Posts

What to Expect from Markets in 2025

/in , , /by

What to Expect from Markets in 2025: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What to Expect from Markets in 2025
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does the Fed Keep Cutting and Does Data Stay Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  All Eyes on the Fed Dots

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news and despite mixed global economic data.

Chinese Retail Sales (3.0% vs. (E) 4.6%) and Fixed Asset Investment (3.3% vs. (E) 3.5%) both missed estimates, reminding investors that despite promises for more stimulus, Chinese growth remains lackluster.

In Europe, data was better as the flash Composite PMIs for the EU (49.5 vs. (E) 48.0) and the UK (50.5 vs. (E) 50.0) both beat estimates.

Today focus will be on the Empire Manufacturing Survey (6.4) as that’s the first data point for December and investors will want to see in an-line to slightly soft reading to reinforce the Goldilocks narrative.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the CPI Report Means for Markets

/in , , /by

What the CPI Report Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the CPI Report Means for Markets

Futures are modestly lower on a surprise central bank rate hike and after ADBE posted disappointing guidance.

Brazil’s Central Bank hiked rates 100 bps (more than expected) and promised more rate hikes in the future, reflecting some mild fraying of the global rate cut cycle.

ADBE guidance missed investor expectations and it’s the second underwhelming tech report this week (after ORCL).

Today focus will be on rate cuts and economic data.  First, we get the ECB Rate Decision and markets expect a 25 bps cut (if there’s no cut, that’d be a surprise negative).  Economically, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and markets will want to see another Goldilocks reading (so around the 220k level).  We also get the latest PPI report (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) but barring a big jump, it shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, the key report today is AVGO ($1.39) and markets will want to see a solid tech report to stop this mini-trend of underwhelming guidance (from ORCL and ADBE this week).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way

/in , , /by

The VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in S&P Global

Stock market ‘fear gauge’ plunges; investors expect rally to persist into 2025

Volatility dynamics in the stock market have shifted since the election when many investors crowded into downside stock market hedges on fears that a Democratic victory could lead to taxes on unrealized capital gains, said Tyler Richey with Sevens Report Research. This also hurt the performance of short volatility strategies, which had been crushed by a massive VIX squeeze at the start of August, Richey said.

“Between the post-election unwind in broad stock market hedges and a suffering short-volatility crowd [throughout 2024], the derivatives market pendulum swung hard from one extreme to another with the VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way over the last month,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full S&P Global article published on December 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table: December Update

/in , , /by

Market Multiple Table: December Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table: A New Influence That Could Increase Volatility in 2025
  • Unbranded, Shareable MMT PDF Upon Request

Stock futures are stabilizing after Monday’s modest pullback as trader focus shifts ahead to tomorrow’s CPI report. Small caps are leading in pre-market trade thanks to a surprisingly solid NFIB report released earlier this morning.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged 8 points to 101.7 in November, handily topping estimates of 94.5 to hit the highest level since June 2021. Overseas, German CPI met estimates at 2.2% y/y, another Goldilocks inflation report.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Productivity & Costs (E: 2.2%, 1.9%). The data has an inflation component (specifically the “Costs” part) that could move yields today and influence stocks (higher yields will weigh on equities).

Additionally, there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and a few late-season earnings reports due out including AZO ($4.30), ASO ($1.25), and GME ($0.00).

The Treasury auction is another catalyst that could move yields and impact equities, but tomorrow’s CPI report is becoming the primary focus on the market as we progress through the week so market moves should be limited by trader positioning today.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why There’s A Clear Path for the Santa Rally

/in , , /by

Why There’s A Clear Path for the Santa Rally: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why There’s A Clear Path for the Santa Rally
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do inflation metrics make a December rate cut guaranteed?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI on Wednesday is the key report

Futures are slightly lower as geo-political unrest is slightly outweighing more stimulus promises from China.

Geopolitically, rebels overthrew the Assad regime in Syria over the weekend.  While this is a major geo-political event, the impact on markets is likely small given Syria isn’t a major oil exporter.

China’s officials promised an easier monetary policy bias and more fiscal stimulus over the weekend, boosting Chinese shares.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will on be geo-politics and oil prices.  As long as the turmoil in Syria doesn’t push oil prices higher, it shouldn’t impact stocks.

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter and Technicals

We’ve continued to be contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2024 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you want to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report product), please email  info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

/in , , /by

Jobs Day: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Updated VIX Analysis

Futures are slightly lower following a mostly quiet night of news and ahead of today’s jobs report.

Economically, German Industrial Production missed expectations (-1.0% vs. (E) 1.5%) and became the latest underwhelming EU economic report.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  200K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 3.9% y/y Wage Growth.  A “Goldilocks” job adds number is something around the 200k expectation or lower, as long as it’s not close to zero.  Anything in that range (with mostly in-line unemployment and wages) should “green light” a Fed rate cut in December and help fuel a Santa Rally.

