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May Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • May Market Multiple Table Update

Stock futures are lower as traders digest yesterday’s sizeable risk-on rally but U.S. futures are off their overnight lows thanks to better than expected global economic data as market focus shifts to today’s CPI release in the U.S.

The Economic Sentiment Index of the German ZEW Survey jumped from -14.0 to +25.2 vs. (E) 0.0 while the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 95.8 vs. (E) 94.7.

Looking into today’s session, trader focus will be on inflation data with CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y) as well as the Core CPI figure (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.8% y/y) due to be released before the bell.

If the inflation report is inline with estimates or “cooler-than-feared,” expect yesterday’s big stock market gains to hold or for stocks to even extend the already sizeable WTD rally on bullish momentum.

Finally, a few noteworthy earnings releases today include: JD ($0.99), HMC ($0.72), and SE ($0.61), however the bulk of the Q1 reporting season is behind us and the market impact should be limited.

Their comments shouldn’t move markets

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Their comments shouldn’t move markets: Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch

It’s a busy day for Fedspeak — but there’s one official worth listening to

“However, unless Williams is hawkish, their comments shouldn’t move markets,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Stocks Rallied Yesterday (It’s Not the U.S./U.K. Trade Deal)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Rallied Yesterday (It’s Not the U.S./U.K. Trade Deal)
  • Trump vs. Powell

Futures are modestly higher and are extending Thursday’s rally on more trade optimism.

Multiple media outlets boosted expectations for tariff relief at this weekend’s U.S./China meeting in Geneva.

Bloomberg and other media outlets are expecting tariffs on Chinese imports to be reduced to 50% or 60% (from the current 145%).

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are several Fed speakers including (in order of importance): Williams (11:30 a.m. ET), Waller (11:30 a.m. ET), Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (10:00 a.m. ET).  However, unless Williams is hawkish, their comments shouldn’t move markets.

Instead, trade anticipation should drive trading today and specifically any “chatter” about expectations for this weekend’s U.S./China trade meeting in Geneva (more optimism will push stocks higher while any negative commentary will pressure them).

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update

Futures are higher on news the U.S. and China will hold preliminary trade talks in Switzerland Saturday which offset soft tech earnings from SMCI as focus turns to the Fed.

Economically, German Manufacturing Orders jumped 3.6% vs. (E) 1.0% while EU Retail Sales fell -0.1% vs. (E) 0.0%.

Looking ahead to the U.S. session, there is one economic report this afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $10.0B), but the data is unlikely to move markets given the afternoon Fed decision.

Trader focus will be on any trade headlines this morning before attention turns to the Fed with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET), and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) mid-afternoon.

There are some more late season earnings releases to watch that could move markets in pre-market/after-hours trade including: UBER ($0.51), DIS ($1.18), GOLD ($0.29), CVNA ($0.75), OXY ($0.73), and CLF ($-0.78).

Bottom line, focus is on the Fed today and while no change in the policy rate is expected, traders will be scrutinizing the meeting statement for any changes regarding economic uncertainty or hints on when the FOMC may lower rates next during Powell’s press conference. The more dovish the language and commentary, the better for equities today.

More S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200-day MAs than their 50-day MAs

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The primary negative influences on copper: Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals Quoted in MarketWatch

More S&P 500 stocks trade below 200-day moving average than 50-day moving average

“The fact that more S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200-day MAs than their 50-day MAs continues to support the case that the rally off the April 2025 lows remains a countertrend move in an otherwise still downward-trending market,” Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals, wrote in a Monday note.

Using the 2022 bear market as a guide, a test of the 50% level in the percentage of S&P 500 companies that are trading above their 200-day moving average “should not come as a surprise ahead of another washout as initial attempts to find a bottom in this bear market commence,” Richey wrote.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways – Resilience Points to Soft Landing

Stock futures are lower thanks to a combination of weak earnings news and disappointing economic data overnight.

On the earnings front, PLTR missed estimates (shares down -8% in premarket trading) while F pulled 2025 guidance noting a tariff impact estimated to be -$2.5B on this year’s earnings.

Economically, China’s Service PMI fell to 50.7 vs. (E) 51.8 in April which dragged the Composite PMI down from 51.8 to 51.1, highlighting the negative impact the global trade war is having on the Chinese economy.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: International Trade Balance (E: -$136.3B). Typically, trade data is now widely followed, however given the trade war, a deeper than anticipated deficit could bolster recession angst.

Moving to the afternoon, the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The outcome of the former could shed light on near-term rate-cut odds while the latter auction could offer insight into growth and inflation expectations.

Finally, some late season earnings are due out today including: MAR ($2.27), CEG ($2.14), AMD ($0.75), SMCI ($0.21), and ET ($0.33).

Bottom line, good economic news and dovish money flows in Treasury auctions could help stabilize markets as the Fed meeting gets underway in Washington which will likely result in a growing sense of “Fed paralysis” as the session progresses today.

The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement

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The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why the stock rally may be in trouble after the White House ‘backtracked’ on tariffs

The U.S. stock market has already priced in backtracking on the large and sweeping “liberation day” tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on April 2, making it difficult for the market to keep up its recent rally, according to Sevens Report Research.

“The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement, including a delay while negotiations take place and exempting major categories of imports,” said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, in a note Monday. As an example of tariff exemptions, Essaye pointed to computer chips, electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles.

“The reality of the past month post-‘liberation day’ hasn’t been as bad as feared and the market has recouped those losses,” said Essaye. “However, I do not think these events are enough to sustainably propel the S&P 500 forward and I am sticking to my general 5,100-5,500-ish range.”

Investors, worried that large tariffs will place a drag on the U.S. economy while increasing the cost of goods for consumers, have been monitoring the White House’s negotiations with its trading partners. But with backtracking on tariffs already priced into the market, Essaye cautioned that “we could even see a ‘sell-the-news’ move once some trade deals are announced.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The primary negative influences on copper

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The primary negative influences on copper: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch

Here’s what this real-time barometer says about tariff-induced recession risks rising

“Recession worries and lack of concrete progress in trade relations between the U.S. and China remain the primary negative influences on copper,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter.

They said the “primary trend in copper is not one of higher or lower prices, but of volatility, which highlights trade-war uncertainty and an elevated sense of angst among global investors.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Wildcard to Watch: Legal Challenges to Trump’s Tariffs

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Wildcard to Watch: Legal Challenges to Trump’s Tariffs
  • The “Rest of the Market” Continues to Outperform – Chart

Stock futures are wavering between gains and losses this morning as traders digest potential tariff relief for auto imports and position into more mega-cap earnings reports.

Economically, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index rose to -20.6 vs. (E) -25.5, helping German markets outperform with the DAX up ~0.75% this morning.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-142.0B), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.7%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%), Consumer Confidence (E: 87.5), and JOLTS (E: 7.464 million) data all due to be released.

Earnings season also continues today with noteworthy companies reporting results including: PYPL ($1.15), UPS ($1.42), KO ($0.71), V ($2.68), and SBUX ($0.49).

How much economic damage have tariffs done?

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How much economic damage have tariffs done?: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Is the stock market overvalued? Investors look for ‘economic damage’ from tariffs

Investors are hoping trade deals that reduce tariffs may be announced soon, which would help inform whether the U.S. stock market is currently overvalued, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

“‘How much economic damage have tariffs done?’ is one of the most important questions for investors right now because if the answer is ‘a lot,’ then this market is still substantially overvalued,” Essaye said in a note Monday. “If the answer is ‘not too much’ and tariff reduction occurs, then the case can be made for a sustainable rally (as long as we get consistent policy).”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.