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Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Quoted in AInvest.com

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Dow Theory’s warning sign continues to flash

FedEx Earnings to Provide Clues on Stock Market Rally’s Fate

While the Dow Theory’s warning sign continues to flash, some strategists argue that it has little merit in the digital age, missing out on the significant role of vertically integrated retailers like Amazon and Walmart that handle their own shipping and delivery. Nevertheless, the Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey suggests that the Dow Theory should be used in conjunction with other indicators to get a full picture of the economy.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on September 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Weighs on AI Trade as Alphabet Hits $3 Trillion Milestone

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Essaye flags next Big Tech contender for record valuation

Google hits $3T market cap. This Big Tech name could be next.

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to discuss the Google parent company’s recent gains and what it signals about the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. He also shares another Big Tech name that he thinks could be the next to hit $3 trillion.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

September Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Update – What’s Changed Since August?

Futures are slightly higher while overseas equity markets were mixed overnight amid quiet newswires as the global bond rally stalls and investor focus turns to inflation data due later in the week.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8 vs. (E) 100.5 in August.

There are no additional economic reports in the U.S. today, and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

The Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and both have the potential to impact fixed income markets which could reverberate through equity markets (the stronger the demand, the better).

Finally some late season earnings to watch include: SAIL ($0.04), ORCL ($1.15), GME ($0.19), SNPS ($2.76), AVAV ($0.34), however, with the PPI and CPI reports due out tomorrow and Thursday, respectively, markets will more than likely remain quiet today.

 

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are slightly higher despite underwhelming earnings and mixed economic data overnight.

Salesforce (CRM) guidance was underwhelming and the stock is down –7% pre-market, adding to pressure on tech.

Economically, UK retail sales missed estimates (-0.5% vs. (E) -0.1%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on two of the three remaining important events of the week:  The ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and Broadcom (AVGO) earnings after the close.  Ideally, markets will want to see the ISM Services PMI move higher and not drop below 50, while strong AVGO earnings ($1.35) and guidance will help push back on some of the recent tech sector weakness that’s been a headwind for the S&P 500.

Other notable events today include ADP Employment (E: 68K), Jobless Claims (E: 232K) and two Fed speakers: Williams (12:05 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (7:00 p.m. ET).  Broadly speaking, the stronger the two employment reports and the more dovish the Fed speakers, the better for this market.

Finally, other earnings today include LULU ($2.84) and DOCU ($0.23).

 

How the “Degenerate Economy” Can Help Us Navigate This Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How the Degenerate Economy Can Help Us Navigate This Market
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

U.S. stock futures are solidly higher this morning, led by tech shares with GOOGL up 6%+ after a favorable court ruling saw the company avoid severe antitrust penalties while international stocks were mixed as bonds steadied in the wake of an early week spike in yields.

Economically, the final Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 51.0 vs. (E) 51.1 in August due to a weak Services index revision but the data is not materially moving markets focused on renewed tech sector strength this morning.

Today, focus will be on economic data early as jobs week kicks off the July JOLTS report (E: 7.375 million) while Factory Orders data from July will also be released mid-morning (E: -1.4%).

There are two Fed speakers today: Musalem (9:00 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:30 p.m. ET). As far as stocks are concerned the more dovish their tone, the better as investors are pricing in a September rate cut with a high degree of certainty.

Finally, late seasons earnings continue to be released with quarterly reports from DLTR ($0.38), HPE ($0.36), M ($0.19), CPB ($0.57), CRM ($2.12), AEO ($0.20), and AI (-$0.81) all due out today.

 

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance as the Fed Faces Twin Pressures

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Tom Essaye: Fed Faces Twin Pressures of Rising Inflation and Weakening Jobs

Fed is in the ‘worst possible’ position, analyst says

Central bank policy outlook grows more complicated heading into fall

The Federal Reserve is under mounting pressure as inflation shows signs of picking up while the labor market begins to soften, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

Speaking on Opening Bid, Essaye explained that this combination leaves the Fed in a difficult policy position heading into the fall. The central bank must balance the risk of tightening too little against the danger of tightening too much at a time when economic growth is already showing cracks.

