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Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel.

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Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

360 Round: Holiday Travel

Robby Silk and Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel. They both expect record air travel, with Airlines for America forecasting 54M flyers between Dec. 19-Jan. 6. Tom says it’s “not surprising” that travel remains strong, but notes that the industry has shrunk substantially over the last 20 years with mergers and bankruptcies.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on December 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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This Is The Type Of Political Chaos Markets Fear

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This Is The Type Of Political Chaos Markets Fear: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Magnificent 7 Stocks Are Rising to End a Rough Week

Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, wrote on Friday that stocks weren’t down “because of the shutdown itself, but instead because this is the type of political chaos markets fear in a second Trump term.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on December 20th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The Fed Provided A Legitimate Surprise

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The Fed Provided A Legitimate Surprise: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Stock Market Needed a Washout. What Sentiment Says About What Comes Next.

The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye notes that two things in particular caught investors offside. First, the shift to fewer rate cuts in 2025 means that the Fed will be less of a force for good in the market than it was heading into the meeting. The language of the statement also changed in a way that suggested rate cuts could be off the table completely next year. “Bottom line, the Fed provided a legitimate surprise,” he writes.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on December 20th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Markets Closed Tomorrow)

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Jobs Report Preview (Markets Closed Tomorrow): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways – Strong Data Supports Hawkish Fed Stance
  • Chart – JOLTS Jump to Multi-Month High But Still Trending Lower

Futures were slightly higher earlier this morning as traders digested disappointing data out of Europe but volatility has picked up since CNN reported that Trump is weighing emergency measures to implement new tariffs programs.

Economically, German Manufacturing Orders plunged -5.4% vs. (E) 0.0% while EU Economic Sentiment fell 93.7 vs. (E) 95.7 and Eurozone PPI declined just -1.2% vs. (E) -2.5%.

Today, traders are likely to remain keenly focused on the early tariff headlines that have roiled futures in the pre-market. Any commentary from Trump that tamps down concerns about aggressive tariffs and the threat of global trade wars will help settle markets over the course of the day.

Additionally, there are two key labor market reports to watch today, the ADP Employment Report (E: 134K), and Jobless Claims (E: 216K). After yesterday’s “hot” ISM and JOLTS data, investors will want to see a return to “Goldilocks” data consistent with a cooling labor market to help temper the recent spike in yields and help stocks stabilize.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker early in the day: Waller (8:30 a.m. ET) and a 30-Yr Treasury Bond auction in the early afternoon (1:00 p.m. ET) that cold move yields, and in turn, impact equity markets (strong demand for the long bonds is the best outcome for stocks).

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What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts)
  • S&P Services PMI Takeaways – Slightly Hawkish

Futures are little changed this morning as global investors digest the solid rebound in stocks over the last two sessions amid largely as-expected economic data overnight.

Economically, Eurozone CPI met estimates with a 0.2% rise to 2.4% Y/Y in December while the EU Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.3%, also inline with expectations.

Today, market focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-77.6B), ISM Services PMI (E: 53.2), and JOLTS (E: 7.65 million) all due to be released this morning. The ISM report will be critical as a “hot” print is a risk to the early 2025 rally as it will support the case for a Fed “pause” in their rate cutting cycle and put upward pressure on yields.

There is also one Fed speaker who could shed light on FOMC policy plans (although that is not very likely): Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and the results will be important to watch as yesterday’s weak 3-Yr Note auction contributed to the afternoon rise in yields that weighed on stocks. So, the best-case scenario outcome for stocks is a solid auction that turns yields lower, ideally with the 10-Yr yield falling back below 4.60%.

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Are Credit Spreads Confirming Stock Market Weakness?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Credit Spreads Confirming Stock Market Weakness?

Futures are slightly higher and are seeing a modest bounce following a generally quiet night of news.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was German Unemployment, which met expectations at 6.1%.

Politically, the House of Representatives will vote on a Speaker today and if Speaker Johnson fails to quickly win that election, it’ll be a market negative as it will raise doubts Republicans can actually pass tax cuts later in 2025.

Today is an important day for markets from a political perspective, it’s also important from an economic standpoint as we get the first of the “Big Three” monthly economic reports via the December ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.5).  Markets will want to see that number in-line to slightly lower, as a much better than expected number will likely see a repeat of yesterday, as the dollar and yields should rise and this early rally in stocks should fade as investors reduce expectations for future rate cuts.  Goldilocks data is needed for this stock market dip to end.

