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Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Set Rate-Cut Expectations

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Sevens Report president Tom Essaye: Fed chair’s comments may shape September policy outlook

Target is probably still missing the mark: Opening Bid top takeaway

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations or he could simply not discuss policy much at all. From a market standpoint, any hint of promise of a rate cut will be welcomed, and push back on rate-cut expectations will likely cause a market decline,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article on Aol.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Sway Markets

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Investors eye rate-cut signals ahead of Fed meeting and retail earnings

Market-Moving Events Await Including Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting and Retail Earnings

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said Monday that Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could have significant market impact.

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations, or he could simply not discuss policy much at all,” Essaye noted.

He added that markets would welcome any hint of a cut, while firm resistance from Powell would likely weigh on stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article on news.ssbcrack.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Market’s Perspective on Peace Efforts in Ukraine
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are slightly lower amid a “sell-the-news” reaction to the lack of a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine after President Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky.

There were no notable economic reports overnight leaving investors focused on geopolitics and retailer earnings.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.290M), and following yesterday’s soft Housing Market Index release, a soft number could weigh further on currently fragile, albeit still resilient, investor sentiment towards the economy.

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on conviction for a September Fed rate cut (the stronger the demand for the Bills, the better) while one Fed official is scheduled to speak in the afternoon: Bowman (2:10 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are some important retailer/consumer earnings this week with notables reporting today to include: HD ($4.71), MDT ($1.23), TOL ($3.59), SQM ($0.52). It will be important for earnings to continue to show consumer spending trends remain resilient, otherwise economic worries could weigh on markets this week.

 

Tom Essaye in Barron’s: Hot PPI Report Threatens Stock Rally Momentum

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Surging producer prices raise stagflation concerns for equity markets

Stocks’ Rally Could Stall After Hot PPI Report

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said Friday that July’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index poses a serious threat to the stock-market rally.

The headline PPI jumped by the most since March 2022, rising more than four times the consensus estimate. Essaye warned that the upside surprise introduces risks that had not been on investors’ radar.

Rising producer prices, he explained, could pressure corporate earnings while increasing the likelihood the Fed faces a “mandate dilemma” if inflation rises just as labor-market data weakens. That would be the “textbook definition of stagflation.”

“If stagflation emerges in the second half of 2025, equities are well over their skis,” Essaye noted, pointing to the S&P 500’s 22-times multiple on what may be overly optimistic 2026 earnings forecasts.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Hot PPI Data Undermines Stock-Market Rally Pillars

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Surging producer prices raise doubts on inflation, Fed cuts, and profits

Thursday’s hot PPI challenges three pillars of stock-market rally

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said Thursday’s hotter-than-expected PPI report has chipped away at three key supports of the 2025 stock-market rally.

The first is confidence that inflation is on track to the Fed’s 2% target. The second is the assumption that a September rate cut is locked in. Essaye warned that if PPI flows into CPI, the Fed could face a “mandate dilemma” between curbing inflation and supporting growth.

The third is optimism for continued corporate profit growth in 2026. Rising producer costs, Essaye cautioned, could compress margins and leave investors disappointed.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Fading AI Enthusiasm Could Threaten Market Rally Despite Strong Economy

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Sevens Report warns that slowing momentum in AI stocks may weigh on equities even if growth remains resilient

10 AI Stocks Making Headlines This Week

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye cautioned that a cooling wave of enthusiasm for AI stocks could spell trouble for the broader market. The note highlighted steep drops in C3.ai and CoreWeave following soft guidance and disappointing results.

“Those moves put a question in my head… What happens to this market if AI loses momentum?” Essaye wrote. While investors remain focused on tariffs, economic data, and Fed policy, the report warned that equities could falter even in a stable macro environment if AI names fail to deliver.

