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Political Risks to this Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Political Risks to This Market

Futures are sharply lower (about 1%) as bad economic data is furthering worries about a slowdown in global growth.

Chinese Retail Sales (8.1% vs. (E) 9.0%) and Industrial Production (5.4% vs. (E) 5.9%) both badly missed estimates.

In Europe, the flash composite PMIs also missed expectations at 51.3 vs. (E) 52.5.

Geopolitically it was a quiet night although Chinese officials confirmed the reduction of auto tariffs to 15% from 40% (this was already pledged but it is good to see it will be enacted on Jan 1.).

Today it’s all about economic data.  The numbers from China and the EU this morning were not good and fears of a global economic slowdown are rising, and we need Retail Sales (E: 0.1%) and Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) to push back on that narrative, otherwise today could be another ugly day.

Dow Theory Just Turned Bearish

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dow Theory: First Bearish Signal Since July 2015

Futures are enjoying a bounce this morning after top economic officials from the US and China held a conference call o/n regarding the next stages of trade negotiations.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey was mixed as the Current Conditions reading badly missed at 45.3 vs. (E) 55.0 but Business Expectations were not as bad as feared: -17.5 vs. (E) -26.0.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was a disappointment this morning with the headline coming in at 104.8 vs. (E) 107.0, the lowest headline since May.

Looking at the calendar today, the catalyst list is fairly thin as there is only one economic report: PPI (E: 0.0%) however inflation has been an important topic recently and a material “miss” or “beat” could move markets. Meanwhile there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

That will leave the primary focus of the market on U.S.-China trade relations including any further developments or details from last night’s “trade call” as well as the Huawei CFO’s bail hearing in Canada.

Bottom line, as long as we see more positive trade headlines, sentiment should improve and trade optimism will likely continue to act as a near term tailwind for markets.

Technical Update (Encouraging Signals)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Technical Update (Encouraging Signals)
  • Why Stocks Rebounded Yesterday
  • Why the Yield Curve Has Flattened SO Quickly (Blame Oil)

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest yesterday’s late day rally and look ahead to this morning’s jobs report.

Geopolitically, initial reports imply the U.S./China trade talks will continue despite the Huawei CFO arrest, which if confirmed is clearly a positive.

Global economic data was mixed again as Chinese currency reserves beat estimates while German IP missed.  But, neither number is moving markets this morning.

Today is all about the jobs report and given sudden uncertainty on Fed policy (will they pause?) this jobs report is now the most important one of the year.  Expectations are as follows:  Job Adds: (E) 190K, UE Rate: (E) 3.7%, Wages (E) 3.2% yoy), and the best outcome for stocks is a “mild miss” across all three segments.

Away from the jobs report we also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 97.4) and one Fed speakers, Brainard (12:15 p.m. ET).

Why Stocks Dropped (Again)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday
  • More Housing Trouble?
  • Are “Gassy” MLPs a Buy?

Futures are moderately lower on momentum as Monday’s U.S market declines spilled over globally and international weakness is now weighing on futures.

Economically it was another quiet night as German PPI met expectations at 3.3% while UK Industrial Trends were better than expected (10 vs. (E) -5).

There was no new news on the Fed or U.S./China trade although expectations are rising for a Trump/Xi “truce” at the G-20 and a more dovish tone from the Fed.

Today will be another quiet day, at least based on the calendar, as we have no Fed speakers and just one economic number: Housing Starts (E: 1.24M).   Given that, focus will remain on tech and the super cap names specifically.  FDN needs to stabilize and bounce to help arrest this short term sell off and that ETF is now at the top of my quote screen, as it’s driving the markets in the very short term.

Was Yesterday an “All Clear?”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dusting Off An Old Leading Indicator for Recessions
  • Was Yesterday an “All Clear?”

Futures are extending Tuesday’s rally thanks to decent overnight earnings and despite universally disappointing economic data.

FB earnings beat after the bell yesterday and the stock rallied 3% after hours, capping a decent day of earnings.

Economically, Chinese Oct. Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 vs. (E) 50.6.  Japanese IP and German Retail Sales also missed expectations.