Speaking of the Fed, we get our first two speakers of 2025 in Barkin (11:00 a.m. ET), and Daly (5:30 p.m. ET) although they shouldn’t move markets.

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Five Important Events to Watch As We Start 2025

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Five Important Events to Watch As We Start 2025
  • The Sevens Report Q4 Quarterly Letter Will Be Delivered to Subscribers Today

Futures are moderately higher to start the new year despite disappointing global economic data.

Manufacturing PMIs from China, the EU and the UK all missed expectations, highlighting the disparity between solid U.S. growth and lackluster global growth.

The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.5 vs. (E) 51.7, the Euro Zone reading slipped to 45.1 vs. (E) 45.2 while the UK version dropped to 47.0 vs. (E) 47.3.

Today focus turns back to economic data and as was the case at the end of 2024, markets need in-line to slightly soft economic readings to keep Fed rate cut and soft landing expectations stable.  Today, that means Jobless Claims near their 225k estimate (and not too much lower) and the S&P Final Manufacturing PMI in-line with estimates (E: 48.3).

 

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today

Our Q4 ’24 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you 1) Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter) and 2) Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis

You can view our Q3 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are H-1B Visas the Reason for this Pullback?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are H-1B Visas the Reason for this Pullback?

U.S. equity futures are bouncing back from yesterday’s losses in light holiday trading as investors square books into year-end and digest mixed Chinese economic data.

China’s Composite PMI rose 1.4 points to 52.2 in December thanks to the Services PMI rising to 52.2 vs. (E) 50.2 but the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.1 vs. (E) 50.3.

There are two housing market reports today: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.5%) but neither release should materially move markets and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today.

The limited list of catalysts should make for a quiet session to end what has been a strong year of gains in the stock market as portfolio rebalancing and year-end book-squaring are likely to be the primary drivers of money flows today.

As a reminder, stocks will trade for a full, normal session through 4:00 p.m. ET but the bond market closes early today (2:00 p.m. ET).

 

Last Day to Use Your 2024 Research Budget to Extend Subscriptions or Save Money on an Annual Subscription or Bundle!

Throughout December, we’ve been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2024 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you want to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report product), please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025

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A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on Politics (Does Johnson Get Re-elected as Speaker?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Another Slow Week But Important Reports Thursday and Friday

Futures are slightly weaker following a mostly quiet weekend of news and ahead of another holiday shortened trading week.

Economically, the only notable report was Spanish CPI, which came in hotter than expected at 2.8% y/y vs. (E) 2.6% y/y, reinforcing some fears of sticky inflation.

Politically, the first major event for the new U.S. Congress comes this Friday via the Speaker of the House election (markets will want to see current Speaker Johson re-elected).

Given the mid-week holiday this week is another relatively quiet one on the data front but there are some notable reports to watch today including Chicago PMI (E: 42.7), Pending Home Sales (E: 0.7%).  As is the case for the foreseeable future, anything Goldilocks (so in-line to slightly softer) is the preferred outcome for markets.

 

Sevens Report Q4 ’24 Quarterly Letter Coming Thursday. 

We can help you improve your client communication with little-to-no effort from you!

I am currently finishing the Q4 2024 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter and it will be delivered Thursday, January 2nd.

2024 was a great year, but there is a lot of uncertainty looming for markets in 2025, from politics, the Fed, economic growth and earnings.

Don’t let your clients get blindsided by negative events!

You can view our Q3 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Was Last Week A Preview of 2025?

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Was Last Week A Preview of 2025?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Last Week A Preview of 2025?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can the Santa Rally Re-start?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A Quiet Week, But Claims Thursday Matter

Futures are slightly weaker following a quiet weekend of news and ahead of the holiday-shortened trading week.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was UK GDP which was slightly weaker than expected, rising 0.9% vs. (E) 1.0%.

Politically, a U.S. government shutdown was averted as Congress passed a bill to fund the government but only through March, which adds complication to Republican plans to pass aggressive pro-growth legislation.

Today the only notable economic report is Consumer Confidence (E: 113.0) and barring a major surprise, it shouldn’t move markets.

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