Posts

Why This Market Is So Resilient (Again)

/in , /by

Why This Market Is So Resilient (Again): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why This Market Is So Resilient (Again)
  • Weekly Economic Preview – Labor Market Data in Focus

Futures are lower in sympathy with most global equity markets this morning as investors digest fresh economic data at the start of a historically volatile calendar month.

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was better than feared at 45.8 vs. (E) 45.6, but the sub-50 reading reminded investors the global factory sector remains deep in contraction and growth risks remain elevated.

Looking into today’s session, there are no Fed speakers on the calendar but there is one potentially market-moving economic report to start the week: the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.8). Investors will want to see evidence of stabilization in the factory sector and easing price pressures in the details of the report, otherwise growth concerns could result in renewed volatility.

There are no other major potential catalysts today, however, the Treasury will hold 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and the yields awarded could shed new light on Fed policy plans in the months ahead, and in turn, impact equity markets (higher yields would weigh on stocks and other risk assets).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is Market Momentum Faltering?

/in , /by

Is Market Momentum Faltering?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Market Momentum Faltering?
  • Oil Outlook Updated

Futures are slightly higher as better than expected EU inflation metrics offset slightly underwhelming NVDA earnings.

Spanish and German regional CPIs declined more than expected and that’s increasing ECB rate cut expectations and reminding investors of the global rate cutting cycle.

With NVDA results behind us, focus turns back to data and the important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 232K), Pending Home Sales (E: 1.0%) and Final Q2 GDP (E: 2.8% y/y saar).  Of the three, jobless claims are most likely to move markets as a jump in claims will slightly increase hard landing worries, while a drop will further reinforce soft landing expectations.  There is also one Fed speaker today, Bostic (3:30 p.m. ET), but unless he says he supports a 50 bps cut, he’s unlikely to move markets.

Turning to earnings, NVDA was the highlight of the week but there are still several important reports today that will give us important insight on tech and consumer spending.  Notable reports today include: DELL (E: $1.68), MRVL (E: $0.30), BBY (E: $1.15), DG (E: $1.79), , LULU (E: $2.93),  ULTA (E: $5.49).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The market is very sensitive to soft labor market data

/in , /by

The market is very sensitive to soft labor market data: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Revisions to U.S. jobs data due Wednesday have the potential to weigh on the stock market

The 12-month average for job additions over the revision period was 241,000 — a “very strong” figure that implies a solid labor market, noted Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. A downward revision of 600,000 would drop the average payrolls gain to 191,000, while a downward revision of 1 million would make what’s been strong jobs data “more middling,” he wrote.

“This matters because the market is very sensitive to soft labor market data and we know that from the recent pop in jobless claims and July jobs report. So, while investors are ok ignoring most disappointing data, they aren’t ignoring soft labor market data and if these revisions are worse than expected, look for it to weigh on stocks today,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on August 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Concerning Gap Between Stocks, Treasuries and the Yen

/in , /by

The Concerning Gap Between Stocks, Treasuries and the Yen: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Concerning Gap Between Stocks, Treasuries and the Yen
  • Oil Update (Why is Oil Hitting Multi-Month Lows?)

Futures are slightly higher on more Goldilocks economic data.

The EU and UK August flash composite PMIs were better than expected (51.2 vs. (E) 50.7 in the EU and 53.4 vs. (E) 52.9 in the UK) and that’s supporting the global soft landing narrative.

On inflation, EU wages rose less than expected in Q2, reinforcing expectations for a Sept. rate cut from the ECB.

Today focus will be on economic data as today is the most important day of the week from a data standpoint.  Key reports, in order of importance, include Jobless Claims (E: 234K), August Flash Composite PMI (E: 53.3) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.90 million).  More Goldilocks data (at or close to expectations) should further support the rally and if that’s the case, new highs for the S&P 500 shouldn’t be a shock.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Updated Market Outlook

/in , /by

Updated Market Outlook: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Powell Confirm A September Rate Cut?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The First Big Number of August (and It Needs to be Goldilocks)

Futures are little changed following a very quiet weekend of news as investors look ahead to more growth data this week and Powell’s speech on Friday.

There was no notable economic data over the weekend or overnight.

Geopolitically, optimism is continuing to build towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and that’s weighing on oil prices, although nothing formal has been announced.

