Above 4,600 in the S&P 500, markets have now traded through most fundamental bounds of valuation, and for this rally to continue, we’ll need to see real, actual positive events (not just events that aren’t as bad as feared)…Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report said in a note to clients Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.
Above 4,600 in the S&P 500, markets have now traded through most fundamental bounds of valuation, and for this rally to continue, we’ll need to see real actual positive events…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
Instead, it’s a signal that the bull market’s time is now limited… said market analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are lower with EU shares amid negative economic forecasts, a deteriorating state of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and growing concerns about the yield curve.
Geopolitically, the Kremlin stated that the latest talks have not been “promising” and much work still needs to be done which is weighing on risk assets and bolstering oil prices this morning.
Economically, Germany cut its GDP growth forecast to just 1.8% in 2022 from 4.6% previously and an EU economic sentiment survey missed estimates.
Looking into today’s session, focus will be on jobs and growth data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 438K) and Final Q4 GDP report (E: 7.1%) due out before the bell.
Additionally, there are two Fed speakers: Barkin (9:15 a.m. ET) and George (1:00 p.m. ET) but based on this morning’s price action, geopolitics remain the most notable influence on markets, and sentiment towards the war in Ukraine will likely be the biggest driver of markets again today.
We must acknowledge the challenges ahead, and be ready with a plan to insulate ourselves from volatility and protect portfolios…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Implying the Russia/Ukraine war wasn’t materially slowing growth…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The market has, to a degree, called the Fed’s bluff on rate hike plans as rate hike expectations were dialed back in the immediate wake of the dot plot release and economic projections, but the Fed is indeed tightening policy and regardless of the pace of the trend, yields are going higher in the months and quarters ahead, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a generally quiet weekend as investors digest last week’s gains.
The Russia/Ukraine war continued with no notable progress towards a cease-fire over the weekend and hope for a near-term peace is fading.
Economically, the only notable report was German PPI, which encouragingly missed expectations, rising 1.4% m/m vs. (E) 1.7% m/m.
Today there are no economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Bostic at 8:00 a.m. ET, and he shouldn’t move markets. So, focus will remain on Russia/Ukraine, and any hints of progress towards a ceasefire will help extend the rally, while any additional escalation will be a headwind on stocks.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures came for sale late yesterday following negative Russia-Ukraine headlines as traders continue to digest the sizeable post-Fed rally.
After the Wall Street close yesterday, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency released a report that Russia is increasingly likely to threaten nuclear options as the war with Ukraine drags on which weighed on risk assets broadly.
Today, there is one economic report: Existing Home Sales (E: 6.170M) but it shouldn’t move markets and two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET) and Evans (2:00 p.m. ET) but neither are voting members of the FOMC.
Today is quadruple witching options expiration so expect big volumes and some technical trading in equity markets however geopolitical developments regarding Russia and Ukraine will still be able to influence price action as we close out another volatile trading week.
Investors took profits on Friday while they could ahead of the weekend…explained Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
