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Stock Futures Dip as Tariff Pressures Build — Sevens Report Warns of Long-Term Risks

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Tom Essaye on why markets may be ignoring the true cost of rising global tariffs

Stock futures point to declines as investors face tariffs ‘much higher than anything in decades’

After a strong finish last week, U.S. stock futures pointed to modest declines Monday morning as investors began to confront the growing scale of global tariffs.

According to Sevens Report Research, markets may be underestimating the long-term impact of the tariff wave—one unlike anything seen in decades.

“Tariffs are already coming in higher than markets expected and much higher than anything in decades.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Founder Tom Essaye pointed to new trade deals and policy changes across major economies:

  • Vietnam just signed a deal with 20% baseline tariffs and 40% tariffs on rerouted goods

  • China: 30% tariffs

  • UK: 10% tariffs

  • “A soon-to-be host” of other countries are following suit

Despite this, the S&P 500 closed at a record high last week, with momentum continuing to push stocks upward. But Essaye cautioned that these risks are compounding beneath the surface:

“While the path of least resistance is higher… there are real risks building in the distance.”

He also noted that while the recently passed tax and spending bill may provide near-term stimulus, it will increase the national deficit in coming years—adding another layer of risk for investors to consider.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on July 7th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

July Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table – Is the Good News All Priced In?
  • Needed Context for Tariff & Trade Deal Announcements

U.S. futures are slightly higher while global shares were mixed overnight with Asian markets outperforming and EU equities lagging as the latest trade war news was digested.

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs were viewed as not-as-bad-as-feared with deadlines being pushed back and multiple mentions of potential exemptions mentioned in discussions with the EU and Asian trading partners, leaving markets steady this morning.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down from 98.8 to 98.6 vs. (E) 98.7 in June but the report is not materially impacting markets this morning.

Today there is just one, lesser-followed economic report due out in the afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $11.5B) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

There is a 3-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could potentially move yields and impact equity markets, but otherwise, trader focus will remain on the still very fluid trade war narrative.

Dow and Russell 2000 Are Rallying But Don’t Call It a Breakout Just Yet

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Tom Essaye on why broader confirmation is still needed for this to be a real bull-market shift

Dow Jones and Russell 2000 Are Joining the Stock Market Party. Would It Be a Game Changer for the Bulls?

The recent surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 has caught investor attention, raising hopes that a broader bull market is finally taking shape.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, this may not yet be the breakout moment investors are hoping for.

“Investors shouldn’t automatically increase their exposure just because the Dow is near record levels.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that while the Dow’s rally is a positive development, it reflects only a narrow segment of the market—just 30 large-cap companies—and doesn’t fully reflect market breadth.

“More meaningful progress would come from record highs in the Russell 2000 or equal-weighted S&P 500,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

While both the Russell 2000 and equal-weighted S&P 500 have made notable moves recently, they still remain below prior record levels, suggesting that the broader market has more work to do before confirming a sustained breakout.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Outlook: Positive News, but Investor Complacency is Surging

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Outlook: Positive News, but Investor Complacency is Surging
  • Weekly Market Preview: Tariff Updates – Is TACO Still Valid?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Focus on the Labor Market This Week

Futures are moderately lower on an increase in trade anxiety as the July 9th reciprocal tariff deadline approaches.

President Trump threatened a 10% tariff for any countries that align with “anti-American” BRIC policies and that is reminding investors of ever-present trade tensions.

On reciprocal tariffs, Secretary Bessent said tariff rates won’t increase until August 1st but several countries would be notified of higher tariff rates this week.

Economically, UK retail sales & German IP beat estimates.

Today there are no economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will be on trade headlines.  Any reports of any more trade “deals” ahead of the July 9th deadline will be a positive for markets and help stocks recoup these early losses.

 

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Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Would New Highs in the Dow Be Positive for Stocks? (Not Necessarily)

Futures are little changed as markets await today’s important jobs report.

Politically, the Big, Beautiful Bill made more progress in the House overnight and it is expected to pass by July 4th (although this expected so it’s not a market moving event).

Economically, both EU and UK Composite PMIs beat expectations, pushing back growth fears in those regions.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 110K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 0.3% Wages.  Given yesterday’s soft ADP report, the stronger the number, the better as it’ll push back on slowdown fears.  Other important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and, again, better than expected numbers will be welcomed by the markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) but he shouldn’t move markets.

FOMO Kicks In as More Stocks Join the Rally | Tom Essaye Sees Room to Run

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Improving market breadth may fuel the next leg higher, says Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye

More Stocks Join the Surge, Signaling More Upside Ahead

The U.S. stock market is showing signs of broadening strength as more sectors join the rally that began with tech. According to Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, that’s a signal there may still be more upside ahead—as long as conditions remain stable.

