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Where Do We Stand With Tariffs (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs? (Updated 3/5/25)

Futures are higher amid risk-on global money flows after U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be scaled back as soon as today while the Ukraine-U.S. minerals deal is also seeing progress which is easing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Eurozone Composite PMI met estimates at 50.2 while EU PPI jumped up to 1.8% vs. (E) 1.4% in January, rekindling still simmering inflation worries.

This morning is lining up to be a busy one as there are several noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic reports due to be released beginning with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 162K). Then, shortly after the open, both Factory Orders (E: 1.4%), and the February ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0) will be released.

There are no Fed speakers today, however there is a 4-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and demand for the short-duration securities could shed light on the latest shifts in Fed policy expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues with notable reports due to be released from ANF ($3.48), MRVL ($0.59), and VSCO ($2.30).

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye

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“Where’s the Trump Put?”: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Up in Late Hours on Hints of Tariff Relief: Markets Wrap

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?
  • February Consumer Confidence Takeaways
  • Chart – Case-Shiller Home Price Index Highlights Sticky Inflation Pressures

Futures are solidly higher with mega-cap tech leading the early advance amid renewed AI optimism after Chinese AI company DeepSeek reopened access to its core interface model while investors await NVDA earnings after the close (shares up ~2.5% pre-market).

There are a slew of potential market catalysts today starting with one economic report due out shortly after the open: New Home Sales (E: 680K) and two noteworthy Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (important for near-term Fed policy rate expectations) and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (important to gauge investor concerns about an economic slowdown).

Finally, there are a few notable consumer companies reporting earnings before the open including LOW ($1.83) and TJX ($1.16) but the biggest potential market moving catalyst of the day comes after the close with NVDA earnings ($0.84), as well as two other important tech-related earnings releases from CRM ($2.61) and SNOW ($0.18).

Why Stocks Dropped Last Week (New Reason)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped Last Week (New Reason)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  A Big Week for Tech & Inflation (NVDA Earnings Wed, Core PCE Price Index Friday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Does Data This Week Increase Growth Concerns?

Futures are enjoying a solid bounce following a mostly quiet weekend of news and ahead of a catalyst filled week.

Economically, data from Europe was solid as German Ifo Business Expectations were slightly better than expected (85.4 vs. (E) 85.0) while Euro Zone Core HICP (their CPI) met expectations (2.7% y/y).

Politically, German elections went largely as expected with center-right parties CDU/CSU winning while the far-right AfD party slightly underperformed vs. expectations.

Today there are no notable economic reports so barring any surprise policy headlines on tariffs or trade, it should be a relatively quiet start to the week (although it will get busier as the week progresses).

Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market

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Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

Oil recoups some of its recent losses as U.S. imposes fresh sanctions on Iran

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran announced Monday “invited a modest bid to the market” and the news helped U.S. benchmark prices defend the psychological $70 level, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch on Monday.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on February 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

Futures are little changed following slightly disappointing economic data overnight.

EU and UK flash PMIs underwhelmed as the EU Services PMI declined to 50.7 vs. (51.5) while the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 vs. (E) 48.5, underscoring the economic headwinds facing the EU and UK.

Today focus will stay on economic data and the two key reports are the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0).  Markets will want to see in-line to slightly weak readings but most importantly, no big jumps in the price indices like we saw in Empire and Philly earlier this week.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.16 million) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 68.0) as well as two Fed speakers:  Jefferson (11:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:30 a.m. ET).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Lowering Energy Prices To “Combat Sticky High Inflation”

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Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies climb for a third week in a row

A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, or end of the war, could be bearish for oil if Trump, who is adamant about lowering energy prices to “combat sticky high inflation” pushes for an immediate removal of all sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Also, geopolitical stability may “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.”

The market’s reaction to the CPI data underscored that “higher-for-longer Fed policy is becoming increasingly likely in 2025,” Richey said. “That ultimately raises the risk that restrictive rates choke off growth and tip the economy over a fragile edge into a recession, a historically demand-crippling phase of the economic cycle for oil and refined products.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation

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Tom Essaye Interview With Financial Sense

This Week: Sticky Inflation and More Tariffs – Tom Essaye on Market Response

Financial expert Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation, the potential impact of new tariffs, and why the Fed may be forced to reconsider rate cuts. With the S&P 500 at record highs, Essaye warns of market vulnerability and highlights where investors should be looking now. Don’t miss this deep dive into inflation, interest rates, and market strategy!

Also, click here to view the full interview with Financial Sense published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

Why ‘The People are the Product’ for RDDT and TTD A.I. Usage

Ahead of Reddit (RDDT) earnings, shares are trading off of all-time highs. “These platforms live and die based off the usage” of its subscribers, says Tom Essaye. He adds that he likes the company’s business structure, believing the company will only become more valuable. For The Trade Desk (TTD) he says the AI story will be one to watch. Tom believes the AI technology has to make its ads more effective, targeted and valuable.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.