“The Fed is caught between two mandates,” Essaye noted, adding that rising producer and consumer price data alongside weakening job gains increases the likelihood of a policy dilemma in the coming months.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on August 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Rising ETH/BTC Ratio Could Signal Stock Market Volatility

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Tom Essaye: Rising ETH/BTC Ratio Could Signal Stock Market Volatility

Why the S&P 500 could be at risk of a 10% to 20% pullback if ether falls behind bitcoin again

History suggests that a resurgence by Bitcoin in which it underperforms Ethereum could be a warning sign that stock-market volatility is about to increase, with the S&P 500 potentially facing a decline of 10% to 20%, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

Since early July, Ether has outpaced Bitcoin by a wide margin, rising 44% compared with Bitcoin’s 4% gain after trailing the world’s largest cryptocurrency for months. Historically, a rising ETH/BTC ratio has often coincided with sharp, short-lived rallies in equities that eventually gave way to market peaks, Essaye wrote in a Thursday note.

“In the last 10 or so years, every time we have seen such a robust and pronounced rise in the ETH/BTC crypto-pair, stocks have been sprinting higher in lockstep,” Essaye said. Strong bursts in ETH/BTC have historically lined up with important turning points in equities, among them the “low-volatility” rally of 2017 that preceded the 2018 selloffs, the spike in late 2019 ahead of the 2020 pandemic crash, and the 2021 rally that gave way to the 2022 bear market, he noted.

The ETH/BTC ratio has also surged 130% from its five-year low in April this year, moving in step with the strong tech-led rebound in stocks from their early April 2025 lows, Essaye added.

The one exception came in 2023 and 2024, when Bitcoin consistently outperformed Ether even as stocks remained strong, a departure from the earlier pattern. That contrast makes the current setup especially notable. With ETH/BTC rising again, investors should watch closely in case the historical relationship reasserts itself, Essaye said.

On Aug. 24, the ETH/BTC ratio touched 0.043, its highest level since September 2024, according to FactSet. Ether has gained 38.5% year to date, including a 75.9% surge in the past three months, compared with Bitcoin’s 20.3% year-to-date rise and 6.3% gain over the past three months.

“The risk of the long-ETH/short-BTC trade becoming exhausted appears underappreciated,” Essaye warned, pointing to signs that the momentum has slowed. The uptrend in place since August could soon be tested from the technical perspective, he added.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Breakeven Inflation Rates: Powell Has a “Price Problem”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Breakeven Inflation Rates:  Powell Has a “Price Problem”

Futures are modestly lower following a night of underwhelming earnings.

Earnings overnight were bad as tech companies DELL (–6% pre-market) and MRVL (-15% pre-market) both posted disappointing results, as did retailer GAP.

Economically, German retail sales missed expectations (-1.5% vs. (E) 0.0%) but that isn’t moving markets.

Today focus will be on inflation via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and to keep things simple, if this number is “hot” (so Core PCE Price Index above 3.0% y/y) that will increase inflation concerns, push back on rate cut hopes and, likely, pressure stocks further.  The other notable economic report today is Consumer Sentiment (E: 58.6) and focus will be on the inflation expectations inside the report.  The less they rise from last month, the better.

 

The Most Important Fed Speech of the Year (So Far)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Most Important Fed Speech of the Year (So Far)
  • Takeaways from Yesterday’s Sector Performance

Futures are seeing a modest bounce following a generally quiet night of news and head of Powell’s 10:00 a.m. ET speech.

Economically, German GDP declined more than expected, falling –0.3% vs. (E) -0.1%, adding to other hints of stagflation in the global data this week, although Japanese CPI met expectations (3.1% y/y).

There are no notable economic reports today so all the focus will be on Powell’s speech at 10:00 a.m. ET.  Market expectations are that he will signal he’s open to a rate cut in September, essentially reinforcing current market expectations.  If he does not and pushes back on rate cut hopes or ignores policy in his speech altogether, it will be a new market negative.

Finally, mid-season earnings (which have been mixed) continue with two notable reports today: BJ ($1.10), GFI ($0.59).

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s – Two Threats Could Derail Market Rally

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Sevens Report president says stagflation or fading AI enthusiasm are key risks

2 Factors That Could Trigger a Stock Market Selloff

Despite recent economic surprises and geopolitical noise, none of it has slowed the market rally, according to Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research.

“For the simple reason that they weren’t enough to make investors think that 1) tariffs may cause stagflation or 2) meaningfully reduce AI enthusiasm,” Essaye wrote.

He stressed that while conflicting inflation data, questions about data validity, and global tensions add uncertainty, investors should focus on whether developments increase stagflation risk or curb AI optimism.

“As long as the answer to both is ‘no,’ then while stocks may see some volatility, the trend in this market should remain higher,” Essaye concluded.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.