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Markets may get a bit ugly

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Markets may get a bit ugly: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Bloomberg

Israel Strike: The Bloomberg Open, Europe Edition

Markets may “get a bit ugly” if the central bank doesn’t signal a reduction given the recent tech weakness, said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article published on July 31st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Why Stocks Dropped (What We’ve Been Worrying About)

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Why Stocks Dropped (What We’ve Been Worrying About): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped (What We’ve Been Worrying About)
  • Jobs Day (Updated Preview)

Futures are sharply lower and are extending Thursday’s losses following more disappointing tech earnings and as worries about economic growth grow.

Tech earnings disappointed last night as AMZN (down 8%), MCHP (down 5%) and INTC (down 20%, not a typo) all posted disappointing earnings or guidance.

Geo-politically, concerns are rising about a direct Israel/Iran conflict and that’s boosting oil and gold prices.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 180K Job Adds, 4.1% Unemployment Rate and 3.7% y/y Wage Growth.  Given Thursday’s poor economic data and the pop in growth concerns, a slightly better than expected number would be the best-case scenario for stocks and help support the “rest” of the market (tech will be under pressure today regardless because of earnings).  A number substantially below expectations (or a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% or higher) will increase growth concerns and further weigh on stocks.

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We’re staring at big catalysts

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We’re staring at big catalysts: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Tech Stocks Are Sliding Ahead of Key Earnings Reports

“There was not much going on yesterday and there isn’t a ton going on today, either,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “And we’ve had sort of big moves in the market, and we’re staring at big catalysts.”

Reports from Alphabet and Tesla may have lowered the bar for Big Tech, Essaye says. On the flip side, the megacap tech stocks have run up tremendously on high expectations for growth ahead driven by artificial intelligence. That changed in July, when tech stocks started to struggle to keep up as investors rotated from the sector to underperforming small-cap names.

“Investors are kind of more in a ‘show me’ mode now than they have been in a long time with these names,” Essaye says. “They want to see better earnings before they jump back in for fear that this rotation isn’t over.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on July 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Technical Levels to Watch Today and Jobs Report Preview

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Technical Levels to Watch Today and Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Levels to Watch in the Wake of the Fed
  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are solidly higher in pre-market trade with tech and AI-focused names leading after solid AMD earnings (stock up 9%) offset mildly disappointing results from MSFT (stock down 3%) while economic data was solid overnight and investors digest the BOJ’s decision to raise rates to the highest level since 2008.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 154K), Employment Cost Index (E: 1.0%), and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.1%) all due to be released. Healthy employment and steady wage growth numbers will be critical to see for the soft landing narrative to persist.

From there, focus will turn to the Fed with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Earnings season also continues today with BA (-$1.68) and MA ($3.51) reporting before the open and META ($4.69), QCOM ($2.25), ALL ($0.33), and EBAY ($1.12) all due to release results after the close.

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Is the Yen Carry Trade Become A Headwind on Markets?

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Is the Yen Carry Trade Become A Headwind on Markets?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Yen Carry Trade Become A Headwind on Markets?

Futures are seeing a solid bounce following a mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to (hopefully) another good inflation report.

Earnings remained broadly mixed overnight (some good, some bad) but none of the results are impacting markets.

There was no notable economic data or geo-political events overnight.

Today the focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.5% y/y) and if this number is better than expected (or even dead in-line with expectations) that will remind investors that rate cuts are coming soon (September) and that should help extend this early rebound in stocks and bonds.

Earnings roll on although next week is, by far, the most important week of the season.  Reports we’re watching today include:  BMY (E: $1.64), MMM (E: $1.66) and CNC  (E: $2.42).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Corporate earnings growth and interest rate movements are likely to more directly impact equity prices.

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Corporate earnings growth and interest rate movements are likely to more directly impact equity prices: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Is Kamala Harris Good For Stocks? ‘Blue’ Sectors Like Tech Lead Monday Market Rally

The stock market fallout of shifting expectations for November’s election will likely be “very short term,” Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote to clients, as more directly impactful developments like corporate earnings growth and interest rate movements are likely to more directly impact equity prices.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on July 22nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

This political shake-up shouldn’t materially alter the direction of the markets

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This political shake-up shouldn’t materially alter the direction of the markets: Tom Essaye Quoted on BNN Bloomberg

Markets today: dip buyers wade back in to drive Wall Street gains

“This political shake-up shouldn’t materially alter the direction of the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “The ultimate direction of the S&P 500 will still be determined by economic growth.”

Also, click here to view the full BNN Bloomberg article published on July 22nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Explaining My Market View More Clearly

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Explaining My Market View More Clearly: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Explaining My Market View More Clearly – Subscriber Q&A
  • Chart: Visualizing the Recent Market Rotation

Futures are flat while overseas markets were mixed overnight with European shares trading higher on tech earnings optimism but Chinese markets fell on growth concerns.

There were no market moving economic reports overnight.

Looking into the U.S. session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and just one economic release to watch this morning: Existing Home Sales (E: 3.99M).

Additionally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could be a catalyst for bonds and ultimately impact stocks (especially if the outcome is weak, it could weigh on risk assets).

Finally, earnings season continues to pick up with UPS ($1.98), GM ($2.64), and KO ($0.80) releasing results before the bell and TSLA ($0.59), GOOGL ($1.84), V ($2.41), and COF ($3.28) reporting after the close.

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The stock serves as a little bit of a proxy for sentiment

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Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures: Tyler Richey Quoted in ABC News

Trump’s Truth Social stock soars after assassination attempt

“The stock serves as a little bit of a proxy for sentiment toward Donald Trump himself,” Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, told ABC News.

“I think there’s a resurgence of people — your die-hard Trump fans and fair-weather supporters — who think, ‘This is a life or death situation, we’re going all in,'” Richey added.

“The financials are atrocious,” Richey said. “But the prospects, while a little doubtful, are still there.”

“If this generates a significant uptick in users, then that could be bullish. Or it becomes a blip of short-term optimism,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full Los Angeles Times article published on July 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning

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Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures: Tom Essaye Quoted in Los Angeles Times

Trump media shares soar on reelection bid boost

 

“While expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets,” wrote Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full Los Angeles Times article published on July 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.