Posts

Why Stocks Have Really Pulled Back

/in , /by

Why Stocks Have Really Pulled Back: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Have Really Pulled Back
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will the Fed and Growth Data Make the Pullback Worse This Week?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  A Very Busy Week (Fed Wednesday, Jobs Report Friday)

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news as markets digest last week’s gains ahead of a busy and important week of catalysts.

Economically, Spanish Core HICP (their CPI) rose 2.9% vs. (E) 3.3% y/y, offering a positive note on inflation.

Geo-politically, Secretary of State Blinken is in the Mid-East to push for another Gaza ceasefire and oil is down slightly in response.

Looking forward, this is a very busy and important week filled with numerous potential catalysts including Wednesday’s Fed decision and Friday’s jobs report, but the week starts slowly from a data standpoint as there are no notable reports today.

On earnings, we get some important updates from semiconductor companies today and reports we’re watching include: ON ($1.04), NXPI ($3.16), SOFI ($0.01).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Core PCE Price Index Preview (Next Potential Catalyst)

/in , /by

Core PCE Price Index Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Core PCE Price Index Preview (Next Potential Catalyst)

Futures are solidly higher following better than expected tech earnings overnight.

GOOGL (up 12% pre-open) and MSFT (up 4% pre-open) posted strong earnings results and that’s leading a rebound in tech stocks and pushing futures higher.

Economically, the Bank of Japan rate decision was slightly dovish as it kept rate unchanged and didn’t reduce QE.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and the bottom line is this number needs to be at, or ideally under, expectations to help further fuel the earnings driven bounce in futures.  The other economic report today is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (E: 77.9, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 3.1%) but barring a jump in inflation expectations, it shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Today, we’re in a very, very classic ‘bad is good’ reaction to the Flash PMIs

/in , /by

Today, we’re in a very, very classic ‘bad is good’ reaction to the Flash PMIs: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Weak Manufacturing Data Is Lifting the Stock Market, Sending Yields Lower

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that though upbeat earnings reports set a positive tone, the market was gaining after the S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI came in lower than expectations. The US Manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low of 49.9 in April from 51.9 in March.

“Today, we’re in a very, very classic ‘bad is good’ reaction to the Flash PMIs,” Essaye says. “So now you’re seeing yields off and stocks rebound—so kind of a reverse of what we’ve seen in the last two and a half weeks.”

Essaye says the latest earnings reports are helping, though he doesn’t believe it’s the reason stocks are up across the board.

“I don’t think earnings would cause this rally if the PMIs had been strong, or the price metrics were higher or anything like that,” he says. “But given the soft data, I think that earnings are adding fuel to the fire. And I think that’s a positive for markets.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Still “a simmering” geopolitical fear bid in the global oil market

/in , /by

Still “a simmering” geopolitical fear bid in the global oil market: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices remain at more than 3-week low as Iranian crude supply concerns ease

Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report Research, said there is still “a simmering” geopolitical fear bid in the global oil market which is keeping futures above the $80-a-barrel level, and that fear bid will remain in the market until there is some “more formal” ceasefire agreed upon in the Middle East.

Outside geopolitics, higher-for-longer policy rates are a risk to demand down the road, but for now most economic data remains robust and supports the case for futures to sustain prices above $80 in the near term, Essaye said in a Tuesday client note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on April 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Schwab Network

/in , /by

American Express (AXP) rises after beating earnings: Tom Essaye Interviewed on Schwab Network

AXP Rises After Earnings: Best Positioned Credit Card Stocks

American Express (AXP) rises after beating earnings. The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye and Morningstar’s Michael Miller discuss this as American Express’ 1Q revenue grew 11% year-over-year. They talk about the road ahead for American Express. They then go over the best positioned credit card stocks. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Also, click here to view the full interview published on April 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bull Market Warning From Dow Theory

/in , /by

Bull Market Warning From Dow Theory: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dow Theory Update: Transports Rolling Over (Charts Included)
  • Flash PMI Takeaways – Signs of Weakness
  • Has Gold Bottomed Yet (Probably Not)

Futures are higher on well-received guidance from “Mag-7” member TSLA (+11% pre-market) and U.S. semiconductor giant TXN (+7% pre-market) while economic data in Europe topped estimates overnight.