“The market still has plenty of room to rise,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

In a recent interview with Wallstreet Insight, Essaye explained that this surge in market breadth—the number of individual stocks participating in the rally—is being driven by investor behavior:

“Investors who missed the historic rally in tech are now looking for opportunities in other sectors. It’s a classic case of FOMO trading.”

As lagging sectors catch up, the foundation of the rally strengthens. If this rotation continues, it could reduce concentration risk and extend the bull run beyond tech leaders.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)
  • Powell’s Tone Tilts Dovish
  • ISM Manufacturing Data Takeaways
  • Chart – Rise in JOLTS Highlights Labor Market Resilience

Stock futures are slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as traders mull President Trump’s fresh tariff threats (mostly directed at Japan) and await June payrolls data.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2% in May which was a slight negative regarding the outlook for the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak which will leave early focus on today’s June ADP Employment Report (E: 103K) due out ahead of the bell.

Additionally, UNF ($2.12) is due to report earnings (but the release should not materially move markets) and there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom line, with the June jobs report looming tomorrow, a big surprise in the ADP could impact markets while the 4-Month Bill auction could shed light on Fed policy expectations (the more dovish, the better) but today should be a relatively quiet day of positioning into the BLS release barring any new trade war developments.

Wall Street Doubts the Rally — Here’s Why We Don’t

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Sevens Report President Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on What’s Really Driving Stocks Higher

Stocks Are Hitting New Highs and Investors Don’t Believe It

Despite record-breaking highs in the S&P 500, many investors remain skeptical about the sustainability of the rally. In a recent Barron’s feature, Sevens Report President Tom Essaye was quoted outlining four compelling factors supporting continued market strength—from policy stability under the Trump administration to cooling inflation pressures and robust AI-driven momentum. He also breaks down why current stock valuations, when viewed through a forward-looking lens, may not be as stretched as headlines suggest.

Here’s what Tom outlined in the article:

  1. Policy Confidence: Investors are increasingly confident the Trump administration won’t implement policies that damage the economy.

  2. No Stagflation Signs: While tariffs may be inflationary, falling energy and housing costs are helping offset price pressure.

  3. AI Momentum: Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence remains a legitimate growth engine.

  4. Valuation Still Reasonable: 2026 earnings projections paint a much more attractive valuation story—just over 20× forward earnings.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New S&P 500 High Built on Confidence Not Complacency | Sevens Report Cautions What’s Next

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Markets rise on policy optimism, but slowing growth could still derail momentum

New S&P 500 high raises questions on longevity – Sevens Report

The S&P 500 has surged back to its February highs, but according to Sevens Report Research, that strength may be on shakier ground than it appears.

The rally is being driven in part by confidence that the Trump administration won’t materially damage the economy, despite aggressive rhetoric and growing tariff pressures.

“That belief is the foundation upon which the Q2 rebound was built,”
— Sevens Report

Another factor supporting the market: stagflation fears are fading, as falling housing and energy prices help offset inflation from tariffs. Meanwhile, strong economic indicators—like June’s flash PMIs beating expectations—have added to the positive sentiment.

The report also noted that while valuations appear stretched based on 2025 earnings, 2026 estimates suggest a more reasonable 20.8× forward P/E for the S&P 500.

“Analysts are quickly pivoting to using 2026 earnings estimates of $290–$300/share.”

Tech stocks, particularly AI-driven names, remain central to the rally, but Sevens Report warns that not all signals are bullish.

“There are growing signs that the labor market is losing momentum… and this market is making no allowances for a growth scare.”

Mixed jobless claims and the potential for weak PMI data in the week ahead could quickly shift the narrative. With a shortened holiday week ahead, the resilience of this rally may soon be tested.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is This Rally Sustainable?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This Rally Sustainable? It Depends on What You Think About Growth.
  • Chart – The Latest Chicago PMI Points to a Loss of Economic Momentum

Futures are lower, led by TSLA shares and big tech after the latest social-media rift between President Trump and Elon Musk offsets mostly upbeat economic data from overnight while the strong Q2’25 gains are digested.

Economically, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.3 to 50.4 vs. (E) 49.0 in June while the EU’s final manufacturing PMI edged up from 49.4 to 49.5 vs. (E) 49.4. On the inflation front, the Eurozone HICP Flash (CPI equivalent) rose 0.1% to 2.0% as expected.

Looking into today’s session, there are three noteworthy economic reports to watch: The ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.8), Construction Spending (E: 0.1%), and May JOLTS (E: 7.3 million). Investors will be looking for further evidence of resilience in growth metrics amid tame inflation pressures in order to short up rally-supporting soft landing hopes.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell will speak as part of a panel at an ECB Economic Forum in Portugal at 9:30 a.m. ET and any while he is unlikely to stray from the narrative that the FOMC is in “wait-and-see” mode, any insight on the future policy path could move markets today.

 

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