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Is the Tariff Announcement A Bearish Gamechanger?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Tariff Announcement A Bearish Gamechanger?
  • Jobs Report Preview

Global markets are sharply lower as S&P 500 futures fall three percent in response to President Trump’s worse than feared reciprocal tariff announcement.

President Trump announced baseline 10% tariffs on virtually all imports and dramatically higher tariffs on numerous major trading partners, dramatically intensifying the global trade war and spiking global recession concerns.

Today focus will remain on trade and any hint that the announced tariffs could be negotiated lower will help stocks bounce, while the administration dismissing negotiations will only add more downward pressures to markets.

Away from trade, there are several important economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 226K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0).  If those numbers disappoint, the selling will get worse as recession fears surge.  Finally, there are two Fed speakers today, Jefferson (12:30 p.m. ET) and Cook (3:30 p.m. ET), although they shouldn’t move markets.

The name is still too expensive to buy, Essaye said

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The name is still too expensive to buy: Tom Essaye Quoted on Yahoo Finance

Palantir (PLTR) Is Called Too Expensive by Schwab Guests

Similarly, Essaye said that PLTR should be examined “in a context of reasonable valuation.” Although the shares are down a great deal from their highs, the name is still too expensive to buy, Essaye said. He added that the stock is being pressured by worries over the AI sector and fears about lower spending on contracts by Washington.

“Federal contracts are a large part of the company’s business,” Essaye noted.

Expressing his view of PLTR more bluntly, Essaye said that it “can continue to decline,” adding that it would have to drop a great deal more before he would “become interested” in it.

“It’s a good company, but it’s so richly valued that it can fall quite a bit more before value buyers step in,” he warned.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Yahoo Finance published on April 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is the Bond Market Warning About an Economic Slowdown?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Bond Market Warning About an Economic Slowdown?

Markets are trading with a risk-off tone to start Q2 this morning with equity futures modestly lower while safe-haven Treasuries and gold rally as traders look ahead to the Trump administration’s looming tariff announcements.

Economically, China’s March Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 vs. (E) 50.6.

In Europe, the March Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.6 vs. (E) 48.7, Narrow Core HICP fell to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.6% y/y, and the UE Rate fell to 6.1% vs. (E) 6.2%.

The mostly encouraging global economic data overnight is helping drive overseas equity markets higher this morning despite the weakness in U.S. futures.

Looking into today’s session, a busy week of domestic economic data releases kicks off with the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.6) and JOLTS (E: 7.6 million) both due to be released shortly after the bell.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET). Investors will be looking for a dovish tone from Barkin and “Goldilocks” economic data with stable growth and evidence of cooling or at least steady inflation pressures.

 

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today

Our Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)… and
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis.

You can view our Q4 ’24 Quarterly Letter here. To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.  If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

 

Tariff Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tariff Week
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Tariffs (How Bad Will It Be?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is the U.S. Economy Rolling Over?  (We Get the Big Three Economic Reports This Week)

Futures are sharply lower as articles over the weekend implied the looming tariff announcements could be both chaotic and more far-reaching than previously thought.

The WSJ, Politico, New York Times and others warned the administration’s tariff policy 1) Isn’t yet finalized (raising fears of more policy whiplash) and 2) Is more intense than articles implied last week.

Economically, Chinese economic data was good as March manufacturing and services PMIs both beat estimates.

This week is a potentially pivotal one for markets with Wednesday’s looming tariff announcements and key economic data but it starts slowly as there are no notable reports today.  As such, we can expect tariff preview articles to drive trading (and the more articles point to intense tariffs, the lower stocks will go).

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Composite PMI Flash Takeaways – Another Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are back to flat after trading lower overnight on profit taking as traders digest the latest trade war headlines and subsequent rally off the 2025 stock market lows.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey was mostly upbeat as the headline Business Climate Index firmed to 86.7 vs. (E) 87.0 and Business Expectations jumped to 87.7 vs. (E) 86.8. The solid data is helping support gains in EU markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released starting with a few housing market releases: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.5%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), and New Home Sales (E: 679K).

Then after the open, the most important economic report of the day is due out: Consumer Confidence (E: 94.2) and investors will want to see a less-dismal data set in the survey-based release as the February consumer reports weighed heavily on risk assets.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Williams (9:05 a.m. ET) and a few late-season earnings reports from MKC ($0.64 and GME ($0.09), but neither are likely to move markets today.

 

Sevens Report Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming Next Tuesday

Investor sentiment is literally at all-time lows, markets are volatile, and clients are nervous. Now is the time to remind them that long-term plans can overcome periods of volatility! 

One of the easiest and best ways to do that is with a quarterly letter, and we will be releasing the Q1 2025 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter to subscribers next Tuesday, April 1st. 

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is a turn-key client communications solution. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)…
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis… and
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To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

We should expect continued volatile markets

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Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

Stocks up sharply as tariff angst eases, but traders see more uncertainty ahead

“Until trade and tariff policy are known and consistent and we get a break from the dramatic overhaul of the Federal government, we should expect continued volatile markets and be aware that this pullback likely isn’t over,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on February 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Easing trade war angst

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Easing trade war angst: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Tesla Stock’s 12% Surge Powers Broader Comeback—As Investors Bet Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Won’t Be So Bad

The rally came thanks to “easing trade war angst” on Wall Street, explained Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, referencing Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal’s weekend reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect next week will be far more focused in nature than Trump previously suggested.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Refined-products demand is beginning to slip

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Refined-products demand is beginning to slip: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch

Oil tallies back-to-back gains as Middle East flare-ups lift risk of supply disruption

In the U.S., analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a Thursday newsletter that the most attention-grabbing development in Wednesday’s EIA petroleum report was a “sharp and sudden” drop of 365,000 barrels per day in gasoline supplied, which is a proxy for consumer demand at the pump.

The decline “suggests the trend in refined-products demand is beginning to slip amid growing uncertainty about the economy in 2025,” the Sevens Report analysts said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bullish News for European Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish News for European Stocks
  • Why Did Stocks Drop?
  • Chart: Long-Term Bearish Reversal in Dow Theory

Futures are rebounding from yesterday’s ~1% pullback amid progress towards a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, “cool” inflation data overseas, and trader positioning into the Fed decision this afternoon.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell from 2.5% Y/Y to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% in February, which is being well received by investors in pre-market trade as the Fed decision comes into focus.

There are no notable economic reports today although there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy rate expectations with the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference looming later this afternoon.

The FOMC meeting announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET shortly before Fed Chair Powell’s mid-afternoon press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will almost certainly be the “main event” of the trading session as investors look for clarity on monetary policy outlook given the recent escalation in trade war developments and the subsequent sense of market uncertainty that has come with it.

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are a few consumer-focused companies reporting quarterly results today: WSM ($2.91), GIS ($0.95), and FIVE ($3.38).

The Numbers Inside This Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Numbers Inside This Pullback
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update

Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce on positive trade headlines and decreased shutdown risks.

On trade, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said a meeting with Commerce Secretray Lutnick was “positive” and “productive,” creating some tentative trade optimism.

Elsewhere politically, Democrat minority leader Schumer signaled he’d support funding the government, reducing shutdown chances.

Today focus will stay on trade headlines (of course) while the key economic report today is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (E: 63.1).  Stability in that report will be encouraging for investors.  Markets will also be focused on the One-Year Inflation Expectations, which spiked to 4.3% on tariff fears.  Any decline in that number back towards 3.0% (where it was before tariffs) will be a positive.