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Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).

Lowering Energy Prices To “Combat Sticky High Inflation”

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Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies climb for a third week in a row

A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, or end of the war, could be bearish for oil if Trump, who is adamant about lowering energy prices to “combat sticky high inflation” pushes for an immediate removal of all sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Also, geopolitical stability may “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.”

The market’s reaction to the CPI data underscored that “higher-for-longer Fed policy is becoming increasingly likely in 2025,” Richey said. “That ultimately raises the risk that restrictive rates choke off growth and tip the economy over a fragile edge into a recession, a historically demand-crippling phase of the economic cycle for oil and refined products.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation

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Tom Essaye Interview With Financial Sense

This Week: Sticky Inflation and More Tariffs – Tom Essaye on Market Response

Financial expert Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation, the potential impact of new tariffs, and why the Fed may be forced to reconsider rate cuts. With the S&P 500 at record highs, Essaye warns of market vulnerability and highlights where investors should be looking now. Don’t miss this deep dive into inflation, interest rates, and market strategy!

Also, click here to view the full interview with Financial Sense published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

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Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

Why ‘The People are the Product’ for RDDT and TTD A.I. Usage

Ahead of Reddit (RDDT) earnings, shares are trading off of all-time highs. “These platforms live and die based off the usage” of its subscribers, says Tom Essaye. He adds that he likes the company’s business structure, believing the company will only become more valuable. For The Trade Desk (TTD) he says the AI story will be one to watch. Tom believes the AI technology has to make its ads more effective, targeted and valuable.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table: February Update

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Market Multiple Table: February Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table (February Update)
  • NY Fed Inflation Expectations

Stock futures are lower and yields are higher after President Trump officially announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports late yesterday, reigniting global trade war worries.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 102.8 in January from December’s multi-year highs of 105.1. The headline missed estimates of 104.7 and underscored fading post-election optimism among business owners.

There are no other economic reports today, however there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Soft demand, and subsequently higher yields could further pressure equities this afternoon with tomorrow’s CPI report in focus.

Additionally, market focus will be on Capitol Hill today as Fed Chair Powell is set to begin his semi-annual Congressional Testimony at 10:00 a.m. ET. We will also hear from the Fed’s Hammack (8:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (3:30 p.m. ET) today. A dovish tone, and further confidence in a soft economic landing will be favorable for equity markets today.

Finally, earnings season continues today with reports from SHOP ($0.43) and KO ($0.51) before the bell and SMCI ($0.54) after the close.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Discretionary demand for driving fuels, which remains near a 52-week low right now.

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Discretionary demand for driving fuels, which remains near a 52-week low right now.: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices drop on rise in U.S. supplies as tariffs threaten to dent Chinese demand

Refinery utilization rose by 1 percentage point to 84.5%, EIA data showed. The uptick was likely in reaction to a “weather-driven rise in demand for heating oil last week,” which also helps explain the sizeable increase in distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

However, the trends in the weekly data suggest that demand for oil and refined products has been weak so far in 2025, “and [is] potentially poised to get weaker,” he said. “That is especially true regarding discretionary demand for driving fuels, which remains near a 52-week low right now.”

“If we don’t begin to see signs of firming inflation” with gasoline supplied rising back towards 9 million barrels per day or higher in the weeks ahead, then “WTI futures dropping back below $70 [per] barrel will become rather likely,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on February 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

This market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up

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This market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Sevens Report jobs preview: The ‘market needs Goldilocks data’

In the latest Sevens Report, analysts highlighted the importance of Friday’s jobs report, stating that “if it’s Goldilocks, it’s going to help support the market amidst all this tariff and policy noise.”

However, if the report is either too strong or too weak, it could introduce further volatility and pressure on stocks.

Sevens Report emphasizes that for markets to remain stable, “this market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on February 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview: Why A Goldilocks Report Matters For This Market

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Jobs Report Preview: Why A Goldilocks Report Matters For This Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview:  Why A Goldilocks Report Matters For This Market

Futures are little changed as markets await the next round of news on tariffs while economic data was mixed.

Economically, Euro Zone Retail Sales missed estimates (-0.2% vs. (E) 0.0%) underscoring still tepid EU growth.

On trade, a call between Trump and Xi still hasn’t happened but most expect tariffs to be reduced when it does.

Today will be a busy day in the markets, starting with a major central bank decision as the Bank of England is expected to cut rates 25 bps.

Economically, there are two notable reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 3.3%) and as we’ve seen the last two days, slight misses vs. expectations will be positives for stocks and bonds.  On the Fed front, there are two speakers today but they won’t move markets as they both speak after the close (Logan at 5:10 p.m. ET and Waller at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Finally, on earnings, the key report today is AMZN ($1.52) after the bell.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Trade War 2.0 Primer (Needed Context)

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Trade War 2.0 Primer (Needed Context): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • U.S. Trade Primer (Needed Context for Trade War 2.0)
  • Chart – JOLTS Drop Consistent With Cooling Labor Market

Futures are lower thanks to lingering trade war jitters and soft earnings from two big tech companies late yesterday.

GOOGL (-7%) missed estimates on revenue due to a slowdown in their cloud business while AMD (-9%) offered weak forward guidance, both of which are weighing on tech today, dragging stock futures lower in pre-market trade.

Today, there are two potentially market moving economic reports to watch; the ADP Employment Report (E: 150K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 54.0). investors will once again be looking for Goldilocks data with steady but cooling jobs data and positive but slowing growth in the service sector. Any “hot” numbers will likely weigh on stocks today.

Additionally, there are several Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bowman (3:00 p.m. ET) while earnings season continues with Q4 reports due out from UBER ($0.50), DIS ($1.44), TM ($4.36), F ($0.34), QCOM ($2.97), and MCK ($8.11).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.