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Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations

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Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil prices end mixed as traders weigh demand prospects, Middle East risks

“Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations, a strengthening dollar, and subsequent worries about the sustainability of economic growth in a high-rate/strong-dollar environment, are acting as headwinds on global oil prices,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. He added that the “simmering geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran is simultaneously keeping a fear-bid in the market.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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What Makes The Pullback Worse?

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What Makes The Pullback Worse? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes The Pullback Worse?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Earnings and Growth Data Stabilize Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Growth focus early in the week, important inflation report on Friday.

Futures are enjoying a modest rebound following a quiet weekend of news and ahead of an important week of earnings (especially in tech).

There are major tech earnings this week (TSLA, META, GOOG, MSFT) and tech stocks are bouncing this morning ahead of those reports.

There was no notable economic or geo-political news over the weekend.

This is a potentially busy week of economic data and earnings but it starts slowly, as today there’s only one economic report,  Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: 0.05), and that’s unlikely to move markets.

On earnings, the importance of the results increases this week.  Results we’re watching today include:  VZ ($1.12), TFC ($0.78), NUE ($3.62).

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What Has Really Changed In This Market?

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What Has Really Changed In This Market? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Thoughts on the Israeli Strike in Iran
  • What Has Really Changed In This Market?
  • Oil Market:  Technicals vs. Fundamentals

Futures are moderately lower as Israel conducted a limited strike in Iran while NFLX guidance disappointed.

Israel struck an Iranian military base in response to the weekends’ drone attack, but the operation was small and viewed as an effort to de-escalate the situation.

NFLX posted strong earnings but mixed guidance and the stock is down 6% pre-market.

Today there are no economic reports and only one Fed speaker, Goolsbee at 10:30 a.m. ET, and on the dovish side of the spectrum so barring a hawkish tone from him, he shouldn’t move markets.

On the earnings front, results early in the season have been a bit disappointing and focus on earnings will increase (especially next week).  This market needs better results to help stabilize.  Earnings we’re watching today include:  AXP ($2.97), PG ($1.42) and SLB ($0.74).

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Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen deterioration on multiple fronts

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Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen deterioration on multiple fronts: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Nasdaq Off Lows as Bond Yields Pull Back

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s in a phone interview that markets had a rosy outlook two weeks ago as traders bet on solid growth, stable yields, and hopes of near-term rate cuts.

“Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen deterioration on multiple fronts,” Essaye says. “Yields are now much higher, the Fed is not going to cut nearly as much as expected, and geopolitical risks are now bubbling up again.”

Essaye believes higher yields and worries that the Federal Reserve will turn to fewer rate cuts than expected has been the biggest problem for markets.

“The market was extremely aggressive on valuation, and central to that valuation is the idea of Fed rate cuts and lowered yields,” Essaye says. “Because that has been removed, the valuation for markets must come down. And that’s exactly what’s happening.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 16th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tensions remain elevated between Israel and Hamas

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Tensions remain elevated between Israel and Hamas: Sevens Report Analysts, Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil prices finish higher on talk of potential for Iran strike on Israel

“Bottom line, tensions remain elevated between Israel and Hamas and while ceasefire talks are as close as they have been yet, there remain risks of further escalation and a contagion effect in the region, particularly with Iran who recently threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which sees about 1/5th of the world’s seaborne oil trade flow through it,” said analysts in Sevens Report Research’s Wednesday newsletter.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 10th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

The surging Vix briefly pushed the value of front-month Vix futures contracts

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The surging Vix briefly pushed the value of front-month Vix futures contracts: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Iran-Israel fears sink stocks as traders rush to gold, Treasury bonds

The surging Vix briefly pushed the value of front-month Vix futures contracts expiring later this month above that of contracts expiring in May, causing the Vix futures curve to become inverted for the first time since February, according to Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research.

An inverted Vix futures curve is a sign that traders are bracing for stocks to continue sliding in the weeks ahead, Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 12th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart

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A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart
  • Dip-Buying Becomes Riskier in Late-Cycle Environments
  • Housings Starts Plunge in March – Chart

Futures are higher this morning as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense but stable, inflation data was largely as-expected, and good consumer-focused earnings are helping offset soft sales from chip-maker ASML.

