (8:15 a.m. ET) with President Lagarde’s press conference to follow.

Beyond the ECB decision, traders will be eyeing today’s Jobless Claims release (E: 215K) as well as the second important U.S. inflation print of the week: PPI (E: 1.4% m/m, 6.0% y/y). An in-line claims print and as-expected, or cooler-than-feared PPI print should help stocks stabilize.

Heading into the afternoon, the Treasury will hold a 4-Week & 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will offer further insight to the bond markets view of inflation/Fed policy outlook as the Fed remains in their “blackout period” ahead of next week’s meeting (no Fed speakers today).

Finaly, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases to watch today including: ADBE ($4.74), LEN ($1.23), and RH (-$2.07), and as has been the case all season, the stronger the results, the better.

 

Sevens Report Alpha

Clients are hungry for income again, but the traditional playbook is becoming harder to execute. Bond yields remain attractive in some areas of the market, yet many investors still want higher levels of cash flow without taking on excessive duration risk or stretching for yield.

That has fueled interest in a new category of products built around autocallable notes, a strategy that has historically been reserved for high-net-worth investors and structured product desks.

In this week’s Alpha Report, we break down how autocallable ETFs work, why they are gaining trac-tion, the risks investors need to understand, and where they may fit within a diversified portfolio.

If clients are asking for more in-come and you want to stay ahead of one of the fastest-growing areas of the ETF market, this is a report worth reading.

Sevens Report Alpha

You’re Seeing A Bounce And A ‘Buy The Dip Says Sevens Report

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The two underpinnings of the rally are really earnings and economic growth, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

The Dow Is Leading. Wall Street Is Selling Winners and Buying Losers.

“You’re just seeing sort of a bounce and a ‘buy the dip,’” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s. “The consumer is holding up really, really well. There are some concerns that increased price hikes into the coming months will continue to sort of strain consumer spending, but there’s just no real evidence that that’s happening yet.”

Essaye says that as long as the labor market holds on and AI spending continues to drive massive earnings growth, the market can keep chugging.

“All of this money being spent is essentially being just firehosed onto the economy by the hyperscalers, by investors that are just clamoring to build out these AI data centers, and it’s creating this, essentially additional stimulus program, that’s helping every sector of the market—every single one,” Essaye says. “If that is not self-sustaining, if all of that doesn’t have a net positive ROI, and it stops, then everything has a real big problem. But it’s not stopping any time soon.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 27th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted In TheEdgeSignapore

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S&P extends gain as chipmakers eye best two-day gain in Month

“The tech-led rebound in the wake of Friday’s market rout continues amid AI earnings optimism and easing geopolitical angst, as President Trump reiterates a peace deal with Iran is imminent,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of ‘The Sevens Report’ newsletter.

Also, click here to view the full article published in TheEdgeSingapore.com on June 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.