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The reality of the trade war won’t be as bad as feared back in early April

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The reality of the trade war won’t be as bad as feared back in early April: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Where is the ’Trump Put’ now? Analyst weighs in

According to Sevens Report analysts, that rebound is largely thanks to easing fears around trade war escalation and renewed optimism from the Trump administration.

“The reality of the trade war won’t be as bad as feared back in early April,” Sevens wrote, citing a larger-than-expected U.S.-China tariff reduction and “lots of Trump ‘happy talk’ on trade” involving potential deals with the U.K., South Korea, Japan, and India.

But Sevens cautioned investors not to mistake this relief rally for a sustainable bull run. “While I’m enjoying this morning’s rally I remain skeptical this news can push the S&P 500 sustainably towards (or above) 6,000,” the note said.

The more important takeaway, according to the firm, is that the so-called “Trump Put” — the idea that Trump will pivot policy to support markets if stocks fall far enough — appears to have moved higher.

“Markets freaked out in early April because, in part, investors feared the Trump Put wouldn’t occur until the S&P 500 was well in the 4,000s,” Sevens explained. “But the past few weeks implied the Trump Put kicks in somewhere in the mid-to-low 5,000s.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on May 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Where is the Trump Put Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where is the Trump Put Now?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Stagflation Update (Real Risk or Not?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI Tuesday, Key Growth Data on Thursday

Futures are surging (up more than 2%) on larger than expected tariff reduction between the U.S. and China.

The U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% while China cut tariffs on U.S. imports to just 10%, significantly de-escalating the global trade war.

The tariff reduction will be in effect for 90 days while negotiations occur on a longer-term trade solution.

There are no notable economic reports today and just one Fed speaker, Kugler at 10:25 a.m. ET and she shouldn’t move markets.  So, markets will be driven by trade commentary and the tone around the U.S./China de-escalation.  Given upward momentum, more trade happy talk will help extend the rally.

 

Can the Rally Keep Going?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Rally Keep Going?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Fed Signal a June Rate Cut?  (And What Does Trump Do If Not?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Signs of Slowing Growth?

Futures are moderately lower on digestion of Friday’s rally and following more tariff threats from President Trump.

President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on movies made outside the U.S., reminding investors that tariff risks remain elevated.

Oil prices are down 1% after OPEC+ increased output by 411k bbls/day starting in July (Saudi Arabia is trying to increase market share and that’s driving oil prices lower).

Today focus will be on the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.2) and if that number drops solidly below 50, we will see economic anxiety rise (the stronger this number, the better).

Earnings season is practically over but there are still some notable reports to watch, including: ON ($0.51) and PLTR ($0.08).

Jobs Report Preview: Recession Risks Rising?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: Recession Risks Rising?

Futures are sharply higher on strong earnings overnight.

META (up 6% pre-market) and MSFT (up 9% pre-market) both beat estimates and posted strong guidance and that’s helping futures rally.

Economically, the only notable report was UK Manufacturing PMI, which beat estimates (45.4 vs. (E) 44.0).

Today will be an important day for economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the two key reports today are Jobless Claims (E: 221K) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.9).  The stronger these reports are, the better for stocks as they’ll push back on slowdown fears.

On the earnings front, AMZN ($1.35) and AAPL ($1.61) are the most important reports (both after the close) but there are several other notable earnings as well: LLY ($3.52), CVS ($1.67), MA ($3.57).

The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’

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The scales are tipped in favor of the May-Sellers: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg

Old Wisdom of ‘Sell in May’ Back in Focus as Stock Market Churns

“The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’ this year,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, adding that the risks are skewed toward the S&P 500 suffering another big decline next month.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Reading Market Volatility: If, Then.

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Reading Market Volatility:  If, Then…

Futures are little changed despite solid earnings overnight and more signs of trade war de-escalation.

GOOGL posted stronger than expected results and tech earnings broadly last night were solid, boosting the sector.

