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Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines

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Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why markets are ignoring scary headlines about Iran, trade wars and U.S. debt

Strategist Tom Essaye explained why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines in the Sevens Report, his daily market-strategy note.

However, Iran’s military capabilities have been so degraded, Essaye wrote, that Tehran’s ability to respond to Israel’s missile strikes and to counter its overall military superiority is severely inhibited.

According to Essaye, tariff fatigue has caused complacency to set in. There are too many headlines and deadlines for the average investor to follow accurately, and markets now routinely dismiss Trump’s ultimatums as bluff and bluster, as evidenced by the recent coinage “TACO,” or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The next significant deadline is July 9, the end of the 90-day pause in the imposition of Trump’s tariffs, and at that time markets may well reassess their current phlegmatic approach. Right now, however, Essaye believes that “markets are so [convinced about] TACO that it’s going to take a sustained tariff increase to shake the belief.”

After recently piercing the 5% level, though, 30-year Treasury bonds have rallied, implying that investors are not yet sufficiently worried about the U.S. fiscal situation to sell off Treasury bonds aggressively, Essaye wrote.

“If the 10-year yield begins to creep towards and through 5.00%, that will be a signal that the global bond markets are starting to worry about the U.S. fiscal situation and at that point, markets will care about deficits and debt, a lot! (and we should expect stocks to be sharply lower),” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What is the Shadow Fed?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is the Shadow Fed?

Futures are modestly lower as geopolitical concerns offset more strong tech earnings.

Geo-politically, multiple news outlets reported that Israel is preparing for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which is boosting gold prices and weighing on global markets.

Oracle (ORCL) beat earnings on continued robust demand for AI infrastructure (the stock is up 7% pre-market).

Today focus will be on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 243K) and PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y).  Claims have ticked higher in the last few weeks and if that continues, it will slightly increase economic anxiety and (slightly) pressure stocks.  On inflation, PPI is viewed as a loose leading indicator of CPI so if PPI can remain subdued, it’ll boost confidence inflation remains under control.

Finally, notable tech earnings continue today with ADBE ($4.01).

Any materially positive or negative trade-talk headlines could meaningfully move markets

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Any materially positive or negative trade-talk headlines could meaningfully move markets: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in Swissinfo.ch

S&P 500 Gains as Lutnick Signals US-China Progress

“Any materially positive or negative trade-talk headlines out of London, where US and Chinese negotiations remain underway, could meaningfully move markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation

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This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Stock-market rally has pushed S&P 500 above ‘fundamental valuation levels’

“This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation and really only justifiable if we assume extremely positive resolution to the numerous risks facing this market and economy,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note Tuesday. “The S&P 500 at these levels reflects a very optimistic view of how this all works out.”

The stock market faces the risk of tariffs slowing the economy and hurting corporate earnings, as well as concerns about inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook, according to his note.

“The environment is much better than what was feared in April, but it’s still an environment with several distinct equity market headwinds, especially compared to the start of the year,” said Essaye. “While the rally is legitimate, the S&P 500 is solidly above fundamental valuation levels.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

June MMT Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June MMT Chart

Stock futures are modestly lower this morning as the “framework agreement” from the U.S.-China trade talks is digested ahead of today’s critical U.S. CPI report.

Economically, Japanese CPI favorably fell from 4.1% in April to just 3.2% in May, below estimates of 3.5%.

Today, focus will be on the latest U.S. inflation data with CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) figures due to be released before the open.

There are no other economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which leaves a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as the only other notable market catalysts on the calendar today.

Finally, two late season earnings releases that could move markets after the close include: CHWY ($0.16), ORCL ($1.30).

June Market Multiple Table (All About TACO)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June Market Multiple Table Update – All About “TACO”

Futures are slightly higher this morning as traders remain optimistic about progress in the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks ahead of the May CPI release tomorrow.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3 points to 98.8 in May, topping estimates of 95.9 which is supporting modest gains in U.S. equity futures.

There are no additional economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which limits potential catalysts to today’s Treasury auctions which include 6-Week and 52-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a (more important) 3-Yr Note auction at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Late season earnings continue to trickle in as well with: ASO ($0.84), SJM ($2.25), UNFI ($0.24), GME ($0.08), and PLAY ($0.96) all due to report Q1 results today.

