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Economic Breaker Panel: May Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel: May Update

Futures are little changed this morning while international markets were mixed overnight in quiet trade as investors assess the risk-reward of reopening global economies.

Economically, China’s April PPI headline notably fell further into deflationary territory, down -3.1% from -1.5% suggesting an ongoing lack of demand throughout China’s supply chain.

Meanwhile the April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S. dropped by less than feared to 90.9 vs. (E) 84.8 and the forward looking “6-month outlook” jumped 24 points as business owners maintain hopes for an economic rebound in the second half of the year.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: CPI (E: -0.8%) while multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Bullard (9:00 a.m. ET), Quarles (10:00 a.m. ET), Harker (12:00 p.m. ET), and Mester (5:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if the outcome lifts longer dated yields, the curve could further steepen out to multi-month highs which would be an encouraging development and add a tailwind to the equity markets today.

Why Are Stocks So Resilient (And Can It Continue?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Stocks So Resilient (And Can It Continue?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More re-openings and stimulus this week?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Claims still key, but Friday’s data is also important.

Futures are modestly lower following a quiet weekend as markets digest last week’s gains.

Economic data from China continued to come in better than feared, as New Yuan Loans grew 11.5% vs. (E) 10.3% while auto sales declined just –5.5% in April compared to –40% in March.

The Chinese data continues to sew hopes for a relatively quick, “V” shaped economic recovery in the U.S., and that expectation is helping to support stocks.

Today there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Evans (3:30 p.m. ET), so headlines on economic re-openings and a potential additional stimulus bill should drive markets (if the re-opening headlines are good and prospects for another stimulus bill continue to rise, markets should be able to continue to digest the recent rally).

Current Market Catalysts (They Changed Last Week)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Current Market Catalysts:  From Reopening and Remdesivir to Normalization and Nationalism
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Jobs Report This Friday)

Futures are moderately lower as U.S./China tensions rise while markets begin to shift their focus towards when the economy will return to normal.

U.S./China tension over the origin of the coronavirus rose over the weekend as Secretary of State Pompeo said there was “enormous” evidence that suggests the virus was created in a lab.

Economically, the EU manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, coming in at 33.4 vs. (E) 33.6.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers, so markets will trade off any U.S./China coronavirus tension headlines, along with any hints of when the economy might return to some semblance of “normal” as those two issues have now become the main drivers of stocks in the near term.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on April 27, 2020

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“All the data is horrific. But it’s getting less bad than it was say a couple weeks ago and that’s especially true with…” said Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 28, 2020

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“Coronavirus headlines were mostly positive overnight as there were reports of expanded testing capabilities in the U.S., the growth rate of new cases continues to…” writes The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.

New York Stock Exchange

Fed Meeting Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

S&P futures are up 1% this morning, tracking European shares higher as economies around the globe begin to reopen while investor focus shifts ahead to the slew of earnings releases in the coming days as well as multiple central bank meetings this week.

Coronavirus headlines were mostly positive overnight as there were reports of expanded testing capabilities in the U.S., the growth rate of new cases continues to slow in the U.S., and states across the country are beginning the process of lifting COVID-19 containment policies.

The FOMC meeting begins today (concluding tomorrow) while there are a few notable economic reports to watch this morning: International Trade in Goods (E: -%51.5B), S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.4%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 95.0).

Investors will be increasingly focused on earnings this week as we approach the peak of the Q1 reporting season.

There are several major corporations, from manufacturing to tech sectors, releasing results today including: MMM ($2.02), PEP ($ 1.02), PFE ($0.71), UPS ($1.23), CAT ($1.77), MRK ($1.39), LUV (-$0.48), BP ($0.28),  AMD ($0.18), GOOGL ($10.97), F (-$0.10), CHRW ($0.71).

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on April 24, 2020

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Tom Essaye, The Sevens Report founder interviewed with Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi and Alexis Christoforous discussing the market action, jobless claims, earnings and more. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on April 21, 2020

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“The historic drop by front month oil futures was largely due to logistical issues in the physical market, namely lack of available storage…” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

What the Bulls Need to Believe

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Bulls Need to Believe
  • Weekly Market Preview:  The Remdesivir trial results are the biggest event this week.
  • Weekly Economic Cheatsheet:  Fed meeting Wednesday (will they reiterate the promise to do whatever it takes to support the markets?)

Futures are moderately higher as markets are extending Friday’s rally following a very quiet weekend.

Anticipation for the reopening of the U.S. and global economy is the “reason” for the rally this morning, although nothing new occurred on that front over the weekend.  Instead, there was just a lot of chatter about reopening in the media, and that is helping stocks rally absent any other important news.

There were no economic reports overnight.

Notably, markets are ignoring a greater than 10% drop in oil prices this morning, as oil markets digest last week’s volatility (and late week rally).

Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers, so markets will remain focused on the rollout of reopening plans by states (larger states matter most), and the results from a Remdesivir trial, which will come literally any day this week.  The Remdesivir trial results need to meet optimistic expectations, otherwise we’ll likely see another drop in stocks similar to what we say last week.

What’s Next for Oil?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Oil Crash and Contango Explained
  • Why Is Copper Considered to have a PhD?

Stock futures are enjoying a solid 1%+ bounce this morning while international markets were mixed overnight as oil prices are relatively steady following a two day rout.

WTI crude oil futures, which turned negative on Monday, are wavering between gains and losses this morning but are importantly well above yesterday’s lows ahead of the key weekly EIA inventory report this morning (10:30 ET).

There are no Fed speakers today and just one second tiered economic report that shouldn’t move markets: FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.4%).

Earnings season is in full swing, continuing today with reports from: DAL (-$0.72), T ($0.84), BIIB ($7.74), CSX ($0.92), AA (-$0.29), KMI ($0.24), DFS ($1.80), and STX ($1.29).

Investors remain shaken by the historic surge in oil market volatility this week and energy will continue to be a primary focus of the market today.

And if the EIA print mid-morning is bearish (big inventory builds, resilient U.S. production, low refinery runs), and oil comes for sale again, stocks will likely struggle to maintain this morning’s bid.