Posts

Drop in Treasury Yields May Help Stocks, But This Level Matters

/in , /by

Sevens Report says bond market must stabilize to support equities

Drop in Treasury yields may provide ‘tailwind’ for stocks — but watch out for this level

Friday’s drop in Treasury yields offered a short-term boost to equities, but Sevens Report Research says investors should remain cautious.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said the 10-year Treasury’s fall to around 4.2% brings it to “a more positive level” for stocks. However, he emphasized that yields need to stabilize and be confirmed by incoming economic data in order to become a “new tailwind” for the market.

Essaye warned that if yields continue to drop sharply—particularly if the 10-year approaches 4.00%—it could indicate a deeper concern. “That will not be positive for stocks as it’ll signal more of a growth scare versus anything positive,” he wrote Monday.

For now, the bond market isn’t flashing warning signs. But Sevens says the next few data points will be key to determining if yields are helping—or hurting—the rally.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets

/in , /by

Sevens Report sees no recession yet, but warns of rising anxiety

What the bad jobs report means for markets

“The jobs report was a major disappointment, but job adds are still positive, so it’s not signaling any sort of recession or slowdown,” Sevens wrote Monday.

Sevens Report noted that the report is often the “most inaccurate” of economic data, prone to distortions and revisions—especially during the summer. Broader indicators like jobless claims and the JOLTS survey remain stable, offering a more balanced picture of the labor market.

Tariff announcements on Friday were also shrugged off. Sevens said the moves were “largely in line with expectations” and that the market reaction reflected sentiment rather than surprise. “The S&P 500 gave zero room for disappointment,” the firm noted.

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s ISM Services PMI could be critical. A drop below 50 may fuel recession fears and push stocks lower, while a stable reading above 50 would help settle nerves.

With defensive sectors outperforming late last week, Sevens advised staying balanced: “If you’re very light defensives, you may want to be ready to boost them if data is soft.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report warns of early signs of an AI-driven market bubble

/in , /by

Sevens Report warns of early signs of an AI-driven market bubble

10 AI Stocks Analysts Are Watching Closely

The latest Sevens Report highlights growing concerns that AI-related stocks—especially chipmakers—may be flashing early warning signs of a bubble.

“Every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative,” the report states. “That potentially bubble-inflating theme is unquestionably AI technology.”

Much of the enthusiasm has centered around Nvidia (NVDA), but Sevens warns that relying on a single name can be dangerous. “There are a lot of various factors that can impact a single stock, including a ‘cult following’… a dynamic that has appeared to have emerged with NVDA as well.”

Instead, they recommend watching the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which includes multiple AI players like AMD, Qualcomm, and others. “It would be much more prudent to keep tabs on the broader-based semiconductor index, SOX,” they wrote.

The SOX hasn’t hit a new high since July 2024, even as the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 13% in that time. Sevens warns that if AI remains the sole driver of optimism, “this market is in trouble and at risk of rolling over sooner than later.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Insidermonkey.com on August 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

AI Bubble Fears Grow as Chip Stocks Diverge From Broader Market

/in , /by

Sevens Report urges caution as SOX index lags S&P 500 gains

5 big analyst AI moves: Microsoft upgraded on Azure growth, chip stocks PTs raised

Sevens Report Research warned Friday that a growing disconnect between AI chip stocks and the broader equity market could be an early signal of an “AI bubble.”

“Every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative,” the firm wrote, calling AI technology the latest potentially bubble-inflating theme.

While Nvidia often draws attention as the face of the AI rally, Sevens cautioned that single-stock enthusiasm—especially driven by a “cult following”—can obscure broader market signals.

“It would be much more prudent to keep tabs on the broader-based semiconductor index, SOX,” the report said. Despite strong gains in the S&P 500 since July 2024, SOX has failed to post a new high, raising red flags.

“If AI remains the primary source of bullish optimism… this market is in trouble and at risk of rolling over sooner than later,” the report concluded, likening the broader market to Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Worried About an AI Bubble? Watch This Indicator

/in , /by

Tom Essaye says chip stocks may be the canary in the coal mine

Stocks Are Hitting New Highs and Investors Don’t Believe It

While artificial intelligence remains the dominant market narrative, Sevens Report President Tom Essaye warns that investors should be cautious about hype outpacing reality.

“Every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative,” Essaye wrote, comparing today’s AI surge to past booms like the dot-com and housing bubbles. He suggests that the best early warning signs may come from semiconductor stocks—especially the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).

