Posts

Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel.

/in , , /by

Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

360 Round: Holiday Travel

Robby Silk and Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel. They both expect record air travel, with Airlines for America forecasting 54M flyers between Dec. 19-Jan. 6. Tom says it’s “not surprising” that travel remains strong, but notes that the industry has shrunk substantially over the last 20 years with mergers and bankruptcies.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on December 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

This Is The Type Of Political Chaos Markets Fear

/in , , /by

This Is The Type Of Political Chaos Markets Fear: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Magnificent 7 Stocks Are Rising to End a Rough Week

Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, wrote on Friday that stocks weren’t down “because of the shutdown itself, but instead because this is the type of political chaos markets fear in a second Trump term.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on December 20th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Fed Provided A Legitimate Surprise

/in , , /by

The Fed Provided A Legitimate Surprise: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Stock Market Needed a Washout. What Sentiment Says About What Comes Next.

The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye notes that two things in particular caught investors offside. First, the shift to fewer rate cuts in 2025 means that the Fed will be less of a force for good in the market than it was heading into the meeting. The language of the statement also changed in a way that suggested rate cuts could be off the table completely next year. “Bottom line, the Fed provided a legitimate surprise,” he writes.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on December 20th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts)

/in , , /by

What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts)
  • S&P Services PMI Takeaways – Slightly Hawkish

Futures are little changed this morning as global investors digest the solid rebound in stocks over the last two sessions amid largely as-expected economic data overnight.

Economically, Eurozone CPI met estimates with a 0.2% rise to 2.4% Y/Y in December while the EU Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.3%, also inline with expectations.

Today, market focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-77.6B), ISM Services PMI (E: 53.2), and JOLTS (E: 7.65 million) all due to be released this morning. The ISM report will be critical as a “hot” print is a risk to the early 2025 rally as it will support the case for a Fed “pause” in their rate cutting cycle and put upward pressure on yields.

There is also one Fed speaker who could shed light on FOMC policy plans (although that is not very likely): Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and the results will be important to watch as yesterday’s weak 3-Yr Note auction contributed to the afternoon rise in yields that weighed on stocks. So, the best-case scenario outcome for stocks is a solid auction that turns yields lower, ideally with the 10-Yr yield falling back below 4.60%.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Have Stocks Dropped?

/in , , /by

Why Have Stocks Dropped?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Have Stocks Dropped?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Goldilocks Data Fuel A Rebound?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Friday’s Jobs Report is the First Big Report of 2025.

Futures are extending Friday’s rally thanks to a rebound in political optimism and despite more mixed global economic data.

Mike Johnson was relatively easily re-elected Speaker of the House on Friday, providing a needed positive political event for markets and boosting pro-growth policy hopes.

Economically, global data remained lack luster as the UK Services PMI missed expectations (51.1 vs. (E) 51.4.).

Today focus will turn back to data with Factory Orders (E: -0.3%) and the December Services PMI (E: 58.5) and the more Goldilocks the readings, the more they’ll fuel this early bounce.  There is also one Fed speaker, Cook (9:15 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

Our Q4 ’24 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers last Thursday, complete with compliance backup and citations. We’re already receiving feedback about how it is saving advisors time and helping them communicate with their clients in this volatile environment!

You can view our Q3 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Credit Spreads Confirming Stock Market Weakness?

/in , , /by

Are Credit Spreads Confirming Stock Market Weakness?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Credit Spreads Confirming Stock Market Weakness?

Futures are slightly higher and are seeing a modest bounce following a generally quiet night of news.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was German Unemployment, which met expectations at 6.1%.

Politically, the House of Representatives will vote on a Speaker today and if Speaker Johnson fails to quickly win that election, it’ll be a market negative as it will raise doubts Republicans can actually pass tax cuts later in 2025.

Today is an important day for markets from a political perspective, it’s also important from an economic standpoint as we get the first of the “Big Three” monthly economic reports via the December ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.5).  Markets will want to see that number in-line to slightly lower, as a much better than expected number will likely see a repeat of yesterday, as the dollar and yields should rise and this early rally in stocks should fade as investors reduce expectations for future rate cuts.  Goldilocks data is needed for this stock market dip to end.

