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Their comments shouldn’t move markets

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Their comments shouldn’t move markets: Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch

It’s a busy day for Fedspeak — but there’s one official worth listening to

“However, unless Williams is hawkish, their comments shouldn’t move markets,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%

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Still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%: Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Quoted in USA Today

US stocks end near flat as investors turn cautious, take profits ahead of China deal talks

An 80% tariff is down from a levy as high as 145% currently but still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Research Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on USA Today published on May 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Stocks Rallied Yesterday (It’s Not the U.S./U.K. Trade Deal)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Rallied Yesterday (It’s Not the U.S./U.K. Trade Deal)
  • Trump vs. Powell

Futures are modestly higher and are extending Thursday’s rally on more trade optimism.

Multiple media outlets boosted expectations for tariff relief at this weekend’s U.S./China meeting in Geneva.

Bloomberg and other media outlets are expecting tariffs on Chinese imports to be reduced to 50% or 60% (from the current 145%).

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are several Fed speakers including (in order of importance): Williams (11:30 a.m. ET), Waller (11:30 a.m. ET), Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (10:00 a.m. ET).  However, unless Williams is hawkish, their comments shouldn’t move markets.

Instead, trade anticipation should drive trading today and specifically any “chatter” about expectations for this weekend’s U.S./China trade meeting in Geneva (more optimism will push stocks higher while any negative commentary will pressure them).

Crypto would be “well-positioned” for a test of its all-time high

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Crypto would be “well-positioned” for a test of its all-time high: Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals Quoted in MarketWatch

Bitcoin rallies with stocks to top $100,000 again as exuberance returns to markets

The key resistance bands facing bitcoin lie in the $106,500 and $101,500  areas, according to Tyler Richey, technical analyst and co-editor at the Sevens Report. If bitcoin ends Thursday near its current level above $101,000, the crypto would be “well-positioned” for a test of its all-time high at $109,225, Richey told MarketWatch in emailed comments. 

However, if bitcoin falls below its near-term support level at $93,780, it may face a pullpack toward $80,000, Richey said. 

Still, the technical setup for bitcoin is less encouraging from a weekly timeframe with the relative strength index, a momentum indicator, standing above 50.

While the index is still positive, it is much lower than its recent peak in December, when the momentum reading hit a high at a bit below 80 and later powered bitcoin’s January rally, Richey noted.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are moderately higher on more trade optimism.

President Trump posted on social media that he would announce a new trade deal this morning (likely with the UK) and this is driving optimism for more tariff relief.

Economically, the only notable report was German Industrial Production, which beat estimates (3.0% vs. (E) 2.7%).

Today focus will remain on economic data and specifically Jobless Claims (E: 232K), as investors will want to see claims decline from last week’s spike.  If claims continue to rise, that will increase economic anxiety (and likely pressure stocks).  Other economic events today include a BOE Rate Decision (E: 25 bps cut) and U.S. Unit Labor Costs (E: 5.2%), which are an important measure of inflation (and again, the lower this number, the better).

On earnings, the season is virtually over but there are a few notable reports today:  SHOP ($0.17), COP ($2.06),  COIN ($2.04), MELI ($7.67), AFRM ($-0.08).

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update

Futures are higher on news the U.S. and China will hold preliminary trade talks in Switzerland Saturday which offset soft tech earnings from SMCI as focus turns to the Fed.

Economically, German Manufacturing Orders jumped 3.6% vs. (E) 1.0% while EU Retail Sales fell -0.1% vs. (E) 0.0%.

Looking ahead to the U.S. session, there is one economic report this afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $10.0B), but the data is unlikely to move markets given the afternoon Fed decision.

Trader focus will be on any trade headlines this morning before attention turns to the Fed with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET), and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) mid-afternoon.

There are some more late season earnings releases to watch that could move markets in pre-market/after-hours trade including: UBER ($0.51), DIS ($1.18), GOLD ($0.29), CVNA ($0.75), OXY ($0.73), and CLF ($-0.78).

