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Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on February 22, 2022

The Russia Issue Is Hurting the Stock Market. How Things Could Get Worse.

Regarding Ukraine, investors will await the announcement of new sanctions from the west against Russia, and depending on how severe they are, it could add to the selling pressure on stocks…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.  Click here to read the full article.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Coinspeaker on February 23, 2022

Dow Jones Tanks as Tension between Russia and Ukraine Escalates

The Russia/Ukraine situation remains very fluid, and tensions remain high, and in the short term that will remain a headwind on stocks…said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Big News Network on February 23, 2022

The Russia/Ukraine situation remains very fluid, and tensions remain high, and in the short term that will remain a headwind on stocks…Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report told CNBC Tuesday. Click here to read the full article.

What the Russian Attack on Ukraine Means for Markets

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Russian Attack on Ukraine Means for Markets
  • What’s Next in This Situation
  • What We Are Doing Today

Futures are down close to 3% as Russia launched an attack on Ukraine beyond the Donbas region.

Early Thursday morning Russia launched missiles at numerous targets in Ukraine and landed troops throughout the country, dramatically escalating the conflict.

Commodity prices shot higher, including oil, which is up more than 7%

Today focus will obviously be on the Russian attack and how far it goes, along with the severity of the international sanctions against Russia.  Anything that implies a further escalation will weigh further on markets and send commodity prices even higher.

Outside of Russia/Ukraine, there are numerous economic reports and Fed speakers:  Revised Q4 GDP (E: 7.0%), Jobless Claims (E: 230K). Fed Speak: Barkin (9:00 a.m., 12:00 p.m. ET), Bostic (11:10 a.m. ET), Mester (12:00 p.m. ET), Waller (8:00 p.m. ET).

Hedging Uncertainty with Russia/Ukraine

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hedging Uncertainty with Russia/Ukraine
  • PMI Composite Flash Takeaways (Strong Report)
  • Consumer Confidence Index: Chart

Stock futures are enjoying a bounce this morning, tracking global equity markets higher as investors view the initial rounds of sanctions on Russia as less severe than feared while inflation data out of Europe was mildly encouraging.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Narrow Core HICP reading was -0.9%, down from +0.4% in December suggesting price pressures may finally be peaking in parts of the world.

Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports to watch and just one Fed speaker ahead of the bell: Daly (9:00 a.m. ET).

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move markets but investor focus is likely to remain on any developments with the Russia/Ukraine situation.

After the close yesterday, it was reported that the scheduled meeting this week between Blinken and Lavrov was called off, which was a negative development but if we see a new meeting agreed to, or any signs of further de-escalation in the conflict today, stocks could enjoy a potentially sizeable relief rally. Conversely, further aggressive actions in Ukraine by Russia and/or more severe sanctions being announced by the West would likely drive more risk-off money flows.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on February 16, 2022

Gold settles at 8-month high as tension over Ukraine resurfaces

The geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine have been the latest catalyst to propel gold to fresh 2022 highs…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks on February 21, 2022

Russian Finance Ministry Says Crypto Shouldn’t Be Legal Currency

It is a similar situation to the 2014 Russian invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, once part of Ukraine…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Ukraine Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line: Real Focus Remains on the Fed and Growth
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Rising Threat of Stagflation?

Stock futures are down slightly this morning but well off the overnight lows as traders digest the latest geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine.

Russian President Putin recognized the independence of two “breakaway” regions in eastern Ukraine yesterday, but the risk of a full scale invasion of Ukraine still remains low.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released including: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.0%), PMI Composite Flash (E: 51.9), and Consumer Confidence (E: 110.0). There is also one Fed speaker on the schedule: Bostic (3:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and with the underlying market focus still on future Fed policy, a soft outcome (hawkish) could add to the current geopolitically fueled market volatility.

Regarding Ukraine, investors will await the announcement of new sanctions from the west against Russia, and depending on how severe they are, it could add to the selling pressure on stocks today. Additionally, as of now, Blinken and Lavrov are still scheduled to meet this week but if that meeting is canceled that will suggest a more severe conflict is imminent, resulting in more risk-off money flows.

Is a Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Bearish Gamechanger? (Updated)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is a Russian Invasion of Ukraine a Bearish Gamechanger?  (Updated)

Futures are enjoying a modest bounce as the headlines on Russia/Ukraine turned a bit more positive overnight.

The U.S. Secretary of State and his Russian counterpart will meet next week, signaling diplomatic efforts to de-escalate will continue.

Economic data was sparse but generally solid as Japanese CPI met expectations while UK Retail Sales beat estimates.

Today’s focus will again be on geopolitical headlines, and any reports of de-escalation will help stocks recoup more of Thursday’s losses, while negative headlines will likely erase these early gains.

Beyond the Russia/Ukraine situation, we do get three Fed speakers today, two of which are Fed leadership:  Williams (11:00 a.m. ET) and Brainard (1:30 p.m. ET). If they make hawkish commentary (especially Brainard) look for stocks to drop again.  Fed President Evans (10:15 a.m. ET) also speaks this morning.

Finally, on the economic front, we get one report today, Existing Home Sales (E: 6.08M), but that shouldn’t move markets.

Why We Could See a Short Term Rally (But We Wouldn’t Chase It)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why We Could See a Short-Term Rally
  • What the FOMC Minutes Meant for Markets (Not as Hawkish as Feared, But Not Dovish, Either)
  • EIA and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly weaker as negative headlines on Russia/Ukraine weighed on sentiment.

Russia accused Ukraine of attacking Russian-back separatists in the Dontesk region of Ukraine, and analysts fear this could be the pretext for a larger military conflict if Russia moves to annex Dontesk, (this would be a replay of what happened with Crimea in 2014).

Russia/Ukraine headlines are driving short term trading and that will remain the case today, with any headlines implying diplomacy causing a rally, and any headlines implying conflict causing a sell off.

Beyond geopolitics, however, we get several pieces of economic data, including Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Housing Starts (E: 1.708M) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 19.7) and as has been the case the market will be looking for stability in the data.

Finally, we also get two Fed speakers, Bullard (again) at 11:00 a.m. ET and Mester at 5:00 p.m. ET.