On trade, China exempted several categories of U.S. imports from 125% tariffs in a further small de-escalation of trade tensions.

Trade headlines will continue to dominate intra-day trading today but there’s also a notable economic report this morning via University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 50.8).  The key part of this report will be the inflation expectations and estimates are as follows: One Year Inflation Expectations: 6.7%, Five-Year Inflation Expectations 4.4%.  If the actual data is hotter than those estimates, it will put upward pressure on yields and could weigh on stocks.

On earnings, results so far have been better than expected and that has helped this rally.  Notable results today include: ABBV ($2.40),  CHTR ($8.53) and PSX ($-0.77).

Is Silver Set to Breakout?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Silver Set to Breakout?

Futures are modestly weaker on digestion of this week’s rally and on mildly disappointing trade news.

Chinese officials stated there were no ongoing trade talks with the U.S. and again called for the removal of tariffs, pushing back on the “progress” narrative of the past few days.

Focus today will be on economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports today include Durable Goods (E: 1.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.12 million) and if this “hard” data remains solid it will push back against slowdown concerns.    There is also one Fed speaker, Kashkari (5:00 p.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, the key reports today include GOOGL ($2.02), INTC ($-0.14) and PG ($1.54).  For GOOGL and INTC, guidance will be key while investors will wait to see the impact of tariffs on PG’s quarter.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard (Hard Data Holding Up)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Hard Data Is Hanging in There

U.S. stock futures are solidly higher this morning with mega-cap tech leading while bonds are stabilizing after President Trump dialed back rhetoric about firing Fed Chair Powell and made encouraging comments on trade deal progress while TSLA is up 6%+ after Q1 earnings.

Economically, the EU Composite Flash PMI fell to 50.1 vs. (E) 50.4,in April down from 50.9 in March amid weakness in the Services index but investors are taking the disappointing data in stride, instead focusing on the reported trade deal progress.

Today, economic data in the U.S. will be in focus early in the day with the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.4) and Flash Services PMI (E: 52.5), as well as New Home Sales (E: 682K) data due to be released shortly after the open.

There are also multiple Fed speakers to watch today including: Goolsbee (9:00 a.m. ET), Waller (9:35 a.m. ET), and Hammack later in the day (6:30 p.m. ET).

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact bond markets and in turn move stocks in the early afternoon. The stronger the auction results the better after the recent rout in Treasuries.

Finally earnings season continues with notable releases due out from: BA ($-1.54), T ($0.52), IBM ($1.42), and CMG ($0.28).

Bitcoin’s 2025 downtrend line was violated earlier this month

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Bitcoin’s 2025 downtrend line was violated earlier this month: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Bitcoin could rise back toward $100,000 if this happens, as dollar and stocks fall while gold rises

From the technical perspective, bitcoin’s 2025 downtrend line was violated earlier this month while the relative strength index, a momentum indicator, showed a bullish divergence, according to Tyler Richey, technical analyst and co-editor at the Sevens Report. It suggests that bitcoin may see a rise back toward $100,000 if the market can break above its highs in late March at near $88,000, Richey said. 

Bitcoin Chart

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bull vs. Bear: Which Argument Makes More Sense?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bull vs. Bear:  Which Argument Makes More Sense?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will There Be Any Tariff Relief?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Focus Turns to Inflation (CPI on Thursday)

Futures are sharply lower again (down close to 2%) as there was no meaningful tariff relief over the weekend while administration officials reiterated their support for the current tariff policy.

Trump, Bessent and Lutnick all downplayed the market declines and doubled down on the current tariff policy.

On tariff relief, Vietnam, Japan, the UK and others expressed a desire to negotiate tariffs lower, but nothing concrete occurred.

Today focus will remain on tariff headlines and any headlines that imply tariff relief could cause a sharp rebound, given the intensity of the recent declines.  There is one Fed speaker today, Kugler (10:30 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.