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Sevens Report: OpenAI’s $500B Valuation Rekindles AI Bubble Debate

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Employee confidence strong, but lofty revenue multiples raise caution

Is OpenAI’s stock sale the latest evidence we’re in an AI bubble?

The Sevens Report said Friday that OpenAI’s latest secondary stock sale, which valued the company at around $500 billion, has reignited debate over whether surging enthusiasm for artificial intelligence reflects confidence or a brewing bubble.

The sale allowed employees to offload up to $10 billion in equity, though only $6.6 billion was ultimately offered — a sign that insiders remain confident in OpenAI’s growth trajectory. Sevens noted that the transaction was a liquidity event, not new fundraising, underscoring strong investor appetite after OpenAI’s first-half 2025 revenue already surpassed full-year 2024 totals.

Still, the valuation implies 25 times expected 2025 revenue of $20 billion, which the firm said demands rapid monetization to justify. “Leadership will have to prove the ability to translate growth into profitability sooner rather than later,” analysts cautioned.

Sevens also warned that fading intraday strength in AI-linked names like Nvidia shows rising risk that the AI narrative could be challenged, potentially triggering profit-taking across tech and the broader equity market.

Also, click here to view the full investing.com article featured on Yahoo Finance published on October 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Takeaways from OpenAI’s Secondary Offering (More Evidence of An AI Bubble?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Takeaways from OpenAI’s Secondary Offering (More Evidence of An AI Bubble?)

Futures are slightly higher following another quiet night of news, as there was no notable progress on resolving the government shutdown overnight.

Economic data from Europe was mixed as the EU Services PMI as essentially in-line (51.3 vs. (E) 51.4) and rose since August, while the UK reading was weak, falling to 50.8 vs. (E) 51.9, a solid drop from the 54.2 August level.  That will add to anxiety about the UK economy.

Today there is no jobs report because of the slowdown so all the focus will be on the ISM Services PMI (E: 51.6) and the key for this number is to stay above 50.  If it drops below 50, that will add to slowdown concerns (although don’t be shocked by another “bad is good” rally in the short term).

There are also two Fed speakers today, Logan (1:30 p.m. E.T) and Jefferson (1:40 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

New ETFs to Watch and AI-Bubble Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • More Bubble Signs? OpenAI and NVDA Partnership
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are little changed as traders digest mixed EU Flash PMI data and await fresh comments from Fed Chair Powell today.

Economically, the EU Composite PMI Flash rose to 51.2 vs. (E) 50.9 with the Services Index notably rising to 51.4 vs. (E) 50.5 however the Manufacturing index disappointed.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch in the U.S., both of which will print shortly after the open: PMI Composite Flash (E: 53.0) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -10).

The Fed’s speaker circuit will remain fairly busy today with Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) speaking this morning before focus will turn to commentary from Powell (12:35 p.m. ET) mid-day.

Additionally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move bond yields and ultimately impact equities if there are any surprises regarding demand metrics (the stronger the demand the better for stocks).

Finally, some late season earnings reports continue to trickle in with notables reporting today including AZO ($50.52) and MU ($2.69).