Today there is only one economic number, Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%), and barring a big surprise that shouldn’t move markets.  There is also one Fed speaker, Waller (9:15 a.m. ET), and he is part of Fed leadership so if he strongly hints at a September rate cut, that should be a mild tailwind for stocks and bonds.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Falling Inflation Won’t Help Stocks Anymore

/in , /by

Why Falling Inflation Won’t Help Stocks Anymore: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Falling Inflation Won’t Help Stocks Anymore
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher thanks to better-than-expected tech earnings and despite mixed economic data.

CSCO posted solid earnings and that’s helping extend the tech sector bounce and boosting futures.

Economically, Chinese and UK data was more mixed than good and point to a modest slowing of global growth.

Economic growth is now the main fundamental driver of this market and today is full of important growth updates including, in order of importance: Retail Sales (E: 0.3%), Jobless Claims (E: 234K), Industrial Production (E: -0.1%), Philly Fed (E: 5.8),  Empire Manufacturing (-6.0) and Housing Market Index (E: 42).  In-line to slightly underwhelming economic data will be the “best case” for stocks in the near term as it increases 50 bps rate cut chances but doesn’t imply a dramatic growth slowdown.

There are also two Fed speakers today, Musalem (9:10 a.m. ET) and Harker (1:10 p.m. ET) and officials might start to be more explicit about a rate cut following Wednesday’s CPI (Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he was open to a cut in September overnight).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two “Smart Market” Recession Signals to Watch For

/in , /by

Two “Smart Market” Recession Signals to Watch For: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Follow-Up Thoughts on the Yield Curve Reversion Process – Two Signals to Watch For
  • PPI Takeaways – Will Falling Inflation Flip from a Tailwind to a Headwind?
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Echoes HD Sales Concerns

U.S. stock futures are flat as traders digest yesterday’s sizeable rally ahead of today’s critical CPI release.

Overseas, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut rates overnight citing recession concerns in H2’24 while the EU GDP Flash met estimates at 0.6% y/y helping push back on imminent recession fears.

Today, market focus will be on the key U.S. inflation data due ahead of the bell: CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.0% y/y), Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.2% y/y). A “cool” release will be welcomed and likely support an extension of the week-to-date gains while a “hot” print would be negative for risk assets.

There are no Fed speakers today, however there is a 4-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET which normally wouldn’t pique investors interest, but this one lines up with the September Fed meeting and could shed light on the market’s policy rate expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down with a few noteworthy companies reporting today including: CAH (E: $1.72), UBS (E: $0.12), TCEHY (E: $0.61), CSCO (E: $0.85).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds

/in , /by

 I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Halt Rebound as Oil Hits $80 on War Angst: Markets Wrap

Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report says he doesn’t think fundamentals have deteriorated enough to warrant de-risking and reducing equity or risk exposure — but he also wants to caution against dismissing the recent uptick in volatility.

“Much of what I read over the weekend characterized this recent volatility as just a typical pullback in an upward-trending market,” Essaye. “Because of that, I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on August 12th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Swissinfoch logo

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The market collapse was driven by both fundamental and technical factors

/in , /by

The market collapse was driven by both fundamental and technical factors: Sevens Report Quoted in Investing.com

These are key indicators to watch for signs the pullback is ending

According to Sevens Report, the market collapse was driven by both fundamental and technical factors.

Fundamentally, economic data has finally forced investors to acknowledge the economy’s loss of momentum.

“Namely, that the economy is losing momentum and an economic hard landing, while not yet likely, is possible.”

“This market needs some solid economic data and the sooner, the better, because that will push back on premature recession concerns and remind investors that while growth is slowing, it’s not collapsing,” Sevens Report said in the note.

Also, click here to view the full article published on August 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The bond market is now signaling a real chance of a greater-than-expected economic slowdown

/in , /by

The bond market is now signaling a real chance of a greater-than-expected economic slowdown : Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Traders Seek Refuge in Bonds Amid Market Volatility

“The bond market is now signaling a real chance of a greater-than-expected economic slowdown and falling yields are no longer a positive for markets. Going forward, the sooner Treasury yields can stabilize (ideally with the 10 year close to 4%) the better for markets,” wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye in a note.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on August 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.