Bottom line, today is lining up to be fairly quiet as far as scheduled catalysts are concerned. However, any materially positive or negative trade talk headlines out of London where U.S. and Chinese negotiations remain underway, could meaningfully move markets today before focus turns to tomorrow’s critical May CPI release.

NYSE Opens Mixed as Investors Await Jobs Data, Watch for New Risks

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Tom Essaye warns a quiet tape could turn quickly on negative surprises

NYSE starts mixed as it awaits employment data

PROFIT-TAKING RISK LOOMS IF NEW MACRO HEADLINES HIT A SOFT MARKET

U.S. markets opened mixed Thursday, with investors awaiting fresh employment data and watching global headlines for any surprises.

A lack of response from China on a potential US-China leadership call and a downgraded economic outlook from the OECD added to the cautious tone.

According to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, markets may drift today—but that calm could change quickly.

“Today is likely to be a relatively quiet day… but if negative news emerges, there is a risk of profit-taking.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Following May’s sharp rebound, traders appear hesitant to push further without new catalysts, leaving the market exposed to headline-driven pullbacks.

Also, click here to view the full Bloomingbit article, published on June 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated)
  • Jobless Claims Show Potential Cracks Emerging in Labor Market
  • Productivity and Costs Point to Sticky Wage Inflation
  • Collapsing Trade Deficit Reveals Significant Tariff Impact on Trade

Futures are modestly higher this morning as TSLA shares (+4%) are recovering some of yesterday’s heavy losses amid prospects of a Trump-Musk call today while economic data was solid overnight ahead of today’s jobs report.

Economically, Eurozone GDP rose +1.5% y/y in Q1 vs. (E) +1.3% while Retail Sales rose +2.3% vs. (E) +1.0% y/y. Both data points support the case for ongoing resilience and bolster prospects for a soft economic landing in the EU.

Market will be primarily focused on the May BLS Employment Situation Report this morning at 8:30 a.m. ET (E: 129K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 3.7% Wage Growth).

From there focus will shift to the financial news headlines as traders look for additional insight on trade negotiations, particularly talks between the U.S. and both Europe and China, however there is a “second tiered” economic release in the afternoon with Consumer Credit (E: $10.2B) due out at 3:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, two late season earnings releases to watch today are ABM ($0.87) and MANU ($-0.33) but neither is likely to meaningfully move markets with the focus on the May jobs report.

Buy the Trump tariff dip

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Buy the Trump tariff dip: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in Markets Insider

The TACO trade is the new Trump trade. Here’s what to know about the meme ruling the stock market.

“Buy the Trump tariff dip. Essentially, Trump has proven to investors that he won’t actually follow through with draconian tariffs,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report wrote on Wednesday. “As such, any sell-off following a dramatic tariff threat should be bought.”

Also, click here to view the full Market Insider article featured in MSN, published on May 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI Takeaways
  • Oil Update – Prices Resilient Despite Three Bearish Catalysts

Futures are little changed as global traders digest yesterday’s soft U.S. economic data after a mostly quiet night of news.

Economically, China’s Services PMI rose from 50.7 to 51.1, meeting estimates while Eurozone PPI favorably cooled to 0.7% from 1.9%.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports to watch including International Trade in Goods (E: $-118.1B), Jobless Claims (E: 235K), and Productivity & Costs (E: -0.8%, 5.7%). However, with the May Jobs Report looming large tomorrow, it will take a significant surprise in one of these reports to materially move markets.

There are also multiple Fed speakers again today including Kugler (12:00 p.m. ET), Harker (1:30 p.m. ET), and Schmid (1:30 p.m. ET). Any dovish commentary regarding yesterday’s soft economic data is likely to be well received, supporting both stocks and bonds.

Finally, there are a handful of late-season earnings releases this afternoon: AVGO ($1.35), LULU ($2.59), DOCU ($0.25), BF.B ($0.36), and WOOF ($-0.05). AVGO is particularly in focus as an increasingly important semiconductor manufacturer and its quarterly results could move the broader tech space on a material beat/miss.