Bitcoin’s moves definitely follow the market. There’s no question, and that’s been especially true on days when the market has been down a lot, Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, told Barron’s. Click here to read the full article.
This is exactly what the Fed wants, The question is how quickly do we lose momentum and a slowing of growth becomes an outright contraction…said Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, of the slower momentum in manufacturing. Click here to read the full article.
Numbers this strong would likely reverse any hopes the Fed would consider a pause in rate hikes after the June/July increases because it would signal the labor market remains very tight…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report told CNBC. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following a soft EU inflation reading and on reports, OPEC members may increase oil production.
Euro Zone PPI undershot expectations (1.2% vs. (E) 2.3%) offering some hope that inflation in the EU is peaking.
Oil is down 2.5% after Saudi Arabia said it may increase oil production to make up for any Russian shortfall.
Today’s focus will be on the economic and inflation data including, in order of importance: ADP Employment Report (E: 240k), Unit Labor Costs (E: 11.6%), and Jobless Claims (E: 210k). If the data is “Goldilocks” then this early rally can continue. Finally, there are two Fed speakers today, Logan (12:00 p.m. ET) and Mester (1:00 p.m. ET), with the latter more important (and if she’s hawkish that will weigh on sentiment).
While major stock market indexes plunged as much as 2% Tuesday, analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report warned clients he remains “cautious” on the S&P 500 as stocks struggle to stabilize, pointing to “relentless selling” on Friday as a potential predecessor to a sharp downturn of as much as 5%. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower on concerns about economic growth as COVID cases rose again in China while hopes for a diplomatic solution in Ukraine have all but faded.
China is continuing with its “zero COVID” policy and with cases rising again markets are fearing more shutdowns, perhaps in Beijing, which is a negative for global growth.
Russian President Putin essentially eliminated a diplomatic solution to the war, ensuring a further drawn-out conflict, which will also be a headwind on global growth.
Today there are no economic reports and no notable Fed speakers, but worries about global growth are the reason stocks dropped last week, so markets need some positive news on growth to stabilize in the near term.
On the earnings front, this is a very important week and while the most important reports don’t come out until later this week, two reports we’ll be watching today are KO ($0.58) and WHR ($4.90).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower following Thursday’s reversal lower as economic data and earnings were mixed overnight.
April global flash PMIs were mixed as the EU data was solid (55.8 vs. (E) 53.9), but the UK data was soft (57.6 vs. (E) 59.0). UK retail sales also badly missed (-1.4% vs. (E) -0.3%) and the lackluster data is weighing on European shares.
Earnings overnight were “ok” although SNAP underwhelmed investors (so expect more pressure on tech).
Today focus will be on economic data via the April Flash Composite PMI (E: 57.5) and markets will want to see stability in the data to further ward off stagflation concerns.
On the earnings front, there are only a few notable reports today (and all are in the morning): VZ ($1.35), AXP ($2.43), SLB ($0.32).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher despite negative COVID headlines and a mixed outlook for China’s economy.
New COVID cases topped 1 million and set a record for a second day Tuesday as the highly contagious, but less severe Omicron variant continues to rip through hot spots around the globe. But for now, few nations have implemented new lockdowns allowing investors to look past the latest surge in cases.
According to Bloomberg Economics, China’s economy grew this month but property sector risks remain a key concern and that weighed on Asian shares overnight.
Today, there are two economic reports due out: International Trade in Goods (E: -$86.0B), and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.6%) but once again, neither should move markets as they should not shift the outlook for monetary policy.
There are no Fed speakers today but there is a 7-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. If the auction is weak and yields rise materially, that could add pressure to higher valuation sectors of the market like tech/Nasdaq and drag the broader equity markets lower in thin holiday trading today. Otherwise, the Santa Claus rally remains in effect and the path of least resistance does still remain higher given the recent records in the S&P 500.
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What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. futures are rebounding with global shares after the U.K. decided against new lockdown measures due to Omicron while there is renewed hope for Biden’s spending bill.
Reports of a late Sunday call between Biden and Manchin, after Manchin announced that he would not support the bill on live TV, have revived hopes for the potential passage of Build Back Better in the weeks ahead.
The German GfK Consumer Climate Index fell to -6.8 vs. (E) -2.5 for January which points to a further deterioration in consumers’ outlook for income and spending in Europe’s largest economy.
There are no economic reports and no Fed officials speak today which will leave traders focused on the political drama surrounding Build Back Better and any new developments about Omicron and subsequent economic lockdown measures.
The one potential catalyst on the calendar is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. A weak auction could send yields higher which could add renewed pressure on high multiple tech names and cause the major indexes to roll over.
While the market will likely remain volatile near term, there’s no reason yet to think that stocks can’t….says Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