Nvidia may be hitting record highs, but Essaye cautions that focusing solely on NVDA could be misleading. “That divergence in index performance is meaningful,” he said. If SOX begins to materially sell off, he warns, “the S&P 500 will almost certainly not be far behind.”

Although he stops short of calling the top, Essaye believes equity markets are underpricing the risks. “There is a significant sense of complacency in equity markets right now,” he wrote, urging investors to stay alert in the second half of 2025.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

AI Euphoria Driving Market Bubble? Sevens Report Co-Editor Warns

/in , /by

Tyler Richey compares tech rally to Looney Tunes—gravity may come next

US stocks soar to new highs as fears of bubble bursting rise

As U.S. stocks soar to record highs, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, warns the market may be approaching a bursting point.

“Every market bubble in modern history has had a narrative,” said Richey. “In 2000, it was the internet. In 2008, real estate. In 2025, it’s AI.” With NVIDIA’s market cap jumping $1.933 trillion since April, Richey likens the chip sector’s run to the Road Runner, while the S&P 500 plays Wile E. Coyote—suspended in midair, just before the fall.

He pointed to:

  • Multidecade extremes in relative strength

  • Technical imbalances across sectors

  • Bearish sentiment divergence despite index highs

“A downward force that the broader stock market could very well be on the brink of facing itself,” Richey warned.

Also, click here to view the full article published in S&P Global on July 31st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday

/in , /by

Dissents unlikely to signal policy shift amid speculation over Fed succession

How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday

Under normal circumstances, dissents for a rate cut would signal a dovish shift. But current dynamics make that unlikely to move markets, said Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research.

“Don’t believe any reporting that implies the dissents are a dovish surprise or make a September rate cut more likely,” Essaye wrote Tuesday. “It won’t be a surprise and they won’t make a September cut more likely.”

Essaye notes that any dissents from Waller or Bowman would be seen as political positioning, not monetary policy pivots—particularly as both are viewed as potential successors to Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Says $750B EU Energy Deal Carries Financial Asterisk

/in , /by

Tyler Richey, Co-Editor, Sevens Report Research Quoted by MarketWatch.

The Energy Report: They Said It Couldn’t Be Done

“If there are plans to more rapidly expand Europe’s nuclear power capacity by utilizing U.S.-based companies, and the power-plant construction, operation, long-term fuel fulfillment contracts, and future reactor services (some of which can be decades long) are all included in that $750 [billion] ‘headline number,’ then there could be a case made that the pulled-forward dollar amount of future operations could boost the value of the deal,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

However, that scenario would require some “financial engineering” to achieve the $750 billion, which would “leave the realistic dollar amount of the deal carrying an asterisk based on the three-year timeline mentioned,” Richey told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Credit Spreads Are More Elevated Than You Think

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Credit Spreads: More Elevated Than You Think
  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index Points to Cooling Inflation
  • JOLTS Decline But Top Estimates

Futures are modestly higher this morning as traders digest yesterday’s pullback ahead of today’s Fed decision.

Economically, Eurozone GDP rose +1.4% y/y vs. (E) +1.2% which is supporting the tentative risk-on price action this morning.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 75K), Advanced Q2 GDP (E: 2.5%),  and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.2%) all due to be released.

Attention will then turn to the Fed meeting with the FOMC Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET with traders most focused on the prospects of a September rate cut.

Finally, earnings season continues as well and the following companies results have the potential to move markets, particularly the Mag-7 names reporting today: KHC ($0.64), HUM ($6.32), META ($5.83), MSFT ($3.35), CVNA ($1.10), QCOM ($2.72), ADP ($2.22), HOOD ($0.31).

 

Stablecoin Primer: Why Last Week’s Legislation Was Important

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Stablecoin Primer:  Why Last Week’s Legislation Was Important

Futures are little changed following a night of mixed earnings followed by more mixed economic data.

The EU July flash PMI slightly beat estimates (51.0 vs. (E) 50.9) while the UK reading missed (51.0 vs. (E) 51.7) but both numbers were above 50 and signaling expansion.

On earnings, GOOGL posted solid numbers (up 3% pre-market) while TSLA underwhelmed (down 6% pre-market).

Today focus will turn towards economic data and there are two notable reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.7).  If both reports are solid, look for the rally to continue driven by cyclical sectors, as investors embrace a potentially re-accelerating economy.  We also get New Home Sales (E: 650K), although that shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, the season remains “fine” so far.  Key reports we’re watching today include: INTC ($0.14), AAL ($0.79) and BX ($1.10).