Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, says investors have a clear playbook for Wuhan.
“From a market standpoint, since this disease is closely related to SARS, I think the market…” Essaye says. Click here to read the full article.
Between the lines: That likely paints the Fed into a corner in addressing the program at its meeting tomorrow, Tom Essaye, director of Sevens Report Research, says in a note.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply lower as concerns about the economic fallout from the Wuhan coronavirus continue to mount.
The spread of the Wuhan virus isn’t accelerating, but markets becoming more concerned about future earnings and economic growth as companies implement work stoppages to reduce the chance of the disease spreading.
Today there is a Bank of England rate decision and while the official market expectation is for no change, don’t be shocked if there’s a 25 bps rate cut. Outside of the BOE, we also get the first look at Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K).
On the earnings front, today is really the last “big” day of earnings, and the clear highlight is AMZN ($3.98) after the close, followed by: V ($1.46), KO ($0.43), UPS ($2.10), VZ ($1.15), MO ($1.01).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher this morning as the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread but other market influences including key earnings and the Fed are coming into focus.
Reports show that the number of coronavirus cases has climbed to more than 4,500 and the death toll has topped 100 in China however the mortality rate encouragingly remains ~2%, well below the 10% rate of SARS in the early 2000s.
The number of market catalysts picks up today starting with three economic data points to watch: Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%) being the key report to watch while the S&P Case-Shiller HPI (0.4%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 127.8) will also be released.
Additionally, the January FOMC Meeting begins and earnings season remains in full swing. The key report to watch today is AAPL ($4.54) after the closing bell but other notables include: LMT ($4.99), MMM ($2.10), PFE ($0.57), UTX ($1.84), AMD ($0.31), and EBAY ($0.75).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are down more than 1% as the continued spread of the Wuhan coronavirus over the weekend further raised fears of a global economic slowdown.
Total cases of the Wuhan virus continued to rise over the weekend (nearly 3000 confirmed cases globally) and the number of U.S. cases rose to five.
Economically, German IFO Business Expectations missed estimates at 92.9 vs. (E) 95.0.
This is going to be a very busy week, but the calendar is a bit sparse today as we get just one economic report, New Home Sales (E: 728k), and one notable earnings report after the close: WHR ($4.30). So, any updates on the spread of the Wuhan virus will continue to drive markets today, although that will change later in the week as we get more earnings and the Fed decision on Wednesday.
According to Sevens Report, the two factors that could reverse the upward trajectory of valuations would be stalling economic growth and higher interest rates. Until those occur, the rally is expected to shoot up to “20 times earnings, which equates to about 3,500 in the…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P 500 futures rallied to new record highs overnight amid easing concerns over the deadly virus outbreak in China that weighed on risk assets Tuesday.
Chinese health officials announced plans to both screen for, and contain the Wuhan coronavirus which helped reduce fears that a SARS-like epidemic is developing.
Today, there are a few different potential catalysts for the market that warrant watching. First, there are two economic reports on the housing market: FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%) and Existing Home Sales (E: 5.430M) which should show a continued rebound in the sector into the end of 2019.
Second, earnings season is in full swing and investors will continue to sift through the releases closely. Notable corporations reporting today include: JNJ ($1.87), ABT ($0.95), ALLY ($0.95), TXN ($1.02), KMI ($0.26), LVS ($0.80), and RJF ($1.90).
Lastly, any new developments on the spread, or containment of, the Wuhan coronavirus will likely get a reaction from markets as it was the primary focus of traders across asset classes yesterday.
“This rally now has a life of its own. I do want to caution that any pullback that occurs (and there will be one) likely will be a bit more painful than before and on the order of 5% to 10%, given how stretched the market has become…” writes Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures and European shares are tracking Asian markets lower amid rising concerns about the outbreak of a newly discovered virus in China.
Chinese health officials have confirmed that the recently named “coronavirus” can be spread by human-to-human contact.
And with the Lunar New Year holiday beginning this week, fears of a SARS-like health epidemic are on the rise which saw the Shanghai Composite fall 1.41% overnight.
Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports due to be released and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
That will leave investors largely focused on Q4 earnings season with HAL ($0.29) reporting before the bell and NFLX ($0.50), AMTD ($0.76), UAL ($2.64), and COF ($2.38) all releasing results after the close.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher again after Chinese economic data beat expectations.
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (5.4% vs. (E ) 5.2%, Industrial Production (6.9% vs. (E ) 5.9%, and Retail Sales (8.0% vs. (E ) 7.8%) all beat estimates, raising hopes for a global economic rebound.
Today focus will again be on economic data and earnings, and like yesterday, the stronger the data, the better. Industrial Production (E: -0.3%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 99.3) are the two key reports today, while we also get Housing Starts (E: 1.373M).
On the earnings front, industrial results have been mixed this week so the market will want to see solid results from SLB ($0.37), FAST ($0.31) and JBHT ($1.55).
Finally, there are two Fed Speakers today: Harker (9:00 a.m. ET) and Quarles (12:45 p.m. ET), but neither should move markets.