Speaking of the Fed, there are numerous speakers today including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (10:30 a.m. ET), Hammack (12:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (1:00 p.m. ET).  However, most of them have spoken recently and their message has been consistent:  A December rate cut is possible but not guaranteed and rates will come down over time.  As long as that’s the message from them today, they shouldn’t impact markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview

/in , , /by

Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news and mixed economic data.

European economic data continued to point to lack-luster growth.  German Manufacturers’ Orders (-1.5% vs. (E) -2.0%) and UK Construction PMI (55.2 vs. (E) 54.3) beat while Eurozone Retail Sales (-0.5% vs. (E) 0.0%) missed expectations.

Bitcoin rose above $100k for the first time in overnight trading, hitting a new milestone.

Today the focus will shift to employment ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report as we get Challenger Job Cuts (E: 55k) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K).  The key for both metrics remains Goldilocks readings (generally meeting expectations but not too weak or too strong).  Additionally, there is one Fed speaker today, Barkin (12:15 p.m. ET).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sentiment Divergence Between Advisors and Investors

/in , , /by

Sentiment Divergence Between Advisors and Investors: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment: Divergence Appearing Between Investors and Advisors
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Futures are little changed amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and ongoing political turmoil in Europe.

Overnight, China announced an export ban of specific rare minerals with military applications to the U.S. in the latest escalation of trade tensions between the two countries.

EU shares edged higher ahead of the French government’s “vote of no confidence” (tomorrow) linked to ongoing budget turmoil.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: JOLTS (E: 7.49 million) and Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.0 million). Investors will want to see more “Goldilocks” data to support post-election growth optimism.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers to watch: Kugler (12:35 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:30 p.m. ET and 3:45 p.m. ET), and as long as they do not offer any hawkish surprises, stocks should be able to extend gains to new record highs today.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Who’s Right on the Consumer? WMT (Positive) or TGT (Negative)

/in , , /by

Save time.
Gain market intelligence.
Outperform competitors.

Sevens Report is a daily market analysis tailored for today’s advisors and investors.

“Your daily market analysis saves me 45 minutes every morning. I feel more informed after reading it than when I spent an hour catching up.”

—David R., Top-Producing Financial Advisor at a Leading Wire House

Subscribe now
Start your two-week free trial
Drawing inspiration from morning trading notes, Sevens Report offers laser-focused analysis on market essentials. We cut through the information overload that financial professionals and self-directed investors grapple with daily.
Sevens Report provides succinct, comprehensive coverage of all asset classes.Delivered at 7:00 a.m., our independent analysts interpret what economic data means for the market and spotlight risks and opportunities in:
STOCKS
BONDS
CURRENCIES
COMMODITIES

“Your insights have been very helpful in describing the reasons for the market’s ups & downs and this is valuable to me in discussions with my clients.”

Founded by former NYSE floor trader Tom Essaye, Sevens Report has clear objectives:  “Ensure you’re never caught off-guard by a market move and eliminate the need to sift through lengthy, irrelevant research notes.”

With illustrative charts, graphs, and concise commentary, we monitor daily to mid-term market shifts. Plus, we offer actionable investment tactics to give you a competitive edge. Sevens Report is the daily market analysis tool that sets you ahead.

Attract more clients.
Boost client retention.
Increase assets under management.

Stay updated on the markets by 7 a.m. in just seven minutes.

Not satisfied in two weeks? Claim a full refund.

Subscribe now
Start your two-week free trial
additional offerings
boost your insights with upgrades:

Independent investment ideas and access to experts and industry insiders.

Learn more -->

Save time and focus on building your client base with impressive, timely market analysis every quarter.

Learn more -->

Effectively Navigate an Increasingly Difficult and Rapidly Changing Market Landscape.

Learn more -->

Start your risk-free, two-week trials of Sevens Report today.

*No credit card required.

Data Check: Hard Landing or Soft Landing?

/in , , /by

Data Check: Hard Landing or Soft Landing?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Chart: NVDA Earnings Loom Large – Key Technical Support in Focus

Futures are slightly higher but well off session highs as “warm” EU inflation data pushed yields higher overnight with the U.S. 10-Yr pushing back beyond 4.40%.

Economically, inflation data in Europe was “warm” as U.K. Core CPI rose 3.3% y/y vs. (E) 3.2% in October while German PPI unexpectedly rose 0.2% m/m last month following a sizeable 0.5% drop in September.

There are no notable economic reports today but there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move markets depending on demand measures for the longer duration government bonds (higher yields would weigh on stocks again).

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers today Cook (11:30 a.m. ET) and Bowman (12:15 p.m. ET), but unless they are materially hawkish, their comments should not move markets.

Finally, earnings season has largely wound down however there are some notables reporting quarterly results today including: TGT ($2.29), TJX ($1.09), NVDA ($0.74), PANW ($1.48), SQM ($0.64).

Interestingly, Barclays analysts noted earlier this week that options markets suggest today’s report from NVDA will be the biggest catalyst remaining in 2024, underscoring the importance of investor sentiment towards the AI-darling’s growth prospects, leaving the chip-maker’s earnings report a potential make-or-break event for markets this afternoon.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.