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These are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market

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These are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil futures end higher as demand prospects improve

“Price-supportive OPEC+ rhetoric, evidence of strong domestic demand at the start of the U.S. summer driving season, rising geopolitical tensions overseas, and renewed hopes for a perfectly executed soft landing by the [Federal Reserve] are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“Sentiment is fragile, however, and if we see any headlines that contradict any of those factors that have supported the latest rally, or even just an uptick in broad market volatility into the end of the quarter, we could see oil markets correct back towards the mid-$70-a-barrel range,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone

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Investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Are stock-market investors losing faith in ‘immaculate disinflation’?

That’s a sign that investor hopes around “immaculate disinflation” may be coming undone, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note.

While the S&P 500 rallied 1.58% last week, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.25%, the Dow industrials lost 0.54% and RSP (S&P 500 equal weight) declined 0.53%. “The reason the ‘rest’ of the market declined last week was that while disinflation is occurring, it may not be ‘immaculate’ and that’s a potential negative for stocks.,” he wrote.

“Here’s the point: If inflation falls because growth is slowing, that’s not an automatic positive for stocks anymore and we saw that this past week as sectors and stocks that weren’t attached to AI declined, despite the drop in CPI and rising Fed cut expectations,” he wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 17th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Chart: Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets

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Market Multiple Chart: Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart:  Multiple Expansion Lifts Scenario Targets

Futures are solidly higher thanks to a surprise rate cut from the SNB and despite worsening geo-political tensions.

The Swiss National Bank surprisingly cut rates 25 bps, citing easing inflation pressures, as the global rate cut cycle gets underway.

Geo-politically, the leader of Hezbollah threatened Israel with war, underscoring rising tensions between Israel and Lebanon.

Today will be a moderately busy day of data and news.  First, there is a Bank of England Rate Decision and while no change in rates is expected, the BOE may signal it’s ready to cut rates in the next meeting or two.

Economically, there are two important reports today: Jobless Claims (E: 235K) and Philly Fed (E: 5.2).  Given the recent data showing a loss of momentum in economic growth, investors will want to see better than expected readings (while soft readings will strengthen the narrative for slowing growth).

Finally, the parade of Fed speakers continues this week with Kashkari (8:45 a.m. ET) and Barkin (4:00 p.m. ET) but unless one of them openly discuss rate hikes, they shouldn’t move markets.

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Market Multiple Table: Pushing Justifiable Valuations

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Market Multiple Table: Pushing Justifiable Valuations: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June Market Multiple Table – Pushing the Edge of Justifiable Valuations
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways
  • Chart – NVDA Tests Near-Term Uptrend

Futures are little changed as ongoing strength in technology shares offsets weakness in small caps in pre-market trade after mixed economic data overnight.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey missed estimates while the EU’s Narrow Core HICP (Core CPI equivalent) was inline with the May Flash of 2.9%, which was up from 2.7% in April.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with Retail Sales (E: 0.3%) and Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) both due to be released. Investors will be looking for signs of healthy consumer spending but not a figure that is “too hot” (hawkish policy concerns) or “too cold” (growth worries) while steady factory sector data would be welcomed but not as impactful for markets today.

There is also a long list of Fed speakers today. In chronological order, we will hear from: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET), Collins (11:40 a.m. ET), Musalem (1:00 p.m. ET), Logan (1:00 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (2:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and weak demand could send yields higher and weigh on equities in afternoon trade.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview (All About the Dots)

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FOMC Preview (All About the Dots): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview (All About the Dots)

Futures are slightly higher following more solid tech earnings and despite some stagflationary economic data.

ORCL earnings beat estimates and the stock is up 9% pre-market, helping to support stock futures.

Economically, Chinese inflation ran slightly hot while UK Industrial Production badly missed estimates.

Today brings the two key events of the week via CPI and the Fed Decision.  For CPI, estimates are:  E: 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y, Core CPI (0.3% m/m, 3.5% y/y).  The key here is that core CPI is flat or declines from last month.  If we see a bounce back above 3.6% that will likely be a material surprise negative.

For the Fed, there is no change expected to rates and focus at 2:00 will be on the dots (and how much they changed since March).  Anything from the Fed (dots or Powell commentary) that makes a September rate cut more likely will help stocks, while anything that makes it less likely will be a headwind.

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The fall in gasoline supplied last week suggests a near-term peak in demand

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The fall in gasoline supplied last week suggests a near-term peak in demand: Sevens Report Research Analysts, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices post back-to-back gains as worries about economic outlook fade

The fall in gasoline supplied last week below the four-week average suggests a near-term peak in demand, analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a note.

Encouragingly, the four-week average did rise by 37,000 barrels a day to 9.07 million barrels a day, so there’s hope that demand could still be a source of fundamental support, they said, though last week wasn’t a step in that direction, based on the data.

Oil rose Wednesday not so much because of the EIA data, but rather because economic data eased worries about recession, added to expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the fall and boosted hopes for a soft economic landing in the U.S., they wrote.

“The stabilization in oil should be considered fragile, however, as the oil market does not like sources of uncertainty like OPEC+ delivered with last weekend’s production policy decision,” the analysts said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on June 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A bearish-leaning reality that OPEC+

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A  bearish-leaning reality that OPEC+: Sevens Report co-editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil futures settle at lowest since early February

The market’s bullish hopes for some degree of commitment to ‘price stability’ via the potential for further production cuts were dashed, and instead met with a bearish-leaning reality that OPEC+ does not seem willing to cut production any further than they already have despite ongoing recession risks that would cripple demand,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 3rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Traders will be keenly focused on the EIA data

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Traders will be keenly focused on the EIA data: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch

Gasoline demand in focus as oil futures slip

Traders will be keenly focused on the EIA data, particularly its measure of implied gasoline demand, said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note.

The data “could either reinforce the thesis that U.S. demand for fuel at the pump is rebounding into the summer driving season, a trend in line with those from 2021 and 2023 that both matched annual trends of pre-Covid years when demand would peak in the summer, or if we are going to see demand destruction’ due to inflation and elevated prices at the pump like we did in 2022,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on May 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Growing Economic Concerns

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Growing Economic Concerns: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why I am Getting More Concerned About an Economic Slowdown
  • Weekly Economic Preview – A Critical Week of Data

Futures are higher on momentum from Friday’s late-day rally while news wires were mostly quiet this weekend.

Economically, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose from 45.7 to 47.3 vs. (E) 47.4 in May while the UK’s Manufacturing PMI headline rose from 49.1 to 51.2 vs. (E) 51.3. The as-expected data is having a limited impact on markets, leaving stocks to extend Friday’s rally.

Today, focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.8) early with a report on Construction Spending (E: 0.2%) also due out after the open. There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today which leaves the ISM data the key catalysts of the session. A report that is “too hot” or “too cold” could see volatility pick up while a “Goldilocks” number would likely allow Friday’s relief rally to continue.

Finally, the Treasury will hold 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET, and while these auctions don’t typically move markets, we are within 6-months of the first expected rate cuts from the Fed so any surprises could impact yields and in-turn move equities.

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No relation to the recent geopolitical tensions

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No relation to the recent geopolitical tensions: Sevens Report Research Analysts, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices settle lower as traders fret over the outlook for demand

Analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter that the crash was deemed to be “an accident and had no relation to the recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which allowed for some of the fear bids added on Friday ahead of the weekend to come unwound” at the start of Monday’s trading.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on May 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.