“Concerns about the Chinese economy grew this morning after real estate firm Country Garden suspended trading in select offshore bonds, reminding investors of Chinese property market volatility from years ago and reinforcing that recession risks in China are real,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research.
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The Country Garden news reinforced the notion that “recession risks in China are real,” explained Sevens Reports’ Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
Concerns about China’s economy increased Monday after Country Garden Holdings Co. suspended trading in some offshore bonds, “reminding investors of Chinese property market volatility from years ago and reinforcing that recession risks in China are real,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note. He also cited “downbeat trade data out of China” last week, with imports and exports both missing estimates.
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“This scenario would essentially undermine the three pillars of the rally, and as such investors should expect a substantial decline in stocks, even considering the recent pullback,” Tom Essaye said in a note last week. “In fact, a decline of much more than 10% would be likely in this scenario, as it would undermine most of the rationale for the gains in stocks since June (and perhaps all of 2023).”
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“The market already assumes continued disinflation, so the fact that inflation declined modestly in July just met existing (and already priced in) expectations,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “And, much of the gains in the morning were technical, on a rebound from Wednesday’s drop and an anticipation of the CPI report. But, when it failed to provide a new, positive catalyst, we saw trade exit positions as this market needs something new and positive to rally, not just confirmation of what we already assume and have priced in.”
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“Consumer gasoline demand has collapsed at a record pace in recent weeks,” wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye, who noted that crude is likely to fall from $83 if demand doesn’t soon stabilize. Click here to read the full article.
Wednesday’s market action is a reminder to investors that stocks can still go down, Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, said in an interview with Barron’s.
“When you have a market that is essentially pricing in nothing bad happening and all of a sudden you get kind of a surprise – then it’s a reason to sell and I think that’s what we’re seeing today,” Essaye said.
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Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye explained in a Wednesday note that the credit downgrade by Fitch “should have a limited near-term impact”. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher despite underwhelming economic data as markets look ahead to a busy week of central bank decisions, earnings and economic data.
Economically, data was not Goldilocks as the Euro Zone and UK flash PMIs missed estimates, falling to 48.9 vs. (E) 49.6 and 50.7 vs. (E) 52.2 respectively, and they reminded investors rate hikes can still slow growth.
Today focus will be on the July Flash Composite PMI (E: 53.1), as this is the first “big” number of July, and markets will want to see stability in the data to keep the Goldilocks rally going.
The major earnings reports occur later in the week but results we’ll be watching today include: DPZ ($3.04), NXPI ($3.29), WHT ($3.80), LOGI ($0.45) and we’ll be looking for any signs of margin compression due to on going disinflation.
While it’s undeniable that fears of a hard landing, inflation and hawkish Fed have not materialized, the reality is that the current level of the S&P 500 largely factors all of that in, so last week’s CPI and PPI reports didn’t provide the market with a new positive catalyst, but instead just reinforced what was already widely assumed,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a Monday note. Click here to read the full article.