Economically, EU Core CPI met estimates at 2.9% while the U.K.’s Core CPI figure was “warm” at 4.2% vs. (E) 4.1% but neither report is materially impacting the general “higher for longer” central bank policy stance in place right now.

There are no notable economic reports today and just two late-day Fed speakers: Mester (5:30 p.m. ET), Bowman (7:15 p.m. ET).

That will leave trader focus on the Treasury’s 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as weak demand would add upward pressure on yields and pressure stocks.

Additionally, earnings season continues with TRV ($4.75), CFG ($0.75), CSX ($0.45), and DFS ($2.98) reporting today, however, none of those names should have a significant impact on the broader market unless there is a glaring disappointment or upside surprise.

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How Bad Was Last Week for the Rally?

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How Bad Was Last Week for the Rally? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Initial Thoughts on the Iranian Strikes on Israel
  • How Bad Was Last Week for the Rally
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Growth Metrics in Focus

Stock futures are rebounding modestly from Friday’s steep selloff as geopolitical developments from the weekend were not as bad as feared leaving focus on the start to Q1 earnings season and key economic data this week.

Geopolitically, Iran attacked Israel with a series of well-telegraphed drone and missile strikes over the weekend, but most were intercepted. There were limited casualties and little damage so the situation is seen as “contained” for now, however, a retaliatory strike by Israel would be a negative development for risk assets.

Looking into today’s session, there are two important investment bank earnings reports due out ahead of the bell: GS ($8.54) and SCHW ($0.73). following Friday’s disappointing results from other major banks including JPM, investors will want to see good numbers.

Economically, we get several important data points today including the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -5.1), Retail Sales (E: 0.4%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 51). Data needs to come in Goldilocks, especially, Retail Sales as the last two reports missed estimates and have raised concerns about the health of the consumer. Otherwise selling pressure is likely to pick up again today.

Finally, there are two Fed officials speaking today: Williams (8:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (8:00 p.m. ET). Any less hawkish tone will be welcomed while “higher for longer” commentary will be negative for stocks and bonds (yields higher).

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What Does the Hot CPI Report Mean for Markets

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What Does the Hot CPI Report Mean for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does the Hot CPI Report Mean for Markets?
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower and extending yesterdays’ declines ahead of more inflation readings and following disappointing Chinese economic data.

China’s CPI rose less than expected (0.1% vs. (E) 0.5%) and in China that’s a negative as deflation remains a major risk in that slow-growth economy.

Geopolitically, U.S. officials have warned about an imminent Iranian retaliation against Israel either directly or via proxy groups.

Today will be another busy day of events and following the hot CPI, today’s PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.3% y/y) will be in focus. If it rises more than expected, look for higher yields and lower stock prices.  Conversely, if PPI is lower than expected it should deliver a bit of relief and potentially cause a bounce in stocks (and decline in yields).  Other notable events today include the ECB Rate Decision (E: No Change) and Jobless Claims (E: 215k).

Finally, there three Fed speakers today:  Williams (8:45 a.m.), Barkin (10:00 a.m.), Bostic (1:30 p.m.).  If they push back on rate cut hopes following yesterday’s CPI expect more pressure on stocks and if they are partially dismissive of it, expect a rebound.

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Geopolitical factors remain the primary influence on the oil market

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Geopolitical factors remain the primary influence on the oil market: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil prices fall, but settle above lows, as traders monitor Middle East risks

Geopolitical factors remain the “primary influence on the oil market,” and news that Israel was withdrawing some troops from parts of Gaza was seen as a step toward de-escalation in its military conflict with Hamas, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

Also, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly announced that a date has been set for an invasion of Rafah, which has been a “hotly contested issue in the ongoing talks between Israel and Hamas,” said Richey.

“The initial perception of improving geopolitical dynamics between Israel and Hamas initially weighed on oil prices [Monday], but renewed uncertainties about the potential for the military conflict to intensify” saw much of the early losses recovered before the close, Richey noted.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published by MSN on April 9th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.