“The expectation that consumer demand will firm markedly in China as the economy continues to recover from the impact of strict economic lockdowns is another supporting factor for oil markets this week,” said Richey. Click here to read the full article.
Sevens Report Research President Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss U.S. inflation, Fed policy, economic uncertainty, and the outlook for markets. “I think the Fed will be more hawkish than the market is currently expecting. We have to remember something. If we look at year-end Fed Funds estimates, it’s 4% to 4 and 1/4%. So the market is pricing in numerous rate cuts, not hikes, rate cuts before year end”…said Tom Essaye. Click here to watch the full interview.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following better than expected economic data.
Chinese exports handily beat expectations in March rising 14.8% vs. (E) -7.0%, in what is the latest signal that the global economy remains resilient.
On inflation, German CPI met expectations rising 0.8% m/m and 7.4% y/y, numbers that are still too high in aggregate, but won’t make the ECB incrementally hawkish.
Today focus will remain on inflation and the labor market via PPI (E: 0.0% m/m, 3.0% y/y), Core PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 233k). PPI is expected to show moderation and importantly PPI is viewed as a quasi-leading indicator to CPI, so if numbers come in under expectations that’ll increase hopes inflation is truly easing. For jobless claims, the higher the better as it implies normalization in the labor market, something the Fed wants to see before it can pause.
The revisions fueled recession concerns that intensified this week, with “every major data point”—including jobless claims, manufacturing activity and construction spending—signaling the economy is slowing down and pushing some experts to worry it may be slowing down too quickly, says Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
“Basically I think there’s some regulation concerns, not so much in the governmental sense yet, but perhaps industry regulations. That’s just injecting some fundamental uncertainty into the whole space, and given the valuations and popularity of the AI names, it’s resulting in some wild gyrations!” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye says. Click here to read the full article.
“Bottom line, the fundamental dynamics of the oil market changed this week with OPEC+’s announced production cut, which they said was geared towards regaining control of the markets and spooking speculators out of the market,” said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet weekend of news as investors digest the “Just Right” jobs report and look ahead to CPI on Wednesday and the start of earnings season on Friday.
Friday’s jobs report was “Just Right” with job adds rising 238k vs. (E) 230k and wages gaining 4.2% vs. (E) 4.3% y/y. The report is helping to slightly ease the hard landing worries from last week.
Today should be a mostly quiet day of trading as European markets are closed for the Easter holiday and there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Williams at 4:15 p.m. ET, as investors will look ahead to Wednesday’s critical CPI report and the start of bank earnings on Friday.
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The surprise announcement also suggests OPEC+ may be getting more cautious about its outlook for global oil demand given the elevated threat of a potentially deep recession looming, says Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“To say a lot has transpired in the markets over the past three weeks would be an understatement,” Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote in a Thursday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.
