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“It doesn’t mean the economy’s rolling over”

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Tom Essaye Interviewed by Barron’s

Stocks Are in a Holding Pattern. It’s All About Inflation Data.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s in a phone interview that recent economic data, including durable goods and retail sales, have come in softer than expected.

“It doesn’t mean the economy’s rolling over,” he says. “But for a market that is priced for zero slowdown whatsoever, that is the risk that I think people need to watch. About the most surprising thing that I feel could happen to this market right now is that growth suddenly slows.”

“They’re behaving for now, but if you start seeing the 10-year climb far above 4.25%, I think that begins to become a headwind on the market,” Essaye says. “Until we get that inflation data, you kind of got markets in a bit of a holding pattern.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on February 27th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Market Multiple Table Chart: September

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Market Multiple Table Chart: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart (September Update)

Futures are slightly lower following more mixed economic data overnight.

There were no changes to the Market Multiple Table Chart for September, leaving the July/August target levels in place.

Japanese GDP (1.2% vs. (E) 1.3%) and Euro Zone GDP (0.1% vs. (E) 0.3%) both slightly missed expectations and further hinted at a loss of economic momentum.  Meanwhile, German CPI was in line with expectations (0.3% m/m, 6.1% y/y) as inflation in the EU remains sticky.

Today the calendar is mostly quiet, but focus will be on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Previous 212.0) and markets will want to see that “bell weather” for inflation continue to decline. If the MUVVI falls solidly we could see Treasury yields dip and stocks enjoy a relief rally.  Other notable events today include Consumer Credit (E: $18.0B) and a speech by Fed Governor Barr at 9:00 a.m. ET, but neither event should move markets.

September Market Multiple Table Chart

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Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 24, 2021

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Oil prices up sharply as U.S. official raises doubt that Iran will comply with nuclear commitments

“The general optimism about the economic reopening process, especially in the U.S.,” buoyed all risk assets Monday, “especially oil and refined products as traders look ahead to the unofficial start of the summer driving…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 14, 2021

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Oil prices finish the week higher as pipeline shutdown ‘short lived’

Oil futures climbed on Friday, erasing previous losses to finish higher for the week. “The Colonial Pipeline debacle got most of the attention from energy traders this week…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on May 14, 2021

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“Futures are moderately higher on momentum from Thursday’s rebound combined with a drop in industrial metals’ prices…” writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 11, 2021

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Gold pulls back from a 3-month high to mark first loss in 5 sessions

On the other hand, “the threat of stagflation continues to emerge as an underlying market theme, and that is supportive of gold for one main reason…” analysts at Sevens Report Research, wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Gold Bars

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on May 6, 2021

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New jobless claims fall to fresh pandemic-era lows

Sevens Report Research Founder & President Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the latest market action following better-than-expected jobless claims. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 30, 2021

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Amazon Rises, Clorox Dips, and Stocks Are Down

“Futures are modestly lower on disappointing economic data…” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 22, 2021

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Central Banks May Have Already Begun Lifting Bond Yields. What That Means for Stocks.

Some have speculated that while the Federal Reserve has reiterated it is sticking with current policy for now, fast-recovering inflation could force it to reduce support. “Yesterday is likely the day that central banks began the long trip back…” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 16, 2021

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Bond Yields Plunged and Stocks Rose. Here’s What’s Next.

The yield fell to 1.55% from 1.63%. Once it fell below 1.60%, those who were short the bonds rushed to buy them back, according to Sevens Report Research. That sent the price higher and…Click here to read the full article.

Stock Market Graph

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