Bottom line, focus is on the Fed today and while no change in the policy rate is expected, traders will be scrutinizing the meeting statement for any changes regarding economic uncertainty or hints on when the FOMC may lower rates next during Powell’s press conference. The more dovish the language and commentary, the better for equities today.

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways – Resilience Points to Soft Landing

Stock futures are lower thanks to a combination of weak earnings news and disappointing economic data overnight.

On the earnings front, PLTR missed estimates (shares down -8% in premarket trading) while F pulled 2025 guidance noting a tariff impact estimated to be -$2.5B on this year’s earnings.

Economically, China’s Service PMI fell to 50.7 vs. (E) 51.8 in April which dragged the Composite PMI down from 51.8 to 51.1, highlighting the negative impact the global trade war is having on the Chinese economy.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: International Trade Balance (E: -$136.3B). Typically, trade data is now widely followed, however given the trade war, a deeper than anticipated deficit could bolster recession angst.

Moving to the afternoon, the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The outcome of the former could shed light on near-term rate-cut odds while the latter auction could offer insight into growth and inflation expectations.

Finally, some late season earnings are due out today including: MAR ($2.27), CEG ($2.14), AMD ($0.75), SMCI ($0.21), and ET ($0.33).

Bottom line, good economic news and dovish money flows in Treasury auctions could help stabilize markets as the Fed meeting gets underway in Washington which will likely result in a growing sense of “Fed paralysis” as the session progresses today.

Reading Market Volatility: If, Then.

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Reading Market Volatility:  If, Then…

Futures are little changed despite solid earnings overnight and more signs of trade war de-escalation.

GOOGL posted stronger than expected results and tech earnings broadly last night were solid, boosting the sector.

On trade, China exempted several categories of U.S. imports from 125% tariffs in a further small de-escalation of trade tensions.

Trade headlines will continue to dominate intra-day trading today but there’s also a notable economic report this morning via University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 50.8).  The key part of this report will be the inflation expectations and estimates are as follows: One Year Inflation Expectations: 6.7%, Five-Year Inflation Expectations 4.4%.  If the actual data is hotter than those estimates, it will put upward pressure on yields and could weigh on stocks.

On earnings, results so far have been better than expected and that has helped this rally.  Notable results today include: ABBV ($2.40),  CHTR ($8.53) and PSX ($-0.77).

Is Silver Set to Breakout?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Silver Set to Breakout?

Futures are modestly weaker on digestion of this week’s rally and on mildly disappointing trade news.

Chinese officials stated there were no ongoing trade talks with the U.S. and again called for the removal of tariffs, pushing back on the “progress” narrative of the past few days.

Focus today will be on economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports today include Durable Goods (E: 1.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.12 million) and if this “hard” data remains solid it will push back against slowdown concerns.    There is also one Fed speaker, Kashkari (5:00 p.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, the key reports today include GOOGL ($2.02), INTC ($-0.14) and PG ($1.54).  For GOOGL and INTC, guidance will be key while investors will wait to see the impact of tariffs on PG’s quarter.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard (Hard Data Holding Up)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Hard Data Is Hanging in There

U.S. stock futures are solidly higher this morning with mega-cap tech leading while bonds are stabilizing after President Trump dialed back rhetoric about firing Fed Chair Powell and made encouraging comments on trade deal progress while TSLA is up 6%+ after Q1 earnings.

Economically, the EU Composite Flash PMI fell to 50.1 vs. (E) 50.4,in April down from 50.9 in March amid weakness in the Services index but investors are taking the disappointing data in stride, instead focusing on the reported trade deal progress.

Today, economic data in the U.S. will be in focus early in the day with the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.4) and Flash Services PMI (E: 52.5), as well as New Home Sales (E: 682K) data due to be released shortly after the open.

There are also multiple Fed speakers to watch today including: Goolsbee (9:00 a.m. ET), Waller (9:35 a.m. ET), and Hammack later in the day (6:30 p.m. ET).

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact bond markets and in turn move stocks in the early afternoon. The stronger the auction results the better after the recent rout in Treasuries.

Finally earnings season continues with notable releases due out from: BA ($-1.54), T ($0.52), IBM ($1.42), and CMG ($0.28).