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I don’t think the market is really doubting the whole AI story

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I don’t think the market is really doubting the whole AI story: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Nvidia and Other Chip Stocks Are Leading the Market Lower Ahead of Big Tech Earnings

“I don’t think the market is really doubting the whole AI story at this point,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “But I do think there are extremely high growth expectations. And if those growth expectations disappoint, even a little bit, then you’ll see some punishment. And that’s really what’s been going on in the earnings season.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on July 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Technical Levels to Watch Today and Jobs Report Preview

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Technical Levels to Watch Today and Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Levels to Watch in the Wake of the Fed
  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are solidly higher in pre-market trade with tech and AI-focused names leading after solid AMD earnings (stock up 9%) offset mildly disappointing results from MSFT (stock down 3%) while economic data was solid overnight and investors digest the BOJ’s decision to raise rates to the highest level since 2008.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 154K), Employment Cost Index (E: 1.0%), and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.1%) all due to be released. Healthy employment and steady wage growth numbers will be critical to see for the soft landing narrative to persist.

From there, focus will turn to the Fed with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Earnings season also continues today with BA (-$1.68) and MA ($3.51) reporting before the open and META ($4.69), QCOM ($2.25), ALL ($0.33), and EBAY ($1.12) all due to release results after the close.

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This week is very important for AI and tech

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This week is very important for AI and tech: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Apple Falls, Microsoft and Other Tech Stocks Rise. Earnings Week Is All About AI.

“This week is very important for AI and tech because MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, and META, all AI darlings, report earnings and if they post disappointing guidance, it will further erode AI enthusiasm and we could see this pullback continue,” Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye wrote on Monday.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on July 29th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview

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FOMC Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Chart: Stocks Are Trading With an 85% Correlation to 2007

U.S. equity futures are tracking European stocks higher as traders look ahead to the Fed, big-tech earnings, and more important economic data due in the sessions ahead.

Economically, Japan’s Unemployment Rate fell to 2.5% vs. (E) 2.6% while the EU’s GDP Flash rose to 0.6% vs. (E) 0.5%. The reports are not meaningfully moving markets but seem to be easing recession fears to some degree in pre-market trade.

Looking into today’s session, there are two housing market reports due out early: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 7.2%) and the FHFA House Price Index (E: 6.3%) before Consumer Confidence (E: 99.5) and JOLTS (E: 8.0 million) will be released after the opening bell.

The July FOMC meeting begins today so there are no Fed speakers which will likely bring a sense of “Fed paralysis” before tomorrow’s meeting announcement and Powell’s press conference.

That will leave trader focus on earnings with BP ($0.92), PG ($1.37) and PYPL ($0.97) all due to report before the open while AMD ($0.67), MSFT ($2.90), and SBUX ($0.93) will release results after the close.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Potentially Pivotal Week for the 2024 Bull Market

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A Potentially Pivotal Week for the 2024 Bull Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Potentially Pivotal Week for the 2024 Bull Market
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Important Updates on Growth, Rate Cuts and AI Enthusiasm
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday, Fed Wednesday.

Futures are solidly higher on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a mostly quiet weekend of news, as investors look ahead to an important week for economic growth, rate cut expectations and mega cap tech earnings.

Geopolitically, tensions increased between Israel and Hezbollah following an attack in the Golan Heights and subsequent Israeli retaliation, but for now it’s not moving oil markets.

This week will give us a lot of color on the state of economic growth and a check on market rate cut expectations, but the important events don’t start until tomorrow (MSFT & AMD earnings) as there are no notable economic reports today.

Looking deeper at earnings, about 40% of the S&P 500 reports this week, including several major mega-cap tech stocks, but those important reports don’t start until tomorrow.  Today, we’ll be watching: MCD (E: $3.08), ON (E: $0.92) and SFM (E: $0.77).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

None of this pullback includes growth worries

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None of this pullback includes growth worries: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Stock-market drop offers reminder that rate cuts can alarm investors too

So far, “none of this pullback includes growth worries, and that’s what we have to watch for to make this go from a pullback to something worse. I am still concerned about growth (and Dudley’s comments only make me more nervous) but the data over the past week has been ‘OK,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note. “That said, we still need to watch growth very closely…”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on July 25th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil futures appropriately popped in the wake of the release

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 Oil futures appropriately popped in the wake of the release: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices climb as U.S. data show crude supplies down a fourth straight week

Wednesday’s EIA report was “solid and oil futures appropriately popped in the wake of the release,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Still, the “trend of strong consumer demand has faltered in July,” underscored by the fact the four-week moving average of gasoline supplied remains about 30,000 barrels per day off the early July year-to-date highs, he told MarketWatch.

Going forward, the “energy bulls will want to see more evidence of strong and persistent consumer demand in order for oil to hold above key technical support at $76.50 because recession worries are on the rise and volatility is picking up, both of which are typically headwinds for the price of oil,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on July 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The ultimate direction of the S&P 500 will still be determined by economic growth

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The ultimate direction of the S&P 500 will still be determined by economic growth: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Stocks Slide As Major Tech Earnings Get Off To ‘Underwhelming’ Start

The U.S. will report its second-quarter gross domestic product Wednesday morning, offering a glimpse into how well the broader economy is performing. “The ultimate direction of the S&P 500 will still be determined by economic growth,” remarked Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye in a Monday note.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on July 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The oil market began the week with a thud

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The oil market began the week with a thud: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices finish lower, holding ground at lowest since mid-June

“The oil market began the week with a thud [Monday], failing to stabilize after the sharp losses in the back half of last week,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Richey said last week’s significant drop in implied gasoline demand reported by the Energy Information Administration remains a “major bearish influence on the market.”

Also, from a supply standpoint, improved prospects for a victory by former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election are “price-negative for oil,” given his plans to “support production increases to increase energy independence and lower prices,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on July 22nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Impact of Biden’s Decision

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Market Impact of Biden’s Decision: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Impact of Biden’s Decision to Drop Out
  • Putting Last Week’s Declines in Proper Context (What Tech Giveth, Tech Taketh Away)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does the Changing Political Landscape Pressure Markets?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The First Big National Report for July Comes This Week

Futures are solidly higher on surprise rate cuts from China and as President Biden dropped out of the Presidential election.

President Biden dropped out of the election this weekend and endorsed VP Harris as the new nominee and this should see a mild tightening of the polls.

Economically, China announced a surprise 10 bps interest rate cut and that’s helping to boost the economic outlook.

This week will be a busy one for earnings and economic data, but it starts slowly as there is just one notable economic report today, Chicago Fed National Activity (E: 0.18) and three notable earnings reports:  NXPI ($3.21),VZ ($1.15) and TFC ($0.78). NXPI is the most important earnings report today and if the semiconductor company can post strong guidance, it’ll help ease chip worries (which will help the tech sector and broader market stabilize).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.