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Why We Could See a Short Term Rally (But We Wouldn’t Chase It)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why We Could See a Short-Term Rally
  • What the FOMC Minutes Meant for Markets (Not as Hawkish as Feared, But Not Dovish, Either)
  • EIA and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly weaker as negative headlines on Russia/Ukraine weighed on sentiment.

Russia accused Ukraine of attacking Russian-back separatists in the Dontesk region of Ukraine, and analysts fear this could be the pretext for a larger military conflict if Russia moves to annex Dontesk, (this would be a replay of what happened with Crimea in 2014).

Russia/Ukraine headlines are driving short term trading and that will remain the case today, with any headlines implying diplomacy causing a rally, and any headlines implying conflict causing a sell off.

Beyond geopolitics, however, we get several pieces of economic data, including Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Housing Starts (E: 1.708M) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 19.7) and as has been the case the market will be looking for stability in the data.

Finally, we also get two Fed speakers, Bullard (again) at 11:00 a.m. ET and Mester at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Understanding Fed Hawks vs. Fed Doves

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Fed Hawks vs. Fed Doves (Table)

Easing geopolitical tensions are driving risk on money flows this morning with U.S. stock futures higher by well over 1% while bonds and other safe havens decline.

Multiple news outlets reported overnight that Russian troops completed their drills and were returning to their bases, reducing fears of an imminent invasion of Ukraine.

There were a few economic reports overnight including the U.K. Labour Market report and the German ZEW Survey but both largely met estimates and neither meaningfully moved markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions but there are two notable economic reports to watch: PPI (E: 0.5%, 9.2%) and Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 10.0).

Bottom line, this is a headline driven market right now and investors will want to see continued de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (German Chancellor Scholz meets with Russian President Putin) as well as a PPI print that is not too hot and Empire report that shows growth is not materially slowing for the overnight relief rally to extend higher.

Why Not Much Changed in Markets Last Week (Despite the Declines)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line:  Why Not Much Changed In The Markets Last Week (Despite the Declines)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  FOMC Minutes (Wed) is the Key Report this Week.
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Investors Get Ukraine and Fed Clarity?

Futures are moderately lower following a quiet weekend of actual news, as futures are being pulled lower by international markets as there was no progress on the Russia/Ukraine standoff.

The Russia/Ukraine situation was unchanged over the weekend and a Russian invasion could occur at any moment and that is acting as a short term headwind on markets.

There was no notable economic or inflation data overnight.

Today Ukraine headlines will drive trading and any headlines that imply the start of a conflict will be a headwind, while any that imply a delay in hostilities will be a tailwind.  We also get one Fed speaker, Bullard (8:30 a.m. ET on CNBC) and he obviously moved markets last week with this 50 bps March hike and 100 bps of tightening by June calls, so we’ll be watching closely to see if he further clarifies or doubles down on those comments (any dovish clarification would provide a small tailwind for stocks).

Is the Ukraine Conflict a Threat to Stocks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Russia/Ukraine a Potential Major Bearish Event? (Good, Bad, and Ugly Scenarios)
  • Chart: S&P 500 Tipping Points to Watch

Stock futures are flat and international markets traded mixed through a quiet night of news however Treasury yields notably continued to grind higher overnight.

Economically, the January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 97.1 vs. (E) 97.5 but the release is not materially moving markets this morning.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one lesser followed economic report due out: International Trade in Goods (E: -$83.0B), which should not have a major impact on trading, while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

Earnings season is already beginning to wind down but a few notable releases today include: PFE ($0.85), BP ($1.18), and PTON (-$1.18).

Bottom line, investors are continuing to digest last week’s jobs print and looking ahead to the CPI report on Thursday as the main driver of the market remains central bank policy expectations. There is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET today and with an otherwise quiet calendar the results could move markets (strong auction = dovish, stocks can rebound; weak auction = hawkish, volatility likely to rise).