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Easing trade war angst

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Easing trade war angst: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Tesla Stock’s 12% Surge Powers Broader Comeback—As Investors Bet Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Won’t Be So Bad

The rally came thanks to “easing trade war angst” on Wall Street, explained Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, referencing Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal’s weekend reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect next week will be far more focused in nature than Trump previously suggested.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Six Market Questions Answered

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Explain This Market to Clients (Six Investor Questions Answered)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Q1’25 Correction Over?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat-Sheet: Focus on PMIs and PCE

U.S. stock futures are higher this morning as easing trade war angst is overshadowing soft EU economic data.

A Bloomberg article published on Saturday suggested that the Trump administration’s April 2nd tariff package would be more “targeted” in nature, a welcomed, positive trade war headline which is supporting risk-on money flows to start the week.

Economically, the Eurozone’s latest PMI Composite Flash rose to 50.4 vs. (E) 50.5 as weakness in Services offset strength in Manufacturing which is sending some mixed signals about the health of the EU economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, investor focus in the U.S. will be on economic data early as the U.S. Composite PMI Flash is due out shortly after the bell with the Manufacturing PMI seen easing to 51.8 while the Services PMI is expected to firm to 51.2. investors will want to see a “Goldilocks” data that neither prompts hawkish money flows nor rekindles growth worries.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers to watch: Bostic (1:45 p.m. ET) and Barr (3:10 p.m. ET) as well as a few late-season earnings reports due out from LUNR ($-0.08) and KBH ($1.56) but those catalysts are less likely to move markets  that the early economic data.

Bullish News for European Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish News for European Stocks
  • Why Did Stocks Drop?
  • Chart: Long-Term Bearish Reversal in Dow Theory

Futures are rebounding from yesterday’s ~1% pullback amid progress towards a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, “cool” inflation data overseas, and trader positioning into the Fed decision this afternoon.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell from 2.5% Y/Y to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% in February, which is being well received by investors in pre-market trade as the Fed decision comes into focus.

There are no notable economic reports today although there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy rate expectations with the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference looming later this afternoon.

The FOMC meeting announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET shortly before Fed Chair Powell’s mid-afternoon press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will almost certainly be the “main event” of the trading session as investors look for clarity on monetary policy outlook given the recent escalation in trade war developments and the subsequent sense of market uncertainty that has come with it.

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are a few consumer-focused companies reporting quarterly results today: WSM ($2.91), GIS ($0.95), and FIVE ($3.38).

A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased

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A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased: Analysts at Sevens Report Research Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices resume slide, ending lower as tariff fears spark stock-market tumble

Meanwhile, the prospect of Trump administration efforts leading to a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has “greatly increased,” and should the war come to an end sooner than expected, it’s likely sanctions on Russia’s energy industry could be lifted, adding a sizeable amount of crude to the global market, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday note.

“Combining those influences, it is becoming increasingly likely that a physical markets surplus emerges in the months ahead, which could send WTI futures prices down towards $50/barrel later in 2025,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview: Clarity on the “Fed Put”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Meeting Preview – Clarity on the “Fed Put”
  • Retail Sales & Empire State Manufacturing Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as the bounce off of last week’s multi-month lows is being digested while trader-focus is turning to the March FOMC meeting which begins today.

Economically, the March German ZEW Survey saw its headline edge up from -88.5 to -87.6 while the Economic Sentiment component jumped from 26.0 to 51.6 vs. (E) 35. The data was well received and is amplifying already elevated optimism surrounding a looming German parliament vote on a massive spending package (focused on defense spending) that is expected to bolster economic growth.

In the U.S., there are several economic reports to watch today including: Housing Starts (1.383M), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.1% m/m, -0.2% m/m), and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%), however with the Fed decision looming tomorrow, none are expected to meaningfully move markets today.

The only other noteworthy, potential catalysts today are a pair of Treasury auctions, the first for 52-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and the second for 20-Yr Bonds at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand in the shorter durations bills would be seen as dovish and “market-friendly” while too strong of demand for 20-Yr Bonds could rekindle worries about the economy.

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil

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A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in OilPrice.com

Trump Talks To End Ukraine War Involve Power Plants

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil prices if Trump pushes for the removal of sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Geopolitical stability may also “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.” Sanctions by the Biden administration roughly tripled the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd)

Also, click here to view the full article published by OilPrice.com on March 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Numbers Inside This Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Numbers Inside This Pullback
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update

Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce on positive trade headlines and decreased shutdown risks.

On trade, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said a meeting with Commerce Secretray Lutnick was “positive” and “productive,” creating some tentative trade optimism.

Elsewhere politically, Democrat minority leader Schumer signaled he’d support funding the government, reducing shutdown chances.

Today focus will stay on trade headlines (of course) while the key economic report today is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (E: 63.1).  Stability in that report will be encouraging for investors.  Markets will also be focused on the One-Year Inflation Expectations, which spiked to 4.3% on tariff fears.  Any decline in that number back towards 3.0% (where it was before tariffs) will be a positive.

Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as investors look ahead to trade meetings and data.

Economically, the only notable report was Euro Zone Industrial Production and it slightly missed expectations (0.8% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Politically, focus will be on two events today, the USMCA renegotiation talks between U.S. and Canadian officials and progress on avoiding a government shutdown on Friday.

Outside of trade and politics, today there are two important economic reports:  Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y).  Because of rising stagflation worries, investors will want to see better than expected numbers from both reports, while a jump in jobless claims would increase growth concerns and hotter than expected PPI would raise fears tariffs are boosting inflation (tariff price pressures will show up in PPI before CPI).

Trump’s comments are weighing on sentiment

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Friday’s nonfarm payrolls is the “first big report of the year”: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Stock Market Comeback Erased: S&P 500 Sinks To 6-Month Low As Trump Says Don’t ‘Watch The Stock Market’

Trump’s comments are “weighing on sentiment” and “did nothing to ease investor concerns about ongoing policy chaos,” Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote in a Monday note to clients.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The spike in uncertainty and fear that uncertainty will lead to a whole host of negatives

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The spike in uncertainty and fear: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Trump tariffs denting U.S. economy not a “foregone conclusion” – Sevens Report

Fears that uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could lead to a series of negative consequences for the broader economy are worth considering but not a “foregone conclusion,” according to analysts at Sevens Report.

“The reason stocks are dropping is the spike in uncertainty and fear that uncertainty will lead to a whole host of negatives,” the Sevens Report analysts wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

The near-constant stream of “scary” trade-related headlines has also fueled “louder and more frequent” predictions for “continued declines in stocks,” the analysts added.

However, “it’s fear driving this market,” not actual bad economic data or dire company results, they said.

“It’s right to be more cautious on this market and brace for continued volatility,” they added. “But that negative scenario is not a forgone conclusion …”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.