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Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s


Nasdaq Loses Steam as Stocks Give Back Some Earlier Gains

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released median inflation expectations from its January survey that were unchanged at the one- and five-year ahead horizons. But three-year expectations fell to 2.4% from 2.6%.

“That will make the Fed more confident in cutting rates and amidst an other wise quiet day, that’s what’s driving this market,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on February 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

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Markets Have Aggressively Priced In No Recession Or Slowdown

Markets Have Aggressively Priced In No Recession Or Slowdown: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com


Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Eyeing record highs

“Markets have aggressively priced in no recession or slowdown, but that’s premature. The economy could easily slow and there are some signals slowing growth is happening,” analysts at Sevens Report said.

Sevens Report analysts: “For this rally to continue, we can’t have economic data suddenly start to miss expectations, because now that the Fed has made its dovish pivot, it can’t help markets if worries about an economic slowdown rise. That’s why we’re watching economic data closely at the start of the year.”

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on December 18th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table: December Update

Market Multiple Table: December Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – December Update (Unbranded Copy Available)
  • Chart – 10-Yr Yield Violates Long-Term Uptrend, 2023 Lows in Focus

Stock futures are slightly higher and bond yields are falling modestly this morning. This is as traders digest a dovish BOJ decision and largely in-line Eurozone inflation report.

The Bank of Japan left their benchmark policy rate unchanged at -0.10%. With no hint of a January rate hike sending the yen down >1% and the Nikkei up nearly 1.5% overnight.

Economically, the Eurozone HICP Narrow-Core inflation rate favorably fell from 4.2% to 3.6% last month, meeting estimates.

Looking at today’s potential market catalysts, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.360 million), and two Fed officials are to speak: Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (6:00 p.m. ET).

Lastly, as long as the housing market data is not a big shock, the release shouldn’t move markets this morning while Bostic’s comments will be closely watched to see if he joins Daly and others from the Fed in acknowledging concerns about the labor market (which would add a dovish tailwind).

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Bull vs. Bear Case: Part II

Bull vs. Bear Case: Part II: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Bull Case vs. The Bear Case – Part II
  • Chart – Gold Breaks Out to the Upside
  • Consumer Confidence Data Points to Soft Landing

Stock futures are tracking European equities higher this morning while the 10-Yr Note yield is below 4.30% at two month lows following less-hawkish ECB commentary and more evidence of disinflation in the Eurozone.

Economically, Spanish CPI fell to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.7% y/y while multiple regional German inflation prints suggest headline German CPI will come in well below the 3.5% estimate later this morning.

The ECB’s Stournaras notably said in commentary early this morning that rate cuts could come as soon as the middle of next year which saw more policy easing priced into rates futures markets in Europe and invited new bids into the bond markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are two domestic economic reports to watch this morning: GDP (E: 4.9%) and International Trade in Goods (E: -$86.7B) while there is just one Fed speaker in the afternoon: Mester (1:45 p.m. ET).

Bottom line, the early bid in the U.S. equity futures market and new lows in bond yields are being driven by cooler-than-expected inflation data in the EU, so it will be critical for the German CPI report to come in below estimates of 3.5% when the data is released at 8:00 a.m. ET. If so, expect the dovish rally to extend into Wall Street trading today.

Bull vs. Bear Case: Part II


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Core PCE Reading Was Inline With Expectations

Core PCE Reading Was Inline With Expectations: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s


S&P 500 Joins Nasdaq in Correction Territory

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the core PCE reading was inline with expectations but didn’t eliminate the risk of inflation rebounding.

He added that Amazon and Intel’s earnings didn’t outweigh what has been a bad week overall.

“And, while there’s progress in Washington, markets won’t celebrate the Republicans being able to finally elect a speaker, and there’s still the prospect of a government shutdown looming,” Essaye added.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on October 28th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 28th, 2023

Stocks Open Higher Ahead of Busy Week for Economic Data

“This week will be more important than it appeared it would when we started August because of last week’s surprisingly soft flash PMIs, as there is a lot of important economic data this week,” argued Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. If it confirms that the economy is losing momentum and a hard landing is more likely than previously thought, it will pressure stocks,” he added.

Click here to read the full article.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on July 3rd, 2023

Stocks Tick Lower to Start Holiday-Shortened Session

“At this point, and with yields this high, markets need to see solid data and that means the ISM Manufacturing PMI moving closer towards 50 and beating expectations,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on June 20th, 2023

Dow Tanks 250 Points—And Some Experts Warn More Pain May Be On Deck

At that price, the S&P is aggressively pricing in a lot of good things occurring and virtually zero negative surprises, Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote Tuesday. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Swissinfo.ch on May 30th, 2023

“Yes, AI does have great potential and it does appear to be the ‘next big thing’,” wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. “But I don’t see how that promise can offset the reality of higher interest rates and more pressure on the economy, at least not for a sustainable period.” Click here to read the full article.

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Special Technical Analysis Report

What’s in Today’s Technical Report:

  • Near and Medium-Term Trends and Risks in the S&P 500
  • A Look at Current Dynamics in the Major U.S. Equity Indices
  • Dow Theory Update
  • Key Levels to Watch in the Dollar and Commodity Markets
  • Equity Sector Dashboard (Bullish – Bearish – Neutral)
  • Treasury Market Trend Analysis: Have Rates Peaked for the Cycle?
  • What to Watch in the VIX

S&P 500 futures are little changed to start the week this morning. Last week’s pullback paused at a longer standing, multi-week uptrend line leaving the broader equity at a tipping point. How the market trades today will very likely decide if the S&P will continue to bleed lower or break last week’s downtrend and retest the recent highs.

The Nasdaq has been a notable outperformer this year but there are cracks emerging in the rally and we outline key levels to watch this week within the Report.

Among the sectors, we view five sectors as trending higher, four as market neutral, and two as trending lower.

In the currency and bond markets, both the dollar and multiple benchmark Treasury Notes have pulled back to critical price support zones and whether those levels hold or not will have a varying impact on all asset classes.

Commodities as an asset class have been fluctuating in a tight range in 2023 with gold outperforming and oil underperforming, but there are signs that oil is poised to take the lead in the complex and gold may be losing upside momentum.

Finally, the VIX is still deeply under pressure which is confusing many investors but we dive into the specific reasons for the movement in the index and what to look for in the weeks and months ahead as we continue to navigate this historically difficult market backdrop amid very uncertain macroeconomic dynamics.