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Pullback Update: What Makes It Better, What Makes It Worse

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback Update: What Makes It Better, What Makes It Worse?

Futures are showing signs of stabilizing in pre-market trade as investors await fresh (but delayed) economic data, the October Fed meeting minutes, and critical NVDA earnings.

Economically, U.K. and EU CPI/HICP reports met estimates which is helping to quell worries about a resurgence in global inflation pressures.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic releases that will be in focus early: Housing Starts (1.330M), International Trade (E: $-61.0B) as well as a pair of Treasury auctions mid-day: 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET) and 20-Yr Bonds (1:00 p.m. ET).

Regarding the Fed, there are two noteworthy speakers on the calendar today: Miran (10:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (2:00 p.m. ET) and the October FOMC meeting minutes will be released mid-afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET). The more dovish for markets, the better for stocks.

Finally, there are multiple noteworthy earnings releases today including TGT ($1.76), TJX ($1.22), LOW ($2.97), NVDA ($1.18), PANW ($0.50), however, NVDA results are widely considered to be the most important catalyst of the week as any disappointment could amplify the recent selling pressure and weigh heavily on big-tech, equities more broadly, and risk assets in general.

 

Your Guide to Fund Distribution Estimates

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why It’s Important to Review Fund Distribution Estimates
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures are in the red, but off session lows as traders digest yesterday’s selloff ahead of the release of multiple delayed economic reports and NVDA earnings in the back half of the week.

There were no notable economic reports or material market moving headlines overnight.

Today, there are multiple economic reports due to be released but only some will actually “print” due to the lingering effects from the government shutdown. They include Import Prices (E: -0.1% m/m), Industrial Production (E: -0.1%), Housing Market Index (E: 37), and Factory Orders (E: 1.4%).

Additionally, there are a couple Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barr (10:30 a.m. ET), and Barkin (11:00 a.m. ET) and more late-season earnings due to be released including: HD ($3.81), BIDU ($0.91), BRBR ($0.54), SQM ($0.68).

In order for markets to stabilize, markets will be looking for solid economic data trends, less-hawkish Fed chatter, and strong earnings numbers. Otherwise, the selling pressure could continue into the critical release of Q3 earnings from NVDA tomorrow.

 

Can the Rest of the Market Rally If Tech Is Weak?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Rest of the Market Rally If Tech is Weak?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can AI Enthusiasm Rebound? (NVDA Earnings on Wednesday Are Key)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The First Look at November Data (Flash PMIs on Friday)

Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rebound and following a quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there was positive news as the White House confirmed reduced tariffs on numerous food products as it aims to boost affordability.

Economically, the only notable report was Italian CPI which rose 1.3%, as expected.

Today we have the first economic report for November, Empire Manufacturing (6.10), and numerous Fed speakers.  Williams (9:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (3:35 p.m. ET) are the most important speakers today but we will also hear from Jefferson (9:30 a.m. ET), Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and Logan (7:55 p.m. ET).  Bottom line, if Empire manufacturing is stable and the tone of Fed speak today is open to a December cut (especially from Williams and Waller) that should help extend Friday’s rebound.