Posts

Time to Buy Puts?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Time to Buy Puts?
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About Earnings)
  • Weekly Market Cheat Sheet (GDP Friday is the Key Report)

Futures are modestly lower thanks to higher oil and new concerns about the longevity of Chinese economic stimulus.

The South China Morning Post released an article saying Chinese officials will again focus on structural economic reforms, which means limited future economic stimulus.

Oil is 2% higher following reports the Trump administration will not renew any Iranian import wavers.

Today there is only one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 5.30M), and that won’t move markets.

So, the key to trading today will be earnings, and here are the reports we’re watching:  HAL ($0.23), KMB ($1.54), WHR ($3.04).

Is Healthcare A Buy? (It’s Negative YTD)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Faded At the Open Yesterday (For the Second Straight Day)
  • Is Healthcare a Buy? (XLV is lagging the S&P 500 by 16% YTD)
  • Oil and Energy Update

Futures are slightly lower following a night of mixed economic data.

EU flash composite PMIs missed estimates (51.3 vs. (E) 51.8) and that’s a disappointment given recent stabilization in China.  But, not all the data was bad as UK Retail Sales rose 1.1% vs. (E) 0.2%, likely on Britons stocking up goods ahead of the hard Brexit deadline in late March.

Today is the eve of a three day weekend but it’s going to be busy as we get a lot of economic data and important earnings.

Important data today includes (in order of importance):  PMI Composite Flash (E: 54.3), Retail Sales (E: 0.8%), Philly Fed  (E: 10.2) and Jobless Claims (E: 206K).  As we said in Monday’s report, the stronger the data, the better for stocks as there is no inflation threat right now (so good data won’t make the Fed hawkish).

On the earnings front, some releases we’ll be watching include:  AXP ($2.00), PM ($1.00), SLB ($0.30) and HON ($1.83).

Tyler Richey of Sevens Report was Quoted in The Wall Street Journal on March 3, 2019

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Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., said President Trump’s Twitter post last week saying oil prices were “getting too high,” and telling OPEC not to reduce production too much, will continue to work as a bearish counterweight to OPEC. “Trump’s tweet targeting OPEC+ policies from last week is still simmering…” Click here to read the full article.

 

 

 

Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch

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Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on February 4, 2019.

“There have been a lot of shifting pieces in the oil market to start 2019 as a dovish [Federal Reserve], and subsequently weaker dollar, sanctions on Venezuela, and…” Read the full article here.

Valuation Update (Better, But Not Good)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Equity Risk Premium Update – Better, But Not Good
  • Updated Oil Outlook

Futures are marginally weaker following a quiet night as markets as markets further digest the 2019 rally.

Economic data was sparse although Euro Zone Core HICP (their CPI) met expectations at 1.0%, which remains near multi-month lows.

Today focus will remain on earning and we get some notable consumer companies reporting (in addition to more banks).  Some reports we’ll be watching include:  MS ($0.90), PPG ($1.10), NFLX ($0.25),and AXP ($1.79).  As has been the case so far in earnings season, the commentary on the economy will be just as important as the actual results.

We also get two notable economic reports, including Jobless Claims (E: 216K) and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: 10.0) plus one Fed speaker: Quarles (10:45 p.m. ET). Bottom line, if earnings continue to beat low expectations, stocks can grind higher for now.

Tyler Richey appeared on TD Ameritrade Network on January 15, 2019.

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Tyler Richey appeared on TD Ameritrade Network on January 15, 2019. Watch the entire clip here

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey quoted in MarketWatch on January 3, 2019

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Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey quoted in MarketWatch on January 3, 2019. Read the full article here.

Sevens Report’s Co-Editor Tyler Richey appeared on TD Ameritrade on December 4, 2018.

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Sevens Report’s Co-Editor & Commodities Analyst Tyler Richey appeared on TD Ameritrade on December 4, 2018. Watch the entire clip here.

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye appeared in Yahoo Finance on November 23, 2018

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye appeared in Yahoo Finance on November 23, 2018. His take on oil, market volatility, stocks and more. Watch the entire clip here.

Technical Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Update
  • Economic Data Recap
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update

US futures are down roughly 0.5% this morning thanks to soft earnings after the close yesterday, most notably by NVDA (the company’s shares fell nearly 20% overnight). Otherwise it was a relatively quiet night of news.

Oil is up over 1% this morning on optimism surrounding a potential OPEC-cut, but serious technical damage has been done on the charts this week, and right now, the medium term outlook is neutral at best for energy.

Economically, the only data point released overnight was Eurozone HICP which matched estimates at 2.2% y/y and is not materially affecting the euro or longer term outlook for the ECB.

Today, there is one important economic report to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and two Fed speakers: Clarida before the open (8:30 a.m. ET) and Evans just before lunch (11:30 a.m. ET).

Otherwise, focus will be on tech shares today as if the bad earnings from NVDA weigh on the sector more broadly, then stocks will have a hard time extending yesterday’s bounce.

On the charts, yesterday’s close of 2730 in the S&P is an important level to watch as a close above would be a positive development for the near term technical outlook.