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Tom Essaye Interviewed on BNN Bloomberg on January 3rd, 2023

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Gold is the top metal pick for kicking off 2023: Tom Essaye

Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss his market take for the new year. Essaye says that nothing fundamentally changed in the markets, despite it being a new year, and discusses his advocacy for defensive sectors amid Q1 volatility and lower returns. He says that gold is looking particularly attractive when compared to its commodity peers. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo via Bloomberg on December 29th, 2022

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Stocks Post Month’s Best Day as Rate Surge Fades: Markets Wrap

“Markets enter 2023 at important transition points. One path is paved with continued disinflation, resilient earnings, moderating growth, a balanced labor market, and higher stock and bond prices. The other path is paved with sticky inflation, slowing growth, a continued tight labor market and lower stock and bond prices. Data points at the start of the year will offer important clues as to which path the markets are taking.” Said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on December 21st, 2022

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Dow Soars 500 Points as Consumer Data Adds Some Cheer

“Stocks are digesting the declines of the past two weeks and while there are some notable employment and inflation numbers looming on Thursday and Friday, the bottom line is the calendar into year-end should be mostly quiet, again barring any material surprises,” Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on December 29th, 2022

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The Nasdaq Jumped Over 2% as Markets Staged a Relief Rally

“In China, Covid-19 cases continue to explode higher and there were reports of overwhelmed hospitals, but officials are proceeding with a full economic reopening.” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Why There’s Some Cause for (Cautious) Optimism

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why There’s Some Cause for Cautious Optimism

Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest Thursday’s rally.

Economically the only notable number was the UK Home Price Index, which like the U.S. readings this week saw smaller than expected declines, falling –0.1% vs. (E) -0.7%.

Geopolitically, Russia continued Thursday’s missile bombardment of Ukraine is a clear signal that fighting will rage on as the New Year begins.

Trading today will be dominated by book squaring and year-end positioning but there is one notable economic report, Chicago PMI (E: 41.0), and if it’s weak it could weigh on markets moderately.

Is It Time to Allocate to Growth?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Start of 2023 Isn’t the Time to Allocate to Growth
  • Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Indices
  • Chart: Value Massively Outperformed Growth in 2022

Stock futures are modestly higher in cautious trade this morning with Treasuries largely steady and overseas markets mixed as focus remains on China’s reopening efforts.

China’s government will resume the issuance of passports and visas while Hong Kong dropped PCR testing requirements for travelers, however the rapid move away from “Zero Covid” is beginning to rekindle inflation worries which could become a renewed headwind on equities.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Pending Home Sales (E: -0.5%) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -6) but neither should impact Fed policy expectations or meaningfully move markets in quiet holiday trading.

There are no Fed speakers to watch today but the Treasury will hold a 5-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and following yesterday’s large move higher in yields, surprisingly strong or unexpectedly weak demand could influence equity market trading.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on December 21st, 2022

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Oil prices end higher after drop in U.S. crude inventories

“Specifically, despite skyrocketing cases and reports of stressed hospitals, Chinese authorities are not locking down cities and that implies continued increases in energy demand as the world’s second largest economy comes back online,” said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on December 21, 2022

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Dow Soars 500 Points as Consumer Data Adds Some Cheer

“Stocks are digesting the declines of the past two weeks and while there are some notable employment and inflation numbers looming on Thursday and Friday, the bottom line is the calendar into year-end should be mostly quiet, again barring any material surprises,” Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on December 19th, 2022

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Stocks Fall to Start the Week as Recession Worries Linger

“A lot of people are throwing in the towel on the year, for lack of a better word, and you’re seeing people sort of remove some of those hopeful year-end bullish bets,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Research, told Barron’s on Monday. Click here to read the full article.

Why Stocks Are Falling (It’s Not Just the Fed)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Are Falling (It’s Not Just the Fed)

Futures are sharply lower on momentum from Thursday’s selling as investors further digest the hawkish ECB decision and yesterday’s lackluster economic data.

Despite weaker stock prices this morning, economic data overnight was mildly encouraging.  EU and UK December flash PMIs both slightly beat estimates while the EU HICP wasn’t any worse than feared at 10.1% y/y.

Today there are two important economic reports, the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.7) and Flash Services PMI (E: 46.5) and markets will need to see those data points show 1) Resilient activity and 2) Declining price pressures (more dis-inflation) if they are going to help stocks stabilize.  We also get one Fed speaker, Daly (12:00 p.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, today is a Quadruple Witching options expiration and it could cause some intense volatility as many traders had been positioned for a year-end rally, and as those hopes are being dashed, some book-squaring is likely in order.  Point being, don’t be surprised by an uptick in volatility this afternoon and into the close.