Speaking of the Fed, we get our first two speakers of 2025 in Barkin (11:00 a.m. ET), and Daly (5:30 p.m. ET) although they shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025

/in , , /by

A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on Politics (Does Johnson Get Re-elected as Speaker?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Another Slow Week But Important Reports Thursday and Friday

Futures are slightly weaker following a mostly quiet weekend of news and ahead of another holiday shortened trading week.

Economically, the only notable report was Spanish CPI, which came in hotter than expected at 2.8% y/y vs. (E) 2.6% y/y, reinforcing some fears of sticky inflation.

Politically, the first major event for the new U.S. Congress comes this Friday via the Speaker of the House election (markets will want to see current Speaker Johson re-elected).

Given the mid-week holiday this week is another relatively quiet one on the data front but there are some notable reports to watch today including Chicago PMI (E: 42.7), Pending Home Sales (E: 0.7%).  As is the case for the foreseeable future, anything Goldilocks (so in-line to slightly softer) is the preferred outcome for markets.

 

Sevens Report Q4 ’24 Quarterly Letter Coming Thursday. 

We can help you improve your client communication with little-to-no effort from you!

I am currently finishing the Q4 2024 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter and it will be delivered Thursday, January 2nd.

2024 was a great year, but there is a lot of uncertainty looming for markets in 2025, from politics, the Fed, economic growth and earnings.

Don’t let your clients get blindsided by negative events!

You can view our Q3 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Was Last Week A Preview of 2025?

/in , , /by

Was Last Week A Preview of 2025?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Last Week A Preview of 2025?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can the Santa Rally Re-start?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A Quiet Week, But Claims Thursday Matter

Futures are slightly weaker following a quiet weekend of news and ahead of the holiday-shortened trading week.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was UK GDP which was slightly weaker than expected, rising 0.9% vs. (E) 1.0%.

Politically, a U.S. government shutdown was averted as Congress passed a bill to fund the government but only through March, which adds complication to Republican plans to pass aggressive pro-growth legislation.

Today the only notable economic report is Consumer Confidence (E: 113.0) and barring a major surprise, it shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?

/in , , /by

Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Reasons the Fed Decision Caused Such a Big Selloff
  • Did the Fed Decision Weaken the Bull Market?

Futures are seeing a bounce following yesterday’s steep selloff despite more negative news overnight.

Politically, government shutdown risks spiked on Thursday after support for the stop-gap funding bill collapsed and a government shutdown on Friday is becoming more likely.

On earnings, Micron (MU) posted disappointing guidance and the stock is down –15% pre-open.

Today is another busy day of economic data and policy decisions.   The Bank of England has a rate decision (E: 25 bps cut) while there are numerous U.S. economic reports including, in order of importance,  Jobless Claims (E: 232K), Philly Fed (E: 2.5), Final Q3 GDP (E: 2.8%) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05 million).  The market needs Goldilocks data to help it hold this early bounce and any data that’s “Too Hot” (meaning much stronger than expected) will only increase hawkish Fed worries, push yields higher and likely hit stocks, again.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview (All About the Projections)

/in , , /by

FOMC Preview (All About the Projections): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – All About the Projections
  • NVDA Chart – Three Negative Technical Developments
  • Economic Data Takeaways – Empire Survey and PMIs “Goldilocks Enough”

Futures are moderately lower as mostly strong international economic data overnight is putting upward pressure on global bond yields as focus turns to this week’s central bank decisions, including the Fed tomorrow.

Economically, Germany’s December Ifo Survey was mixed with Current Conditions edging up to 85.1 vs. (E) 83.8 but Business Expectations declined to 84.4 vs. (E) 87.0 while UK wage growth jumped 5.2% y/y vs. (E) 4.6% which sent Gilt yields higher.

Today, trader focus will be on economic data early with Retail Sales (E: 0.5%), Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) and the Housing Market Index (E: 47) all due to be released.

However, with the FOMC meeting getting underway in Washington, market moves are likely to be limited (barring any material surprises) as a familiar sense of “Fed-Paralysis” is likely to begin gripping the market with tomorrow’s FOMC decision looming.

Finally, there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that has the potential to move yields and impact equity market trading but odds of that happening ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow are relatively low.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.