The 219 billion-cubic-foot weekly fall in U.S. supplies of the fuel reported by the Energy Information Administration Thursday leaves stockpiles more than 10% below last year’s levels…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
A surge in risk-off money flows in the back half of the week have caused oil futures to give back the bulk of this week’s gains…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Supply concerns continue to linger after production and pipeline outages overseas buoyed prices last week…Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
The various conflicts and threats across eastern Europe and the Middle East will remain supportive for energy in the near term, but it already appears that some of the supply and production disruptions are being…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The various conflicts and threats across eastern Europe and the Middle East will remain supportive for energy in the near term, but it already appears that some of the supply and production…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
supply concerns continue to linger after production and pipeline outages overseas buoyed prices last week…Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading at record highs as investors shrug off surging COVID cases and digest upbeat economic data.
New COVID cases topped 1 million in the U.S. Monday, nearly doubling the previous record, however, hospitalizations and deaths remain low, keeping economic lockdown odds minimal as the Omicron outbreak is increasingly expected to burn itself out in the coming weeks.
China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 vs. (E) 50.0 in December further easing global growth concerns.
Today, there are two economic reports to watch: ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 60.5) and JOLTS (E: 11.060M). Investors will be looking for more good data, but not so good that rate hike expectations are brought forward.
There are no Fed speakers today. The January OPEC+ policy meeting will be underway soon (E: +400K b/d production hike in February) and if the group of oil producers disappoint the market, expect a potential spike in volatility that could spill over into both equity and bond markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply higher mostly on momentum from yesterday’s strong close and despite soft economic data.
EU and UK flash PMIs missed estimates thanks to drops in the service sector and that implies Omicron is a headwind on global growth in Europe.
But, for now that concern isn’t enough to stop a year-end Santa rally as the Fed was hawkish, but not too hawkish.
Looking forward, today will be a busy day. First, we get two important central bank decisions (Bank of England at 7:00 a.m. and ECB at 7:45 a.m), and while neither are expected to change policy if they are hawkish in a tone that could partially offset the current Fed rally.
Meanwhile, we also get a lot of economic data including, in order of importance: December Composite Flash PMI (E: 58.4), Philly Fed (E: 28.8), Jobless Claims (E: 200K), Housing Starts (E: 1.563M) and Industrial Production (E: 0.7%). Bottom line, the market will want to see stability in the data especially given the looming rate hikes in 2022, and the last thing the market will want to see is a material weakness in the data given the Fed’s new hawkishness.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower on a slightly hawkish Reuters article about ECB QE and as markets digest this week’s rally.
According to Reuters, the ECB is considering tapering its QE program in March, which is sooner than markets expected and is another reminder that global central banks will be removing accommodation throughout 2022.
Economic data was sparse overnight as Chinese CPI met expectations rising 0.4%.
Today the only notable economic report is Jobless Claims (E: 223K) and they should show continued improvement in the labor market. Additionally, markets will remain on the lookout for any official government data or more findings from MRNA/PFE on vaccine effectiveness against Omicron, and anything that implies substantial protection against infection and severe illness will be a tailwind on stocks (although at this point the market doesn’t view Omicron as a material threat so the tailwind won’t be that strong).
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What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower as markets digest Thursday’s rally ahead of the jobs report.
In Washington, the Senate passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown, removing a potential risk from markets.
The Omicron variant has been detected in five states now but symptoms so far appear mild.
Economically, EU and UK Composite PMIs generally met expectations.
Today focus will be on the Job Report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds 543K, UE Rate 4.5%, and Wages 5.0% y/y. As long as the jobs report is around expectations (so not above 700k but still showing solid job additions with wages not spiking) then markets will expect a mild acceleration of tapering and the rally can continue. We also get the ISM Services PMI (E: 65.0) and markets will be looking for a similarly “Just Right” number to show solid growth but nothing so strong it would encourage the Fed to substantially accelerate tapering of QE.