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Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • May JOLTS Report Takeaways

Stock futures are sharply lower along with most international equity markets this morning while bond yields are extending recent declines amid new COVID-19 concerns.

Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, issued a state of emergency for Tokyo overnight and the latest reports suggest spectators will be banned from the summer Olympics which is weighing heavily on investor sentiment today.

10-Year yields are down another 7 basis points in early trade while travel and leisure shares are leading markets lower in the pre-market, underscoring concerns about the state of the economic recovery and emerging concerns surrounding the Delta variant of COVID-19.

Today, there is just one economic report: Jobless Claims (E: 353K) and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

Investors will be looking for a continued drop in the weekly jobless claims data but focus will likely be on COVID-19 trends and the latest lockdown developments as the health of the economic recovery is reassessed.

Market Multiple Table: July Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table: July Update
  • OPEC+ Update

U.S. stock futures are trading modestly higher with tech shares outperforming (Nasdaq futures are at a fresh record) as bond yields continue to fall to multi-month lows ahead of the Fed Minutes release this afternoon.

Economically, German Industrial Production fell -0.3% vs. (E) +0.5% in May, adding to a recent string of disappointing global economic data that has been pressuring bond yields.

Today, there is just one economic report to watch: May JOLTS (E 9.30M), and while it’s a dated release, some components of the report could shed some new light on the current trends of the labor market.

Looking to the Fed, the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) will be the main focus today as investors look for further clarity on the Committee’s taper timeline and eventual plans for raising rates. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on July 1, 2021

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Stocks Close Up. The S&P 500 Hits Another High.

Markets will want ‘Goldilocks’ data to start the quarter, in that the numbers show solid…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Second Half Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Second Half Outlook
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Stock futures are little changed with investors focused on OPEC+’s failure to reach a new output policy agreement yesterday while economic data was mixed overnight.

OPEC+ called off a follow-up meeting yesterday after the UAE would not agree to extending production cuts through 2022 which drove oil to new multi-year highs in overnight trading as current cuts will remain in place by default, deepening supply deficit expectations for the second half of the year.

Economically, Final Composite PMI reports were mostly as expected while EU Retail Sales topped estimates but none of the data materially moved markets overnight.

Today, there is just one notable economic report to watch: ISM Services Index (E: 63.5), and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. That will leave investors focused on the oil market in the wake of the OPEC+ developments as well as awaiting any news on infrastructure as the calendar is otherwise fairly quiet as we start the holiday-shortened trading week today.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo News on June 30, 2021

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Welcome to a new era of eating habits

This is the first quarter where we can honestly say it looked more like the…says Tom Essaye, a former trader who writes the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

Jobs Report Preview (Could It Make the Fed More Hawkish?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview – Could A “Too Hot” Report Make the Fed more Hawkish?
  • Oil Update and EIA Analysis

Futures are slightly higher following a night of mixed economic data.

Global June manufacturing PMIs were mixed as the Japanese (52.4 vs. 53.0) and UK (63.9 vs. (E) 64.2) PMIs missed estimates, while the EU manufacturing PMI beat expectations (63.4 vs. (E) 63.1.).

The net impact of the data is to show the global recovery is on going, but also that it has lost a bit of momentum.

Today’s focus will be on economic data, with the two important reports being Jobless Claims (E: 387K) and the June ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 61.1).  As has been the case, markets will want “Goldilocks” data to start the quarter, in that the numbers show solid activity, but nothing that would make the Fed taper more aggressively.  There’s also one Fed speaker, Bostic at 2:00 p.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

 

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today

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Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on June 28, 2021

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Virgin Galactic Soars, Wix Falls, and Stocks Are Wavering

If their comments are more hawkish than expected it will be a…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

What’s the State of Infrastructure?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s the State of Infrastructure?

Stock futures are little changed near all-time highs in quiet trading this morning as concerns about the “Delta” variant of COVID-19 linger while investors look ahead to fresh economic data in the U.S.

Economically, Japanese Unemployment edged up to 3.0% in May from 2.8% in April but Retail Sales topped estimates while Eurozone June Economic Sentiment met expectations.

Looking into today’s session, there are two reports on real estate prices due this morning: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.2%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.0%), before the more important release on Consumer Confidence (E: 118.8) is due out shortly after the bell.

There is also one Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET) but as long as there is not a notable hawkish shift in tone, the commentary should not impact stocks.

That will leave investors focused on any news or developments regarding the “Delta” variant of COVID-19, specifically if any government imposes new lockdowns as a result and infrastructure negotiations.

Four Pillars of the Rally Remain Intact

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line – Four Pillars of the Rally Remain Intact
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Flash PMIs and Core PCE in Focus

Stock futures are trading cautiously higher this morning while international equities were mixed overnight as markets attempt to stabilize following last week’s volatile, Fed-induced declines.

News flow was quiet over the weekend as there were no major economic releases or central bank developments however the yield curve remains in focus as several key spreads have flattened to multi-month lows on hawkish policy expectations and a more cautious growth outlook.

There are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.

The lack of market catalysts will leave investors to continue to digest last week’s Fed developments and closely monitor the bond markets for further clues on expectations for both monetary policy and the state of the economic recovery.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on June 16, 2021

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Dish Network Is Gaining, GM Is Jumping and the Stock Market Has Stalled Ahead of the Fed

Stock futures are flat this morning as a sense of Fed paralysis grips global markets ahead of…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.