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New ETFs for Your Watchlist (June Update)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist – June Update
  • Powell Testimony Takeaways
  • Chart – Consumer Confidence Tumbles (Again)

Futures are flat as investors digest reports that the U.S. strikes on Iran nuclear facilities resulted in limited damage while focus remains on Powell’s semi-annual testimony.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight and financial news wires were mostly quiet since yesterday’s close.

Today, there is one economic report to watch with New Home Sales (E: 694K) due out just after the bell. Housing data has been trending weaker but that has bolstered dovish money flows so a “hot” print could spark a hawkish reaction and weigh on stocks.

Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony continues today at 10:00 a.m. ET which will be a primary focus for markets as investors look for clues as to when the FOMC will resume cutting interest rates.

Moving into the afternoon, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Demand has been strong in recent weeks so a weak outcome that sends rates higher is a hawkish risk to watch for that would weigh on risk assets.

Finally, there are a few more late-season earnings reports to watch including PAYX ($1.18), GIS ($0.71), MU ($1.61), and JEF ($0.43).

 

Sevens Report Q2 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming Next Tuesday

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What Would Make Markets Care About the Israel-Iran Conflict?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would Make Markets Care About the Israel-Iran Conflict?
  • June Flash PMI Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are tracking global shares higher after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, greatly reducing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Business Expectations component of the German Ifo Survey rose to 90.7 vs. (E) 89.8 in June which is adding to optimism that a recession will be avoided in most developed nations in 2025.

Looking into today’s session, there are multiple economic reports due to be released including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.0%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 99.0), and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -7.0).

There are also multiple Fed speakers on the calendar to watch with Hammack (9:15 & 10:15 a.m. ET), Powell (10:00 a.m. ET), Williams (12:30 p.m. ET),  and Collins (2:05 p.m. ET) all due to deliver remarks today.

Finally, some noteworthy earnings releases to keep an eye on include CCL ($0.24), SNX ($2.56), FDX ($5.93), and BB ($0.00).

Bottom line, the two most important catalysts to watch today will be the Consumer Confidence release with investors looking for a healthy/better than expected headline and easing inflation expectations, and Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill as investors gauge the prospects for a July rate cut (the more dovish expectations are, the better for stocks).

Unknowns Are Weighing on the Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Unknowns Are Weighing on the Markets

Futures are modestly lower as markets still wait for a decision on direct U.S. involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict.

The White House said the President will make a decision on U.S. involvement within two weeks, leaving a potential diplomatic window open.

Economically, UK retail sales were weaker than expected, falling –2.7% vs. (E ) 1.3% while German PPI met expectations (1.2% y/y).

Today focus will be on economic data and the two notable reports are Philly Fed (E: -1.0) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  As has been the case, the stronger these readings, the better for stocks (it pushes back against the slowdown narrative).

The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally

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The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

4 Ways to Find Winners in a Rising Market

“The gap between what we (and investors and clients) are reading daily in the mainstream and financial media is wide and getting wider,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye, citing the disconnect between “scary headlines” dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Reset the trade relationship back to where it was

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Reset the trade relationship back to where it was: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Netflix and 6 More Winning Stocks to Sell Now

The White House now says that trade negotiations with China are over, even though the latest agreement from London “did little other than to reset the trade relationship back to where it was following the Geneva talks and, importantly, didn’t result in any further tariff reduction,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye.

That means consumers will face at least 30% tariffs on Chinese imports and additional 25% on select goods and “according to the administration, they are going to stay there in perpetuity,” he notes. “Yes, ultimately Chinese tariffs were lower compared to the 145% absurdity in early April. But, they are much, much higher than at the start of the year.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What is the Shadow Fed?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is the Shadow Fed?

Futures are modestly lower as geopolitical concerns offset more strong tech earnings.

Geo-politically, multiple news outlets reported that Israel is preparing for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which is boosting gold prices and weighing on global markets.

Oracle (ORCL) beat earnings on continued robust demand for AI infrastructure (the stock is up 7% pre-market).

Today focus will be on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 243K) and PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y).  Claims have ticked higher in the last few weeks and if that continues, it will slightly increase economic anxiety and (slightly) pressure stocks.  On inflation, PPI is viewed as a loose leading indicator of CPI so if PPI can remain subdued, it’ll boost confidence inflation remains under control.

Finally, notable tech earnings continue today with ADBE ($4.01).

This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation

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This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Stock-market rally has pushed S&P 500 above ‘fundamental valuation levels’

“This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation and really only justifiable if we assume extremely positive resolution to the numerous risks facing this market and economy,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note Tuesday. “The S&P 500 at these levels reflects a very optimistic view of how this all works out.”

The stock market faces the risk of tariffs slowing the economy and hurting corporate earnings, as well as concerns about inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook, according to his note.

“The environment is much better than what was feared in April, but it’s still an environment with several distinct equity market headwinds, especially compared to the start of the year,” said Essaye. “While the rally is legitimate, the S&P 500 is solidly above fundamental valuation levels.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

June MMT Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June MMT Chart

Stock futures are modestly lower this morning as the “framework agreement” from the U.S.-China trade talks is digested ahead of today’s critical U.S. CPI report.

Economically, Japanese CPI favorably fell from 4.1% in April to just 3.2% in May, below estimates of 3.5%.

Today, focus will be on the latest U.S. inflation data with CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) figures due to be released before the open.

There are no other economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which leaves a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as the only other notable market catalysts on the calendar today.

Finally, two late season earnings releases that could move markets after the close include: CHWY ($0.16), ORCL ($1.30).

June Market Multiple Table (All About TACO)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June Market Multiple Table Update – All About “TACO”

Futures are slightly higher this morning as traders remain optimistic about progress in the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks ahead of the May CPI release tomorrow.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3 points to 98.8 in May, topping estimates of 95.9 which is supporting modest gains in U.S. equity futures.

There are no additional economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which limits potential catalysts to today’s Treasury auctions which include 6-Week and 52-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a (more important) 3-Yr Note auction at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Late season earnings continue to trickle in as well with: ASO ($0.84), SJM ($2.25), UNFI ($0.24), GME ($0.08), and PLAY ($0.96) all due to report Q1 results today.

Bottom line, today is lining up to be fairly quiet as far as scheduled catalysts are concerned. However, any materially positive or negative trade talk headlines out of London where U.S. and Chinese negotiations remain underway, could meaningfully move markets today before focus turns to tomorrow’s critical May CPI release.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated)
  • Jobless Claims Show Potential Cracks Emerging in Labor Market
  • Productivity and Costs Point to Sticky Wage Inflation
  • Collapsing Trade Deficit Reveals Significant Tariff Impact on Trade

Futures are modestly higher this morning as TSLA shares (+4%) are recovering some of yesterday’s heavy losses amid prospects of a Trump-Musk call today while economic data was solid overnight ahead of today’s jobs report.

Economically, Eurozone GDP rose +1.5% y/y in Q1 vs. (E) +1.3% while Retail Sales rose +2.3% vs. (E) +1.0% y/y. Both data points support the case for ongoing resilience and bolster prospects for a soft economic landing in the EU.

Market will be primarily focused on the May BLS Employment Situation Report this morning at 8:30 a.m. ET (E: 129K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 3.7% Wage Growth).

From there focus will shift to the financial news headlines as traders look for additional insight on trade negotiations, particularly talks between the U.S. and both Europe and China, however there is a “second tiered” economic release in the afternoon with Consumer Credit (E: $10.2B) due out at 3:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, two late season earnings releases to watch today are ABM ($0.87) and MANU ($-0.33) but neither is likely to meaningfully move markets with the focus on the May jobs report.