Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on June 29, 2020
Tom Essaye – Sevens Report Founder and President weighs on on current market moves with Adam Shapiro and Julie Hyman on Yahoo Finance’s On The Move. Click here to watch the full interview.
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Can Stocks Go Down Anymore?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- “Can Stocks Go Down Anymore?”
- Weekly Economic Preview
Futures are higher this morning suggesting that U.S. equities will extend last week’s rally and rise in sympathy with global shares today as investors look ahead to earnings season while coronavirus cases continue to surge globally.
New COVID-19 cases continued to rise sharply over the weekend (Florida set a record with more than 15,000 new cases in a single day Saturday) but the death rate importantly remains low which is allowing the market to largely shrug off the spike.
PEP ($1.25) unofficially kicks off earnings season today while major banks including JPM, C, and WFC are due to report their earnings tomorrow which will be one of the more important market catalysts of the week ahead.
Looking into today’s session, things are lining up to be relatively quiet as there are no economic reports and investors will hear from just two Fed officials: Williams (11:30 a.m. ET) and Kaplan (1:00 p.m. ET).
Market Multiple Table July Update
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Market Multiple Table July Update
Stock futures are little changed today as investors digest the choppy trade from the front half of the week amid negative coronavirus headlines, ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China, but still mostly upbeat economic data.
Johns Hopkins University reported a new single day record increase of +60K new coronavirus cases in the U.S. yesterday which is weighing on sentiment this morning.
There were no market moving economic reports overnight and no new data is scheduled to be released in the U.S. today.
One Fed official will speak this afternoon: Bostic (12:15 p.m. ET) however investor focus will largely remain on the trends of the coronavirus outbreak and any new indication as to whether or not there will be another round of economic shutdowns which would be a clear negative for risk assets at current levels.
Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on June 30, 2020
Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Research Founder, joins Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre to discuss the latest market action. Click here to watch the full interview.
Why Surging Coronavirus Cases Aren’t Causing a Selloff
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Why Surging Coronavirus Cases Aren’t Causing a Selloff
- Technical Take: S&P 500
Stock futures are trading higher with international shares as conflicting trade war headlines continue to be digested while economic data was mostly encouraging overnight.
White House trade advisor, Peter Navarro, said late Monday that the U.S.-China trade deal was “over,” but his comments were contradicted by a Trump tweet saying the deal was “intact,” which saw risk-off money flows reverse o/n.
Global Composite Flash PMIs largely topped expectations overnight, bolstering hopes that a swift economic recovery is underway.
Today, investor focus will be on economic data early as the U.S. Composite PMI Flash (E: 45.0) and New Home Sales (E: 630K) are both due out shortly after the opening bell.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 2-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact the yield curve and ultimately move the equity markets in the afternoon.
Aside from those potential catalysts, any further developments regarding the trade war or coronavirus infection rates will be closely watched as the market continues to look for direction with the S&P being tightly rangebound for the last week.
Tom Essaye Intereviewed with Yahoo Finance on June 18, 2020
“I’m getting concerned that the market is under-appreciating the risk that Trump loses,” said veteran trader and founder of Sevens Report Research Tom Essaye on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. Click here to watch the full interview.
New S&P 500 Measured Move Targets
What’s in Today’s Report:
- New S&P 500 Measured Move Targets
Futures are solidly higher following a generally quiet night as markets again try to extend this week’s rally.
Economically, British Retail Sales were much stronger than expected, rising 12% vs (E) 6.5% and adding to the better than expected data this week.
New daily coronavirus cases continued to increase in the U.S., but markets for now continue to look past the recent uptick.
Today there are no notable economic reports, although there are multiple Fed speakers including: Powell (1:00 p.m. ET), Rosengren (10:15 a.m. ET), Quarles (12:00 p.m. ET), Mester (1:00 p.m. ET). But, given Powell’s testimony earlier this week, it’s unlikely any of the Fed officials say anything to materially move markets.
Finally, today is a “quad witch” quarterly options expiration, so we should expect big volumes and an uptick in volatility into the close.
The Four Phases of Fiscal Stimulus Explained
What’s in Today’s Report:
- The Four Phases of Fiscal Stimulus Explained
- Weekly EIA Data Analysis and Oil Update
Stock futures are slightly lower this morning following a risk-off night of trade thanks to ongoing concerns about rising COVID-19 infections in the U.S., Europe, and China.
There were no market moving economic reports overnight however the 7-day moving average of daily new cases of coronavirus in the U.S. reached a one-month high yesterday which is pressuring risk assets this morning.
It is lining up to be a busy morning as the BOE Meeting Announcement will hit at the top of the 7 o’clock hour (ET), before U.S. economic data kicks off at 8:30 a.m. ET with: Jobless Claims (E: 1.220M) and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: -22.7), and then after the bell, Leading Indicators (E: 1.7%) will be released.
There are also three Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Kashkari (E: 11:00 p.m. ET), Mester (12:15 p.m. ET), and Daly (7:00 p.m. ET) but investors have been largely focused on coronavirus headlines over the last 12-18 hours so any fresh developments on testing, new case trends, or treatments will likely move markets.
Are There New Tailwinds for Stocks?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Are There New Tailwinds for Stocks?
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet
U.S. equity futures are trading higher with global markets today amid investor optimism for reopenings and reports of further progress on COVID-19 treatments/vaccines.
Novavax was the latest company to begin human testing for its coronavirus vaccine over the weekend which is helping drive risk-on money flows this morning.
Today, there are several economic reports due to be released: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.6%), Consumer Confidence (E: 88.3), and New Home Sales (E: 495K).
Additionally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak: Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr T-Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Beyond those potential catalysts, investor focus will remain on the economic reopening process around the globe and any additional information regarding potential COVID-19 vaccines or treatments.
Technical Update: Headwinds Building?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Technical Update: Headwinds Building?
Futures are modestly lower following mixed Chinese economic data as markets digest Thursday’s rebound.
Chinese economic data was mixed but not worse than feared, as Industrial Production beat estimates (3.9% vs. (E) 1.5%) while Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment both declined sharply (-7.5% and –3.8% respectively) but no worse than expected. In sum the data was “good enough” to keep hope alive that the U.S. economy can see a substantial economic rebound in the coming months, assuming no “second wave” of virus infections.
Today will be an important day for economic data, and the reports we’re watching today (in order of importance) are: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (E: -65.0), Retail Sales (E: -11.2%), Consumer Sentiment (E: 66.0), Industrial Production (E: -11.5%), and JOLTS (E: 5.900MM).
Empire Manufacturing Report and Consumer Sentiment are May reports, so markets will want to see hints of improvement to confirm the economic “worst” will soon be behind us. If that happens, stocks can hold Thursday’s gains.