Today focus will remain on earnings.  GM ($1.26) is the highlight but if the broad number of results are “ok” that should continue to help sentiment.  Economically the ADP Employment Report (E: 178K) and Employment Cost Index (E: 0.7%) are the two key reports, and both need to show “Goldilocks” readings (firm but not strong enough to make the Fed hawkish) for this bounce to continue.

Four Steps to a Bottom

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Update
  • Four Steps to a Bottom

US futures are in the red again this morning although there is again no clear reason why while overseas shares traded mostly “ok” overnight amid mixed economic data.

Japanese PMI Manufacturing Flash beat (53.1 vs. E: 52.6) helping the Nikkei rally but EU data was on the soft side.

As far as US economic data goes today, there are two reports on the housing market this morning: FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%) and New Home Sales (E: 625K) while the more important release to watch will be the PMI Composite Flash (E: 54.1) due out shortly after the open.

The Fed speaker circuit also remains busy with Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET, 2:00 p.m. ET), Bullard (11:30 a.m. ET), and Mester (12:30 p.m. ET) all speaking during the Wall Street session today.

Lastly, and likely most importantly for stocks right now, there are a slew of earnings reports today. A few notables include: BA ($3.51) and T ($0.93) ahead of the open and MSFT ($0.96) and V ($1.20) after the close.

Buy the Dip or Fade the Bounce?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Buy the Dip or Fade the Bounce?

US stock futures are down roughly 10 points this morning as yesterday’s big rally and notable post-market gains thanks to strong NFLX earnings are digested and investors look ahead to the Fed Minutes today.

Economically, EU HICP (their CPI equivalent) was in-line with expectations at 2.1% yoy but the core figure was soft, slipping to 0.9% from 1.0% which is mildly dovish for ECB policy outlook.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report due out: Housing Starts (E: 1.221M) which will leave investors primarily focused on the FOMC Minutes due out at 2:00 p.m. ET. Earnings season takes a breather today as there are no major releases.

On that note, the huge beat by NFLX after the close yesterday should help tech shares continue to trade well this morning which could see this rebound extend higher into the Fed release this afternoon.

Tom Essaye on The Wall Street Journal – His Take on U.S. Stocks Rebounding, October 12, 2018

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U.S. Stocks Rebound After Two-Day Rout

“If next week’s data comes in firm and shows us that this economy isn’t losing momentum, then that will likely provide a big confidence boost to stocks, and could help support a rebound,” said Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Read the full article here.

Updated Market Outlook Post Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting the Pullback In Context (We’ve Seen Something Similar Twice This Year)
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About Earnings and Data)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Market Needs a Confidence Boost)

Futures are moderately lower following a generally quiet weekend, as markets digest Friday’s bounce.

Nothing outright negative occurred over the weekend to cause the resumption of selling. But, there was no improvement in any macro headwinds either and as such markets are digesting Friday’s gains.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will turn towards economic data and we get two important reports: Retail Sales (E: 0.6%) and Oct. Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: 19.3).  Strong readings will give the market a needed boost of confidence as they’ll remind investors the economic remains strong.

On the earnings front, activity picks up starting tomorrow but there are two notable reports today:  BAC (E: $0.62), SCHW (E: $0.64).

Sell Off: Why It Happened and What’s Next

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sell Off Takeaways: Why We Don’t View It as a Bearish Gamechanger (Yet).
  • Technical Update:  Key Support Levels to Watch
  • Why Didn’t Bond Rally Yesterday? (Important)

Futures are sharply lower as global markets dropped following the Wednesday rout in U.S. stocks.

Nothing new occurred overnight to cause the additional selling this morning and this is all momentum driven.

There was no notable economic data or geo-political news out overnight and the sell-off itself was the focus of most of the financial media.

Today the key event is the Core CPI report (E : 0.2% m/m, 2.3% y/y) out this morning.  This release is even more important than before because if it prints “hot” (core CPI above .4% m/m) that will add to the concern that the Fed is going to get more hawkish and that will add another source of pressure on stocks, which we obviously don’t need right now.  Conversely, if this number is inline of a little light, that could provide a catalyst for markets to try and stabilize.