Five stocks — Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom, and Palantir — have powered 56% of the S&P 500’s 10.8% year-to-date gain, according to Sevens. Essaye stressed that execution will be critical as the AI trade matures. “If AI enthusiasm begins to fade, this market will face a headwind regardless of whether the economy is stable,” the report said.

Also, click here to view the full article on Insidermonkey.com published on August 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Events That Could Actually Cause a Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Events That Could Actually Cause A Pullback
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About the Fed (Does Powell Signal A September Cut on Friday?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth Updates This Week (Do They Push Back on Stagflation Worries?)

Futures are slightly lower as the Trump/Putin summit produced no substantial changes in the war amidst an otherwise quiet weekend (market focus is on Powell’s speech Friday and whether he hints at a Sept rate cut, or not)

The Trump/Putin summit resulted in neither a ceasefire nor the threat of oil sanctions and as such, the market is largely ignoring the event.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Focus today will be on geo-politics with President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.  From a market standpoint, its focus remains on oil prices.  If the cease fire efforts fail and Trump again threatens oil sanctions on China and other countries buying Russian crude, that will push oil prices higher and put a headwind on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 34) and an important earnings report after the close (Palo Alto Networks, PANW ($0.50).  Given last week’s underwhelming tech reports, markets will want to see a solid result.

 

Tom Essaye: Inflation-Driven Bitcoin Drop Doesn’t Derail Long-Term Bullish Outlook

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Sevens Report founder says institutional adoption and regulation support crypto’s future despite near-term volatility

Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls 7% as U.S. Inflation Hikes Pressure Rate Cut Prospects

Bitcoin slid 7% on Friday as hotter U.S. inflation data weighed on rate-cut expectations, sparking a broad risk-off move in markets. Despite the pullback, the cryptocurrency remains up roughly 25% year-to-date and has rallied nearly 57% from April’s lows.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said the short-term volatility reflects Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. “Inflation pressures are clearly a headwind in the near term, but the longer-term outlook hasn’t changed,” Essaye noted. He pointed to institutional adoption and regulatory clarity as key drivers supporting Bitcoin’s structural bullish case.

“Volatility will always be part of crypto, but the foundation is getting stronger,” Essaye said, stressing that macro shocks don’t erase the sector’s long-term growth potential.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on August 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Warns AI-Fueled S&P 500 Rally Risks Dot-Com Style Downside

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Sevens Report’s Essaye flags downside risks tied to semiconductors

Bank of America Warns S&P 500 Tops Dot-Com Bubble on AI Stock Surge

Bank of America strategists warn that the S&P 500 has surpassed dot-com era valuations, fueled by an AI-driven surge in tech leaders. Industry analysts echo similar concerns, including Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, who points to semiconductor indices as a key risk factor.

Essaye cautioned in remarks cited by Business Insider that if economic resilience falters, the sector could drag the broader market lower. His outlook: “considerable downside” in coming quarters, especially if inflation reaccelerates or geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains.

Adding to the vulnerability, passive investing trends may be amplifying bubbles. With index funds funneling capital into overvalued leaders, market corrections could be sharper when momentum unwinds.

Also, click here to view the full article on Webpronews.com published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

AI Market Rally Shows Cracks as Semiconductors Lag S&P 500 – Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report founder warns of late-cycle risks amid slowing economic data

BofA Warns of Dotcom Bubble Vibes in S&P 500 Valuations

Bank of America analysts compared today’s valuations to the late-1990s dotcom bubble, and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye echoed those concerns. He noted that the AI-driven rally may be masking underlying risks, particularly in semiconductors.

“The SOX index isn’t keeping pace with the S&P 500, and that’s a red flag,” Essaye said, pointing out that chip stocks are the backbone of AI innovation. “If semis can’t lead, then it calls into question the sustainability of this rally.”

Essaye also flagged weakening economic indicators, including soft job gains and rising jobless claims, as evidence that the U.S. may be entering a late-cycle phase. Together, those factors increase the risk that today’s market exuberance could mirror past bubbles.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.