“Oil has given back roughly half of the October gains this week thanks to the negative shift in policy and economic outlooks denting demand expectations,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
“With many analysts and economists now forecasting a recession as their base case outlook for 2023, demand estimates for everything from energy products to industrial metals are taking a hit,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“I don’t think there’s anything in here [minutes] that changes the outlook,” said Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher as markets digest Thursday’s rebound amidst more positive news from the UK.
Support for the Truss spending/tax cut plan has totally eroded and markets are hopeful the plan will be scrapped entirely, and that’s helping global bond yields fall.
Today there are two notable economic reports, Retail Sales (E: 0.2%) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 58.8), but the key for markets will be the inflation expectations within Consumer Sentiment and if the five-year inflation expectations fall further below 3.0%, that’ll be a positive for markets. We also get two Fed speakers, George (10:00 a.m. ET) and Cook (10:30 a.m. ET) but we don’t expect them to move markets.
Earnings season also unofficially starts today and key reports to watch include: JPM ($2.97), MS ($1.51), C ($1.55), WFC ($1.09), PNC ($3.66), USB ($1.17) and FRC ($2.19). If results are better than expected, that can extend Thursday’s rebound.
In the past, these “golden crosses” have preceded sharp downturns in stocks. One occurred in September 2008, just before stock-market volatility exploded in response to Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, according to Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report and a stock-market strategist who closely follows the Vix. Click here to read the full article.
“This just reinforces to the Fed that they have to stay the course, there’s nothing in this report that will make the Fed think: ‘Oh gee, we need to alter our plan.” said Tom Essaye, a trader and publisher of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
“The key to tomorrow’s jobs report will be whether it keeps the hopes for a Fed pivot alive. If the jobs report is ‘Too Hot’ that kills the idea of a Fed pivot, and we should expect the S&P 500 to drop back towards levels where we ended the third quarter,” Sevens Report analysts said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
Analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said investors will want to see such signs of easing demand—and a more rapid decline in inflation metrics—in order to continue the recent relief rally. Click here to read the full article.
“If U.S. Treasury yields have peaked near term along with the dollar, gold and silver can both extend gains and claw back some of the recent losses”, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
“If companies are more positive on the outlook than is currently expected (as happened with the Q2 earnings) then that will offset growing worries that earnings expectations are about to fall sharply,” Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye wrote. Click here to read the full article.
