Posts

Optimism regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas had been building

/in , /by

Optimism regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas had been building: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil pares gains as Hamas reportedly accepts cease-fire plan, Israel warns of Rafah invasion

“Optimism regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas had been building over the last week or so, and that was reflected in last week’s steep drop in oil futures price,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

The reason the oil market didn’t see more of a selloff Monday in the wake of the news that Hamas has accepted the cease-fire proposal is that “it was largely already priced in,” said Richey.

Also, “despite the progress in negotiations, military action is continuing on with reports of 50 Israeli air strikes in Rafah today alone -and that is keeping speculative shorts on their toes as we start the new week,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on May 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Are The GRANOLAS and Why Are They Attractive?

/in , /by

What Are The GRANOLAS and Why Are They Attractive? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Are The GRANOLAS and Why Are They Attractive?
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly weaker following a quiet night of news as investors digest the last weeks’ gains.

Economically, Chinese exports (1.5% vs. (E) 1.3%) and imports (8.4% vs. (E) 4.7%) were stronger than expected, offering some optimism for that economy.

Tech earnings continued to be mixed as semiconductor company ARM Holdings (ARM) posted soft guidance and the stock is down 8% pre-market.

Today focus initially will be on the BOE Rate Decision, as no rate cut is expected but the BOE may signal a rate cut is coming in June.  In the U.S., the only notable number is Jobless Claims (E: 212K) and there’s just one Fed speaker today (Daly at 2:00 p.m. ET) and it’ll take a significant surprise from either event to move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

An S&P 500 Priced for Perfection: May MMT Chart

/in , /by

An S&P 500 Priced for Perfection: May MMT Chart: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • May MMT Chart: An S&P 500 Priced for Perfection
  • Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Raises Questions About Growth

Futures are flat as disappointing earnings in Asia (Toyota and Nintendo) were largely offset by solid guidance from AB InBev and Siemens Energy in Europe while macroeconomic news wires were relatively quiet.

Economically, exports from Taiwan plunged to 4.3% y/y in April from 18.9% in March due to weak Chinese demand but exports to the U.S. hit a record amid strong AI demand. The soft Chinese demand is a concern, but AI optimism is for now offsetting those worries.

There are no notable economic reports today leaving focus on the Fed speaker circuit with Jefferson (11:00 a.m. ET), Collins (11:45 a.m. ET) and Cook (1:30 p.m. ET) all scheduled to speak.

Additionally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s 3-Yr Note auction saw decent demand but if today’s longer duration Note auction is soft, that will put upward pressure on yields and weigh on equity markets as this relief rally has begun to lose momentum.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

May MMT Update: Less Bad News Is Not Good

/in , /by

May MMT Update: Less Bad News Is Not Good: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • May Market Multiple Table Update: Don’t Confuse Less-Bad News for Actual Good News

Futures are little changed this morning as favorable EU economic data and strong bank earnings from UBS and UniCredit offset escalating geopolitical tensions in Gaza.

Geopolitically, Israeli tank units seized a critical Rafah border crossing with Egypt as ceasefire talks reportedly continue, however the market impact is limited this morning with oil futures slightly lower.

Economically, UK’s Construction PMI topped estimates (53.0 vs. E: 51.1) and EU Retail Sales rose 0.8% vs. (E) 0.7% helping ease worries about fading economic growth in Europe.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on the Fed’s Kashkari who speaks mid-morning (11:30 a.m. ET). The market is looking for more confirmation of sooner-than-later rate hikes in 2024.

Then this afternoon, there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will be closely watched by bond traders to see how well the larger than expected Q2 bond issuance will be absorbed by the market. A tailing auction that sends yields higher will be negative for stocks.

Finally, there is just one economic report this afternoon: Consumer Credit ($15.5B) and two earnings reports to watch: DIS ($1.11), LYFT ($0.02).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates

/in , /by

Markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates: Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Editor, Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

This is the big question markets have for Fed’s Jerome Powell, BlackRock says

“Since the start of the year, markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note on Tuesday. “Remember, in January the market expected six rate cuts starting in March.”

Stocks and bonds haven’t been hit harder by the recent shift in those expectations because “the market still expects the next move from the Fed to be a cut,” Essaye said. A reiteration of that message by Powell on Wednesday could help stop the S&P 500’s recent slide, he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published by MSN on May 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Earnings in those tech companies are really important

/in , /by

Earnings in those tech companies are really important: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Mixed Ahead of Fed Decision

“Bottom line, there are a lot of potential catalysts for markets today but the key to stocks stabilizing will be economic data that contradicts recent signs of stagflation emerging in the economy and a benign Fed day with an as-expected dovish announcement and no surprises from Chair Powell,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “Otherwise, we could easily see a test or breakdown through the April lows in the S&P 500 today.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye Quoted by Barron’s in a Phone Interview

/in , /by

Price pressures are firming up: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Dow Drops 300 Points. Price Pressures Are Firming Up.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s in a phone interview that hotter-than-expected employment cost and home price data spooked markets after a couple strong days.

