Omicron is causing significant volatility in the energy complex as the impact on demand is not yet known…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly positive as markets bounce from Wednesday’s sell-off following a quiet night of news.
There are no definitive results yet, but the chatter on Omicron is that vaccines do still provide protection from severe illness, and that is slightly easing anxiety about the variant.
Economic data was sparse but showed continued inflation pressures as Euro Zone PPI rose 5.4% vs. (E) 3.2%.
Today the key report is Jobless Claims (E: 245K) and we expect a solid bounce back from last week’s very low numbers, but clearly, trends in the labor market continue to improve. We also get numerous Fed speakers including: Bostic (8:30 & 11:30 a.m. ET), Quarles (11:00 a.m. ET), Daly (11:30 a.m. ET), and Barkin (11:30 a.m. ET).
Bottom line, the market is dealing with three separate headwinds (ranked in order of importance): Omicron uncertainty, Fed tapering acceleration, and Washington dysfunction (possible shutdown). Positive headlines on any of them will help stocks bounce, while further negative headlines (like yesterday with a possible government shutdown) will cause another decline.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading lower and international markets were mixed overnight as investors look ahead to a very busy day of economic data while volumes are already thinning out given the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow.
Today, there is a slew of economic data due out including: Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.3%), Q3 GDP (E: 2.1%), Jobless Claims (E: 264K), New Home Sales (E: 790K), Core PCE (E: 0.4%, 4.1%), and Consumer Sentiment (E: 66.9).
There are no Fed officials speaking today however the November FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Bottom line, investors will be looking for good economic data today, but not so good that it will cause the Fed to accelerate tapering plans or pull forward the first rate hikes. That is especially true for the Core PCE print as it is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are trading lower with most overseas equity markets as elevated bond yields continue to weigh on big-cap tech names.
Economically, Composite PMI data in Europe was better than expected with the Eurozone figure hitting 55.8 vs. (E) 53.1 for November however the upbeat data is further supporting bond yields which are weighing on equities.
Looking into today’s session, there is one domestic economic report to watch: PMI Composite Flash (E: 57.8) and if it is as strong as the releases in Europe, that could support a further rise in yields which will keep pressure on equity markets.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could serve as another catalyst for higher yields. And again, that is a potential negative for stocks as big-cap tech names will almost certainly extend yesterday’s late-day declines if yields continue this week’s rise.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are bouncing from yesterday’s declines thanks to solid earnings and following an otherwise quiet night of news.
Widely held chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) posted strong earnings after the close and that’s helping to ease some anxiety around chip supplies.
There were no notable economic reports overnight.
Today there are two notable economic reports, Jobless Claims (E: 261K) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 21.4), and given every major economic report this week has been very strong, markets would like to see a solid number but nothing so strong that adds to the narrative that tapering may need to be accelerated.
Regarding the Fed, we have multiple speakers today including: Bostic (7:30 a.m. ET), Williams (9:30 a.m. ET), Evans (2:00 p.m. ET), and Daly (3:30 p.m. ET) although none of them should move markets.
Finally, as we explain in the issue, COVID and the Debt Ceiling are starting to become headwinds on stocks, and the headlines that imply further rising global case counts or lack of progress on the Debt Ceiling could be mild headwinds on stocks.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are enjoying a mild bounce following Wednesday’s losses as global yields are stable while U.S. bond markets are closed.
10 year Bund and GILT yields are little changed and that, combined with the bond market closure in the U.S., is allowing stocks to rebound.
Economically, British IP missed estimates (-0.4% vs. (E) 0.1%) while monthly GDP slightly beat (0.6% vs. (E) 0.5%).
Today is Veterans Day and as such, the bond markets are closed and there will be no economic reports and no Fed speakers. So, GILT and Bund yields will partially dictate trading and as long as they don’t rise, stocks can continue this early rebound from yesterday’s losses.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report and despite underwhelming European economic data.
German Industrial Production (-1.1% vs. (E) 0.9%) and EU Retail Sales (-0.3% vs. (E) 0.8%) both missed estimates but those reports aren’t moving markets.
House Democrats are expected to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill later today, while the larger $1.75 trillion stimulus bill remains in negotiations.
Today focus will be on the Jobs Report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 400K, UE Rate: 4.7%, Wages: 0.4%/4.8%. Given the Fed didn’t commit to a $15 billion tapering beyond December, a “Too Hot” number (in either jobs adds or wages) could cause market volatility, but outside of that occurring the jobs report shouldn’t move markets too much. We also get one Fed Speaker, George at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Bottom line for oil, futures just notched their eighth-consecutive weekly rise and prices are technically…the Sevens Report analysts said. Click here to read the full article.
The issues that caused the pullback have quieted over the past two weeks, which has…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
The “risk-off money flows” that are hitting the U.S. stock market on Tuesday also dragged crude and other…Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
