“Stagflationary economic data, rising COVID cases in China, and hawkish [Federal Reserve] chatter have all been added headwinds on the oil market today,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“Looking at the curve, the 10s-2s yield curve spread remained near a multidecade low of nearly minus-80 basis points. That deep of an inversion suggests that the Fed’s current policy and expected path of future policy are far too restrictive for the state of the economy and growth expectations, which will almost certainly end in a recession — and potentially a severe one given the scope of the current inversions across the Treasury yield curve,” said Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
“The lack of a concrete timeline or any real details about plans to reopen the Chinese economy and move away from the still very strict and economically crippling restrictions weighed on the energy market into the afternoon,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“The negative China headlines and soft U.S. economic data were demand-side negatives for oil. However, hopes for peak-hawkishness bolstered risk assets” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Tuesday newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
“The trend is still lower for now but once we can actually say we have reached peak-hawkishness, the outlook for gold will very likely shift to neutral (if not bullish) from bearish,” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and the founder of the Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
“The Biden administration introduced an ‘SPR put’ to the oil market this week when they announced purchasing crude to replenish reserves when prices dip towards $70 a barrel,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
“The backdrop of sticky high inflation resulting in increasingly more hawkish Fed policy expectations for the foreseeable future and the subsequent rise in recession fears will likely keep a lid on WTI in the low to mid $90s,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
“Oil has given back roughly half of the October gains this week thanks to the negative shift in policy and economic outlooks denting demand expectations,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
“With many analysts and economists now forecasting a recession as their base case outlook for 2023, demand estimates for everything from energy products to industrial metals are taking a hit,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
In the past, these “golden crosses” have preceded sharp downturns in stocks. One occurred in September 2008, just before stock-market volatility exploded in response to Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, according to Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report and a stock-market strategist who closely follows the Vix. Click here to read the full article.