Economically, Australian CPI was “warm” at 1.0% vs. (E) 0.8% in Q1 which is supporting a modest rise in the aussie dollar while the German Ifo Survey’s Business Expectations Index firmed to 89.9 vs. (E) 88.9 helping bolster European shares.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Durable Goods Orders (E: 2.3%) and markets will be looking for a “goldilocks,” as-expected number as either a “hot” print would initiate a hawkish reaction while a “cold” print would rekindle growth concerns.

There are no Fed speakers today, but the Treasury will hold a 5-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which once again could move yields. A weak auction would send yields towards 5% which is another threat to this week’s robust relief rally.

Earnings season also continues to ramp up with BA (-$1.43), T ($0.53), and GD ($2.89) reporting results ahead of the open while META ($4.32), IBM ($1.59), F ($0.42), and CMG ($11.63) will report after the close. META will be the most important to watch as the results could either bolster this strong week-to-date rally that’s been led by tech, or de-rail it and send stocks back towards the Q2 lows.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations

/in , /by

Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil prices end mixed as traders weigh demand prospects, Middle East risks

“Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations, a strengthening dollar, and subsequent worries about the sustainability of economic growth in a high-rate/strong-dollar environment, are acting as headwinds on global oil prices,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. He added that the “simmering geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran is simultaneously keeping a fear-bid in the market.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What Makes The Pullback Worse?

/in , /by

What Makes The Pullback Worse? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes The Pullback Worse?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Earnings and Growth Data Stabilize Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Growth focus early in the week, important inflation report on Friday.

Futures are enjoying a modest rebound following a quiet weekend of news and ahead of an important week of earnings (especially in tech).

There are major tech earnings this week (TSLA, META, GOOG, MSFT) and tech stocks are bouncing this morning ahead of those reports.

There was no notable economic or geo-political news over the weekend.

This is a potentially busy week of economic data and earnings but it starts slowly, as today there’s only one economic report,  Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: 0.05), and that’s unlikely to move markets.

On earnings, the importance of the results increases this week.  Results we’re watching today include:  VZ ($1.12), TFC ($0.78), NUE ($3.62).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Has Really Changed In This Market?

/in , /by

What Has Really Changed In This Market? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Thoughts on the Israeli Strike in Iran
  • What Has Really Changed In This Market?
  • Oil Market:  Technicals vs. Fundamentals

Futures are moderately lower as Israel conducted a limited strike in Iran while NFLX guidance disappointed.

Israel struck an Iranian military base in response to the weekends’ drone attack, but the operation was small and viewed as an effort to de-escalate the situation.

NFLX posted strong earnings but mixed guidance and the stock is down 6% pre-market.

Today there are no economic reports and only one Fed speaker, Goolsbee at 10:30 a.m. ET, and on the dovish side of the spectrum so barring a hawkish tone from him, he shouldn’t move markets.

On the earnings front, results early in the season have been a bit disappointing and focus on earnings will increase (especially next week).  This market needs better results to help stabilize.  Earnings we’re watching today include:  AXP ($2.97), PG ($1.42) and SLB ($0.74).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The political hope is meeting a financial reality, Tyler Richey told ABC News.

/in , /by

The political hope is meeting a financial reality: Sevens Report Analyst, Tyler Richey, Quoted in ABC News

Why is Trump’s Truth Social stock plummeting?

“The political hope is meeting a financial reality,” Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, told ABC News.

“The valuation is just astronomical,” Richey said. “So it’s coming back to Earth.”

Supporters of Trump could seek to reverse the company’s declining stock price, Richey said.

“You may have some die-hard supporters come in and support the stock,” Richey said, noting that such a move could elicit a response from skeptics of Trump or the company.

“In this political environment, there’s just as many people that would bet against the stock as would be for it,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full ABC News article published on April 16th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.