Posts

Unknowns Are Weighing on the Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Unknowns Are Weighing on the Markets

Futures are modestly lower as markets still wait for a decision on direct U.S. involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict.

The White House said the President will make a decision on U.S. involvement within two weeks, leaving a potential diplomatic window open.

Economically, UK retail sales were weaker than expected, falling –2.7% vs. (E ) 1.3% while German PPI met expectations (1.2% y/y).

Today focus will be on economic data and the two notable reports are Philly Fed (E: -1.0) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  As has been the case, the stronger these readings, the better for stocks (it pushes back against the slowdown narrative).

It’s unlikely to materially impact the markets

/in , /by

It’s unlikely to materially impact the markets: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Xinhua

U.S. stocks rebound as investors brush off Middle East tensions

Despite lingering geopolitical concerns, historically low equity positioning and resilient fundamentals may be keeping a broader sell-off at bay, allowing risk appetite to return for now. “Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at the Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

/in , /by

Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Gulfnews.com

Oil rises, US futures drop on Trump Tehran warning: Markets wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally

/in , /by

The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

4 Ways to Find Winners in a Rising Market

“The gap between what we (and investors and clients) are reading daily in the mainstream and financial media is wide and getting wider,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye, citing the disconnect between “scary headlines” dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Technical Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Technical Preview
  • Retail Sales Data Takeaways – Signs of Weakness in Consumer Spending

Futures are higher as investors continue to monitor the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and digest largely as expected European inflation data ahead of the Fed.

Economically, Eurozone HICP fell to 1.9% from 2.2%, as expected, while UK CPI edged down to 3.4% vs. (E) 3.5% which is supporting a bid in the global bond market with yields falling moderately in premarket trade.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 244K) which come a day early, and Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.360M, 1.430M). Another sharp rise in jobless claims could bolster concerns about the health of the labor market but a big reaction from markets is unlikely given the looming Fed decision.

Speaking of which, the primary focus of today’s session will be the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) as investors look for clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

There are two late season earnings releases to watch as well: ACB ($0.11) and KFY  ($1.25) but with the Fed in focus, neither should materially move markets today.

FOMC Meeting Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are lower amid an elevated sense of market uncertainty after President Trump left the G-7 summit early as tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated.

Economically, Economic Sentiment within the latest German ZEW Survey rose from 25.2 to 47.5 vs. (E) 31.3, however European stocks are trading with a heavy tone amid the elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Today, there are several noteworthy economic reports to watch including: Retail Sales (E: -0.6%), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.3%, -0.1%),  Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), Business Inventories (E: 0.0%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 36).

Beyond the economic data, the June FOMC meeting gets underway today which should prompt a sense of “Fed paralysis” as investors await clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

Finally, there are two late-season earnings releases to watch: JBL ($2.15) and LZB ($0.93) but neither should move the broad markets as focus shifts to the Fed decision.

Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

/in , /by

Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report Editor Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise on Reports Iran Wants to Restart Talks: Markets Wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

 

Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines

/in , /by

Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why markets are ignoring scary headlines about Iran, trade wars and U.S. debt

Strategist Tom Essaye explained why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines in the Sevens Report, his daily market-strategy note.

However, Iran’s military capabilities have been so degraded, Essaye wrote, that Tehran’s ability to respond to Israel’s missile strikes and to counter its overall military superiority is severely inhibited.

According to Essaye, tariff fatigue has caused complacency to set in. There are too many headlines and deadlines for the average investor to follow accurately, and markets now routinely dismiss Trump’s ultimatums as bluff and bluster, as evidenced by the recent coinage “TACO,” or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The next significant deadline is July 9, the end of the 90-day pause in the imposition of Trump’s tariffs, and at that time markets may well reassess their current phlegmatic approach. Right now, however, Essaye believes that “markets are so [convinced about] TACO that it’s going to take a sustained tariff increase to shake the belief.”

After recently piercing the 5% level, though, 30-year Treasury bonds have rallied, implying that investors are not yet sufficiently worried about the U.S. fiscal situation to sell off Treasury bonds aggressively, Essaye wrote.

“If the 10-year yield begins to creep towards and through 5.00%, that will be a signal that the global bond markets are starting to worry about the U.S. fiscal situation and at that point, markets will care about deficits and debt, a lot! (and we should expect stocks to be sharply lower),” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Reset the trade relationship back to where it was

/in , /by

Reset the trade relationship back to where it was: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Netflix and 6 More Winning Stocks to Sell Now

The White House now says that trade negotiations with China are over, even though the latest agreement from London “did little other than to reset the trade relationship back to where it was following the Geneva talks and, importantly, didn’t result in any further tariff reduction,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye.

That means consumers will face at least 30% tariffs on Chinese imports and additional 25% on select goods and “according to the administration, they are going to stay there in perpetuity,” he notes. “Yes, ultimately Chinese tariffs were lower compared to the 145% absurdity in early April. But, they are much, much higher than at the start of the year.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What is the Shadow Fed?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is the Shadow Fed?

Futures are modestly lower as geopolitical concerns offset more strong tech earnings.

Geo-politically, multiple news outlets reported that Israel is preparing for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which is boosting gold prices and weighing on global markets.

Oracle (ORCL) beat earnings on continued robust demand for AI infrastructure (the stock is up 7% pre-market).

Today focus will be on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 243K) and PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y).  Claims have ticked higher in the last few weeks and if that continues, it will slightly increase economic anxiety and (slightly) pressure stocks.  On inflation, PPI is viewed as a loose leading indicator of CPI so if PPI can remain subdued, it’ll boost confidence inflation remains under control.

Finally, notable tech earnings continue today with ADBE ($4.01).