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FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways – Resilience Points to Soft Landing

Stock futures are lower thanks to a combination of weak earnings news and disappointing economic data overnight.

On the earnings front, PLTR missed estimates (shares down -8% in premarket trading) while F pulled 2025 guidance noting a tariff impact estimated to be -$2.5B on this year’s earnings.

Economically, China’s Service PMI fell to 50.7 vs. (E) 51.8 in April which dragged the Composite PMI down from 51.8 to 51.1, highlighting the negative impact the global trade war is having on the Chinese economy.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: International Trade Balance (E: -$136.3B). Typically, trade data is now widely followed, however given the trade war, a deeper than anticipated deficit could bolster recession angst.

Moving to the afternoon, the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The outcome of the former could shed light on near-term rate-cut odds while the latter auction could offer insight into growth and inflation expectations.

Finally, some late season earnings are due out today including: MAR ($2.27), CEG ($2.14), AMD ($0.75), SMCI ($0.21), and ET ($0.33).

Bottom line, good economic news and dovish money flows in Treasury auctions could help stabilize markets as the Fed meeting gets underway in Washington which will likely result in a growing sense of “Fed paralysis” as the session progresses today.

Can the Rally Keep Going?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Rally Keep Going?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Fed Signal a June Rate Cut?  (And What Does Trump Do If Not?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Signs of Slowing Growth?

Futures are moderately lower on digestion of Friday’s rally and following more tariff threats from President Trump.

President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on movies made outside the U.S., reminding investors that tariff risks remain elevated.

Oil prices are down 1% after OPEC+ increased output by 411k bbls/day starting in July (Saudi Arabia is trying to increase market share and that’s driving oil prices lower).

Today focus will be on the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.2) and if that number drops solidly below 50, we will see economic anxiety rise (the stronger this number, the better).

Earnings season is practically over but there are still some notable reports to watch, including: ON ($0.51) and PLTR ($0.08).

Gold trades in a range of 40 to 60 times the price of silver

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Gold trades in a range of 40 to 60 times the price of silver: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Gold Prices Are Crushing Silver. Why That Could Change Soon.

More typically gold trades in a range of 40 to 60 times the price of silver, according to Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, a markets newsletter. That means silver has room to catch up. “If history is a guide, the next phase of the precious-metals rally could belong to silver, not gold,” he wrote last month.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement

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The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why the stock rally may be in trouble after the White House ‘backtracked’ on tariffs

The U.S. stock market has already priced in backtracking on the large and sweeping “liberation day” tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on April 2, making it difficult for the market to keep up its recent rally, according to Sevens Report Research.

“The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement, including a delay while negotiations take place and exempting major categories of imports,” said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, in a note Monday. As an example of tariff exemptions, Essaye pointed to computer chips, electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles.

“The reality of the past month post-‘liberation day’ hasn’t been as bad as feared and the market has recouped those losses,” said Essaye. “However, I do not think these events are enough to sustainably propel the S&P 500 forward and I am sticking to my general 5,100-5,500-ish range.”

Investors, worried that large tariffs will place a drag on the U.S. economy while increasing the cost of goods for consumers, have been monitoring the White House’s negotiations with its trading partners. But with backtracking on tariffs already priced into the market, Essaye cautioned that “we could even see a ‘sell-the-news’ move once some trade deals are announced.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Will “Sell in May and Go Away” Work This Year?
  • Interesting Signal from the VIX

Futures are modestly higher as positive trade comments from China offset disappointing earnings overnight.

China’s Commerce Ministry issued a statement saying it was potentially open to trade talks with the U.S., stoking speculation that trade negotiations will begin soon.

Earnings overnight were soft as AAPL (down 3% pre-market) and AMZN (-1.3% pre-market) both disappointed.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  130K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 3.9% y/y Wage Growth.  Put simply, the stronger this number, the better, as it’s almost impossible that it’ll come in too hot while a strong number (ideally with tame wages) will push back on stagflation fears.

On earnings, the peak of the season is now behind us (on balance it’s been better than feared) but there are a few notable reports to watch today: XOM ($1.74), CI ($6.39), CVX ($2.15).

The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’

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The scales are tipped in favor of the May-Sellers: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg

Old Wisdom of ‘Sell in May’ Back in Focus as Stock Market Churns

“The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’ this year,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, adding that the risks are skewed toward the S&P 500 suffering another big decline next month.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

The primary negative influences on copper

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The primary negative influences on copper: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch

Here’s what this real-time barometer says about tariff-induced recession risks rising

“Recession worries and lack of concrete progress in trade relations between the U.S. and China remain the primary negative influences on copper,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter.

They said the “primary trend in copper is not one of higher or lower prices, but of volatility, which highlights trade-war uncertainty and an elevated sense of angst among global investors.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

There were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally

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There were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Can Trump’s “Happy Talk” keep the S&P 500 above 5,500? Strategist weighs in

According to Sevens Report, “there were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally, including (in order of importance): De-escalation of the trade war with China, de-escalation of the Trump/Powell feud, rising anticipation for the announcement of numerous trade deals, and solid Q1 earnings.”

However, Sevens Report cautioned that “none of these events are materially bullish,” and warned that while “still-negative sentiment helped the S&P 500 temporarily break through 5,500 on some good earnings or further trade de-escalation briefly, I do not think the news has turned good enough to sustain a rally.”

“Trump understands that firing Powell would hammer markets, so he (probably) won’t try it, but that doesn’t mean the negative headlines are done,” Sevens Report said.

They added, “The Fed meets next on Wednesday, May 7, and the Fed is very unlikely to cut rates at that meeting and that could draw Trump’s ire.”

On the trade front, Sevens Report noted that while tariff reductions are better than escalation, “the baseline level of tariffs will be much higher than it was in January and that will be a headwind on growth and a tailwind on inflation.”

Looking ahead, Sevens Report stated, “it is very unlikely that 2025 S&P 500 EPS expectations stay at $270,” suggesting that “a $10/share reduction to $260 (or even lower) seems more appropriate.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How much economic damage have tariffs done?

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How much economic damage have tariffs done?: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Is the stock market overvalued? Investors look for ‘economic damage’ from tariffs

Investors are hoping trade deals that reduce tariffs may be announced soon, which would help inform whether the U.S. stock market is currently overvalued, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

“‘How much economic damage have tariffs done?’ is one of the most important questions for investors right now because if the answer is ‘a lot,’ then this market is still substantially overvalued,” Essaye said in a note Monday. “If the answer is ‘not too much’ and tariff reduction occurs, then the case can be made for a sustainable rally (as long as we get consistent policy).”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The market is dying for any breadcrumb of positivity

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The market is dying for any breadcrumb of positivity: Tom Essaye Quoted in Inc.com

The Stock Market Is Desperate for Any Excuse to Rally

“The market is dying for any breadcrumb of positivity,” says Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research. “The market is flailing around.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Inc.com, published on April 23rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.