By making borrowing more expensive and thereby tempering demand, rate increases are critical in combating inflation, but “growing fears” that the hikes will spur a recession by undercutting economic growth are the “driving forces” behind recent market weakness, says analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher following a solid night of earnings.
AAPL (up 2%) and AMZN (up 12%) both beat estimates and that’s helping to extend this week’s rally.
Eurozone inflation came in slightly hotter than expected, as EU HICP rose 8.9% yoy vs. (E ) 8.8% yoy, but stronger than expected earnings are helping the market look past the slightly hot number.
Today the focus will be on inflation as we get three notable inflation readings: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.7% y/y), Employment Cost Index (E: 1.1%), and the University of Michigan Five Year Inflation Expectations (E: 2.8%). Markets have aggressively priced in a near term peak in inflation, and the data needs to start to confirm that, starting today. If these inflation stats run hot, don’t be surprised to see stocks decline.
On the earnings front, the season is starting to wind down but there are still a few more days of notable results. Some reports we’re watching today include: XOM ($3.80), CVX ($5.02), PG ($1.23) and CL ($0.71).
The market looks at that, and basically, the logic is, ‘oh crap, if they’re doing this then what about the ones aren’t as strong?’ And what are they seeing coming that everyone else isn’t…said Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
You’ve seen a relief rally, the Fed maybe being slightly less hawkish than you think is the hope…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher as markets bounce from Friday’s declines, following a quiet weekend and as investors look forward to numerous important catalysts this week.
Chinese authorities are considering some restrictions on movement in Shanghai as COVID cases rise, but are still resisting broad lockdowns (for now).
Economically, German Ifo Business Expectations declined further (80.3 vs. (E) 83.3).
Today there’s only one notable economic report, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: 0.05), and markets will want to see stability here following last week’s disappointing data. If this number is surprisingly weak (like the PMIs last Thursday/Friday) then that will likely weigh on stocks as recession fears grow.
Earnings season continues and this will be a very busy and important week for results. Some earnings we’ll be watching today include: WHR ($5.22), NXPI ($3.39), and LOGI ($3.39).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stocks are resilient this morning as futures are only slightly lower despite disappointing overnight earnings and ugly economic reports from Europe.
Earnings overnight were bad with several ugly reports including SNAP (-30%), COF (-3.5%), and STX (-13%).
Economically, July flash PMIs from the EU were also ugly as the composite PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.6 vs. (E) 51.0.
Hope that inflation has peaked is the reason stocks are resilient lately, so today’s focus will be on the July Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.8) and the July Flash Services PMI (E: 52.3). If these reports show meaningful drops in the price indices (like we’ve seen in the Empire and Philly Fed surveys) then that will further the idea that inflation is peaking and support stocks (as long as the headline readings aren’t huge misses).
On the earnings front, results to watch today include TWTR (-$0.06), VZ $1.34), and AXP ($2.37).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are higher this morning despite soft earnings from IBM after the close yesterday as European inflation data was not as bad as feared in June.
Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates with a rise of 8.6% Y/Y in June up from 8.1% in May, however, the core figure slipped to 3.7% Y/Y from 3.8% in May. The release has prompted new bets for a 50 bp hike from the ECB this week, but that is bolstering hopes that peak inflation will come sooner than later.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.588) and after yesterday’s terrible Housing Market Index print, investors will want to see a number more in line with expectations that does not point to such a rapid deterioration in the real estate market.
There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today which will leave traders largely focused on earnings with: JNJ ($2.57), HAL ($0.45), LMT ($6.29), ALLY ($1.90), and TFC ($1.17) reporting before the bell, and NFLX ($2.90) and JBHT ($2.31) releasing results after the close.
Bottom line, the broader equity market remains at a key tipping point right now as recession fears continue to simmer, but earnings have so far been mostly upbeat suggesting there is still a path to a soft landing. And if earnings news is upbeat today, we could see the S&P 500 breakout through key downtrend resistance near 3,890 and make a run at new multi-week highs.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a generally quiet weekend.
Investors continue to hope for a near-term peak in inflation and Friday’s drop in University of Michigan inflation expectations (2.8% vs. (E) 3.0%) and multi-month lows in the Empire Manufacturing price indices fueled that hope and resulted in the rally on Friday and in futures this morning.
Today’s focus will shift to earnings, and they will dominate market action early this week as there are no Fed speakers and no market-moving economic reports till later this week. If earnings are better than feared, they can help extend this rally in the near term while disappointing results will cause more volatility. Some reports we’re watching today include BAC ($ 0.77), GS ($6.99), SCHW ($0.91), IBM ($ 2.29).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher on momentum from yesterday’s recovery and despite mixed Chinese economic data.
Chinese Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment both slightly missed estimates while Retail Sales beat expectations, but importantly the data didn’t show the Chinese economy had lost significant momentum.
Today there are numerous economic reports and some of them potentially will move markets. The most important report today is 5-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.1% previous) and if they drop to 3.0% or lower that will be a good sign on inflation. Retail Sales (E: 0.9%) and Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -1.3) are the next most important reports today and again markets will want to see moderation – a slowing of activity but not a collapse. Finally, we also get Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 50.0).
We also have one Fed speaker today, Bostic (8:45 a.m. ET), and we’d expect him to follow yesterday’s script and push back on the inevitability of a 100 basis point hike (although acknowledge that anything’s possible depending on the data).
This would likely spark a move higher in stocks, allowing the relief rally to continue, since waning inflation pressures might allow the Federal Reserve to potentially pause its interest rate hikes later this year…Tom Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.
