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The primary negative influences on copper

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The primary negative influences on copper: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch

Here’s what this real-time barometer says about tariff-induced recession risks rising

“Recession worries and lack of concrete progress in trade relations between the U.S. and China remain the primary negative influences on copper,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter.

They said the “primary trend in copper is not one of higher or lower prices, but of volatility, which highlights trade-war uncertainty and an elevated sense of angst among global investors.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

There were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally

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There were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Can Trump’s “Happy Talk” keep the S&P 500 above 5,500? Strategist weighs in

According to Sevens Report, “there were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally, including (in order of importance): De-escalation of the trade war with China, de-escalation of the Trump/Powell feud, rising anticipation for the announcement of numerous trade deals, and solid Q1 earnings.”

However, Sevens Report cautioned that “none of these events are materially bullish,” and warned that while “still-negative sentiment helped the S&P 500 temporarily break through 5,500 on some good earnings or further trade de-escalation briefly, I do not think the news has turned good enough to sustain a rally.”

“Trump understands that firing Powell would hammer markets, so he (probably) won’t try it, but that doesn’t mean the negative headlines are done,” Sevens Report said.

They added, “The Fed meets next on Wednesday, May 7, and the Fed is very unlikely to cut rates at that meeting and that could draw Trump’s ire.”

On the trade front, Sevens Report noted that while tariff reductions are better than escalation, “the baseline level of tariffs will be much higher than it was in January and that will be a headwind on growth and a tailwind on inflation.”

Looking ahead, Sevens Report stated, “it is very unlikely that 2025 S&P 500 EPS expectations stay at $270,” suggesting that “a $10/share reduction to $260 (or even lower) seems more appropriate.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How much economic damage have tariffs done?

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How much economic damage have tariffs done?: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Is the stock market overvalued? Investors look for ‘economic damage’ from tariffs

Investors are hoping trade deals that reduce tariffs may be announced soon, which would help inform whether the U.S. stock market is currently overvalued, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

“‘How much economic damage have tariffs done?’ is one of the most important questions for investors right now because if the answer is ‘a lot,’ then this market is still substantially overvalued,” Essaye said in a note Monday. “If the answer is ‘not too much’ and tariff reduction occurs, then the case can be made for a sustainable rally (as long as we get consistent policy).”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The market is dying for any breadcrumb of positivity

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The market is dying for any breadcrumb of positivity: Tom Essaye Quoted in Inc.com

The Stock Market Is Desperate for Any Excuse to Rally

“The market is dying for any breadcrumb of positivity,” says Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research. “The market is flailing around.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Inc.com, published on April 23rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Erode this idea of solid structure of the government

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Erode this idea of solid structure of the government: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Trump attacks on Powell a “potentially large negative” for markets – Sevens Report

In a note to clients, the Sevens Report analysts argued that if Trump moves to encroach on the Fed’s independence, it could lead to a legal showdown that would exacerbate recent worries over an uncertain business outlook, and possibly send the benchmark S&P 500 down below 5,000.

“Put plainly, global investors buy U.S. assets and come to the U.S. to innovate because they know the rules (the court system is well established and broadly viewed as impartial) and these rules don’t change based on the latest elections or on which power is in control in Washington,” the analysts wrote.

Trump’s recent scathing attacks on Powell, however, “erode this idea of solid structure of the government and as such, erode the idea of American economic exceptionalism,” they added.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on April 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Trump Attacking Powell Is a Potentially Large Negative

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Trump Attacking Powell Is a Potentially Large Negative
  • Chart – Dollar Index’s 10% YTD Decline Underscores U.S. Policy Uncertainty

Equity futures are solidly higher in pre-market trade as investor focus shifts from political tensions to earnings as we approach the peak of the Q1 reporting season.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight and there is just one lesser-followed economic report due out in the U.S. today: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -5.0) which is unlikely to materially move markets.

There are several Fed officials scheduled to speak today including Jefferson (9:00 a.m. ET), Harker (9:30 a.m. ET), Kashkari (1:40 p.m. ET), and Barkin (2:30 p.m. ET). Given Trump’s recent attacks on Powell’s Fed leadership, their comments have the potential to trigger risk-on or risk-off money flows in intraday trade today.

In the afternoon, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Because the 2-Yr is viewed as a “policy-rate-sensitive” Treasury security, the level of demand for the Notes could lead to yield swings that could ultimately impact the stock market.

Finally, earnings season is in full swing this week with notable quarterly results due from VZ ($1.15), GE ($1.26), LMT ($6.32), TSLA ($0.35), and COF ($3.70) today. There will be particular focus on guidance, forecasts, and commentary from leadership as forward earnings expectations have both deteriorated and become increasingly uncertain since the start of the year.

What Happens If Markets Tire of Trade Headlines?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Happens If Markets Tire of Trade Headlines
  • NY Fed Inflation Expectations (Chart)

Futures are slightly higher on news that President Trump is considering a “tariff pause” for automobile imports which offset reports that China is halting U.S. aircraft imports.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey was mixed as Current Conditions were better than feared at -81.2 (E: -86.0), while Economic Sentiment badly missed at -14 (E: 10.0) which underscores the still broad sense of global economic uncertainty.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-10.0) and Import & Export Prices data (E: 0.0% m/m, 0.1% m/m) due to be released before the bell.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker to watch mid-day: Barkin (11:35 a.m. ET) and earnings season continues with several important companies reporting quarterly results including BAC ($0.81), C ($1.84), JNJ ($2.57), and UAL ($0.80).

Three Important Takeaways from Last Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Important Takeaways from Last Week
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Trade War De-escalation Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is Growth Still Solid? (First April Readings This Week)

Futures are sharply higher on further de-escalation of the global trade war over the weekend.

The Trump Administration exempted most electronics from Chinese and reciprocal tariffs, reducing the tariff headwind on the economy and further de-escalating the trade war.

This week has several important economic reports looming but today the calendar is quiet.

So, focus will stay on trade headlines while we also get several Fed speakers including Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET), Waller (1:00 p.m. ET), Harker (6:00 p.m. ET) and Bostic (7:40 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to heat up and reports we’re watching today include GS ($12.71) and MTB ($3.41).

The Biggest Takeaway from Trump’s Tariff Reversal

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Biggest Takeaway from Trump’s Tariff Reversal
  • Why Are the Dollar and Treasuries Falling? (Not Good)
  • Monthly Bitcoin Update

Futures are modestly higher as markets bounce from Thursday’s declines, despite further trade war escalation.

China increased tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, further escalating the global trade war, although markets, for now, are digesting the move.

Today focus will remain on economic data via PPI (E: 0.02% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 55.0).  Like Thursday, better than expected numbers won’t help stocks in the near term (they are totally dominated by trade and global macro trends right now) but it will push back on stagflation fears (which is an underlying positive).

Looking at the Fed, there are several speakers again today, including Collins (9:00 a.m. ET), Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (11:00 a.m. ET), although they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season begins in earnest and important reports today include:  JPM ($4.62), BLK ($10.43), WFC ($1.23), and MS ($2.23).

Sevens Report founder and president Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance to discuss recent events

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Why short sellers are ‘very nervous’ as markets stay volatile: Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance

Why short sellers are ‘very nervous’ as markets stay volatile

The Sevens Report founder and president Tom Essaye joins Catalysts to discuss how recent events are shifting market sentiment, his current bullish stance on bonds, and the outlook for both stocks and bonds amid ongoing volatility.

Tom Essaye Interview - Yahoo Finance

Also, click here to view the full interview featured on Yahoo Finance, published on April 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.