“What I think that’s doing is reminding everybody, after a couple of days of a breather, that there’s really a long and growing list of indicators that are showing price pressures are firming up,” Essaye says.

He notes that while inflation is not roaring back, the numbers have remained elevated enough to increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve keeps rates higher for longer.

“If he says, ‘Look, this is very disappointing and we may have to consider hiking rates again,’ which I don’t think he will do, but if he does do that, then it’s going to hit the markets really hard,” Essaye says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why the Outlook For Stocks Got Worse Last Week (Not Better)

/in , /by

Why the Outlook For Stocks Got Worse Last Week (Not Better): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Outlook For Stocks Got Worse Last Week (Not Better)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Fed Officials and the BOE Increase Rate Cut Hopes?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  A Quiet Week but Friday’s Inflation Expectations Will Be Important

Futures are extending the gains from Friday’s Goldilocks jobs report despite a potential increase in geo-political tensions this week.

Oil prices are rallying moderately following the breakdown of Israel/Hamas cease fire talks and an Israeli military operation in Rafah is likely.

Economically, the Euro Zone services PMI beat estimates at 53.5 vs. (E) 52.9, pushing back on EU recession risks.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are two Fed speakers, Barkin (12:50 p.m. ET) and Williams (1:00 p.m. ET).  If either of them sound more open to rate hikes than Powell did last week, it’ll likely push yields higher and take back some of last week’s post-Fed rally.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Flash of Fear: FOMC Technical Preview

/in , /by

A Flash of Fear: FOMC Technical Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Technical Preview – A Flash of Fear in the Market (Shareable PDF By Request)
  • More Hot Inflation Data: Employment Cost Index and Case Shiller/FHFA Home Price Indices
  • Chart: Stagflation Concerns Bring Focus Back to the Yield Curve

Futures are lower as stagflation fears continue to weigh on risk assets while earnings were mixed overnight with AMZN reporting strong quarterly cloud sales (the stock is up 2%+) while AMD’s AI-chip demand forecast disappointed (the stock is down 6%+).

Economically, the U.K.’s April Manufacturing PMI was better than feared, rising to 49.1 vs. (E) 48.7 which is helping the FTSE buck the heavy trend across global equity markets this morning.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Private Payrolls (E: 175K), ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 50.0), Construction Spending (E: 0.3%), and JOLTS (E: 8.7 million) all due to be released by 10 a.m. ET.

Additionally, the Treasury Refunding Announcement (8:30 a.m. ET) for which estimates sparked some volatility earlier in the week, could move bond markets and subsequently impact equities in the pre-market.

In the afternoon, focus will turn to the Fed with the FOMC Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Earnings season takes a breather today before AAPL and other tech companies report tomorrow but there are still a few notables to monitor today including: MA ($3.22), CVS ($1.69), QCOM ($2.31).

Bottom line, there are a lot of potential catalysts for markets today but the key to stocks stabilizing will be economic data that contradicts recent signs of stagflation emerging in the economy and a benign Fed day with an as-expected to dovish announcement and no surprises from Chair Powell. Otherwise, we could easily see a test or breakdown through the April lows in the S&P 500 today.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Threat of More Rate Hikes? (FOMC Preview)

/in , /by

Threat of More Rate Hikes? (FOMC Preview): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – The Fed Could Threaten Rate Hikes
  • Chart – S&P 500: Support, Resistance, and a Downside Target of 4,785
  • BOJ Yen Intervention Update: Not a Market Negative Yet

Futures are lower following mixed international economic data overnight while solid earnings by Samsung Electronics is helping offset negative earnings from European car makers.

In Asia, Chinese PMI data and Australian Retail Sales were net negative, but Eurozone core inflation favorably cooled and GDP firmed easing stagflation worries in Europe.

Today, the busy week of economic data begins with the Employment Cost Index (E: 0.9% q/q), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.1%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 104.0) as the Fed meeting gets underway.

Earnings season also remains in full swing with PYPL ($1.24), MCD ($2.70), MMM ($2.08), and KO ($0.69) reporting before the bell and AMZN ($0.81), AMD ($0.61), and SMCI ($5.79) releasing results after the bell.

Bottom line, being the end of the month and the start of the Fed meeting, trader positioning should keep markets relatively quiet today as tomorrow’s FOMC decision looms, but if any of the data comes in “too hot” or “too cold,” expect an uptick in volatility.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.